Leonie Joubert
28 August 2009
analysis
Cape Town — Africa is the canary in the mine of global security, as climate change threatens to redraw the maps of the continent and the world.
A shift in global climate will reshape coastlines, alter disease prevalence, change where rain falls, and alter where people can find water, grow food and live, says Oli Brown, of the International Institute for Sustainable Development's (IISD). This could force communities and nations into conflict as they struggle to access resources or are forced into "distressed" migration.
"Africa is the first continent to fully feel the effect of climate change on political and economic stability (because of) its history of ethnic, resource and political conflict, and its reliance on climate sensitive sectors like rain fed agriculture", said Brown during a conference this month in Cape Town, which explored the relationship between climate change, resources and migration as a possible source of conflict on the continent.
But he cautioned against the assumption that African communities will automatically fight under conditions of stress. "We've seen around the region and the world that conditions of stress create conflict in some areas but not in others."
In the 1980s, debate around climate change hinged on concerns about environmental degradation. This later evolved into concern over energy and economics as countries began to grapple with how to slow the atmospheric pollution that was driving the problem. But, more recently, the debate has centred on broader concerns around national and regional security as climate change threatens to undermine international peace and stability.
Brown said that climate change should not be seen as a stand-alone problem but rather as one that threatens to amplify existing social and environmental pressures which drive human conflict, including desertification, water scarcity, land degradation and fisheries depletion. These converging crises are expected to reverse development trends across Africa, the continent regarded as one of the most vulnerable to the fallout of climatic shifts.
The elevation of climate change debate on the back of national security concerns is politically motivated, in part because of the need to inject a greater sense of urgency into global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
"If environment ministers talk about climate change, it's forgotten. If energy ministers or trade ministers talk about it, it gets a bit of attention. But the people who talk about security issues are prime ministers and presidents," said Brown. "Talking about climate change in security terms raises it to the realm of high politics."
Ebrahim Ismail Ebrahim, South Africa's Deputy Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, agreed that climate change was fast becoming one of the greatest global threats to stability, and that African needed strong early warning systems to help prevent future conflicts.
Given the nature of African conflicts, which permeate across borders, Ebrahim said climate change would aggravate territory and border disputes, migration, food insecurity and water stress.
Shrinking natural resources, combined with climate change, will cause more failed states and mass migration, added Heinrich Boll Foundation co-president, Ralf Fücks, who hosted the event at the Centre for the Book in Cape Town.
Noteworthy conflict zones include Darfur, northern Kenya, and along the Nile River, while distressed migration from the West Africa Sahel was already a point of concern.
Changes in rainfall patterns, along with increased evaporation driven by rising temperatures, will mean some places on the continent will face considerable decline in available water. This, along with increasing demand from a growing population, is a likely flashpoint for conflict. South Africa is expected to run out of available water reserves by 2025 and, under some climate modelling scenarios, the Nile River is expected to lose 20 percent of its water with the next century.
"There has been a huge amount of debate about whether there have been water wars in the past and whether there can be water wars in the future," said Brown.
Meanwhile parts of the Sahel and equatorial East Africa might actually see increased rainfall, although this could be accompanied by increased likelihood of flooding in the east.
Another possible conflict point is food security, where decreases in rainfall and extensive drought periods will slash crop yields in parts of the continent. Some climate models anticipate a decrease in agricultural harvests of as much as half by 2020, amidst growing population demands and rising malnutrition.
"Climate change and the impact of natural disasters, desertification, and changes in agricultural productivity could lead to unregulated population movement," said Brown.
Even though many communities use migration as a way to adapt successfully to climatic variability, increased pressure could see a ten-fold increase in the number of refugees and internally displaced people within the coming decades. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) predicts that some 200 million people around the world may be forced to migrate as climate change amplifies the existing causes of migration, like environmental stress and conflict over resources.
Large-scale distressed migration threatens to put previously separate groups into conflict over the same resources on the African continent. The cumulative effect of climate change, natural disasters, disease and food insecurity will also increase the likelihood of fragile states toppling over and becoming failed states.
While the "securitisation" of climate debate is driven by the need to bring greater urgency into international efforts to stabilise global warming at below the guardrail of 2°C, Brown cautioned that "dire predictions" of climate change bordered on scaremongering. This runs the risk of spreading climate fatigue amongst the public.
"This creates a sense of hopelessness and resignation in the face of an unbeatable challenge," he said.
Meanwhile Deputy Minister Ebrahim reiterated the need to focus on the root causes of conflicts in Africa, rather than just on managing their manifestations at flashpoints around the continent.
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The chances of that many billions of dollars being just handed over to assorted African countries are well less than zero. Of it coming in investments there is a possibility, but who should get it? If my tax dollars are going to be spent, then, like the rest of my fellow citizens, I’ll want a justification not only for the technology, but where it is to go. Would I want my money to go to Zimbabwe, where the madman Mugabe and his ZANU-PF killers still hold sway? Not on your life. How about Somalia? They can’t even stop killing themselves, let alone manage anything more complicated than an AK47. Liberia? A Big Yes, for there is in place a steady, democratically elected government that has made tremendous strides in improving life for its citizens, and forever buries the myth that an African country can only be led by a Big Man, who holds on to power by corruption and violence. Nigeria? While they have come a long way since the disastrous military dictatorships of the past, it would have to wait until they have finally conquered the beast that is official corruption; they’re getting closer every day. The Point here is simple : People can sit around in meetings & decide how much to “demand” from the rest of the world and talk all they want, but I can think of no advanced country that would simply bow down & say okay, how much do you want and who do I send the check to ~ it is not going to happen, and they are wasting their time and countries resources dreaming about it. The ‘talkers’ should try some ‘action’, and get their own countries house in order, before wanting to add a new wing, financed by someone else.
I am sad to hear that African countries gave away their role in climate negotiation and decided, though reluctantly , to be represented by Ethiopian leaders, just because Ethiopian leaders wanted to show off and hence pushed the "lets show off" cult. I think deeds must be taken as merits than talks. Ethiopia has not been succesful with any meaningful adaptation plan of action or have no registered CDM project, showing the countrly purely lacks practical leadership and intellectual competence of its environment office.I think countries like Ghana, Nigeria and Botswana deserve the leadership role!
This Global Warming Stuff Is A Complete Hoax . Man has so arrogantly told
God, by inference, that God the Creator didn’t Create things quite right. The United
Nations is just another attempt by Satan to build another Tower of Babel .
If you want to know some real truth tune in to Alex Jones’ Infowars broadcast.
You can listen 24 hours a day. It’s live for 4 hours and on continuous re-broadcast for the
other 20 hours. Here’s a link to articles on the Hoax of Global Warming.
[http://www.scroogle.org/cgi-bin/nbbw.cgi]
What is this hype of Global warming for ? It’s designed to give these phony
scientists ( who actually act like they were taking part in the Creation itself ) and the
organizations they represent control of the world’s natural resources. The GEORGIA
GUIDESTONES is consistent with United Nations goals for the world.
Here is a synopsis of the GEORGIA GUIDESTONES :
[The Agenda Of The Antichrist aka The Georgia Guidestones (GG) ]
10 POINTS LIKE THE 10 HORNS OR RELIGIONS OF THE BEAST
[Revelations 13:1]
And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having 7
heads (Kings) and 10 HORNS (Religious Kingdoms), and upon his horns ten crowns, and
upon his heads the name of blasphemy
THE GEORGIA GUIDESTONES
1) MAINTAIN HUMANITY'S POPULATION UNDER 500 MILLION IN
PERPETUAL BALANCE WITH NATURE
2) GUIDE REPRODUCTION WISELY —IMPROVING FITNESS AND DIVERSITY
3) UNITE HUMANITY WITH A LIVING NEW LANGUAGE
4) RULE PASSION — FAITH — TRADITION AND ALL THINGS WITH
TEMPERED REASON
5) PROTECT PEOPLE AND NATIONS WITH FAIR LAWS AND JUST COURTS
6) LET ALL NATIONS RULE INTERNALLY RESOLVING EXTERNAL DISPUTES
IN A WORLD COURT
7) AVOID PETTY LAWS AND USELESS OFFICIALS
8) BALANCE PERSONAL RIGHTS WITH SOCIAL DUTIES.
9) PRIZE TRUTH — BEAUTY — LOVE — SEEKING HARMONY WITH THE
INFINITE
10) BE NOT A CANCER ON THE EARTH — LEAVE ROOM FOR NATURE —
LEAVE ROOM FOR NATURE
In conclusion the directives for these GEORGIA GUIDESTONES call for : a) b) c) Elimination of around 7 billion residents d) e) f) Control of how many people are born g) h) i) The return of the system of ONE LANGUAGE as it was during the construction j) k) of the TOWER OF BABEL l) m) n) The other goals seem to infer that there isn’t currently a choice available to us that o) p) can help us to be better people. And there is a choice. q) r) s) But as the prophecy said in Daniel , The Beast/Antichrist will not allow any other t) u) worship, but of himself.
Global Warming and all this false human-directed unity is designed to appeal to our
personal pride , our lustful flesh and our unsatisfied eyes. But we can’t save our
selves. We children need OUR FATHER GOD to fight for us against our evil older
brethren Satan (formerly known as Lucifer) and His Fallen Followers.
CHECK OUT THIS EYE-OPENING VIDEO ON THE SCAM SWINDLE OF GLOBAL WARMING 1) T
HE GREAT GLOBAL WARMING SWINDLE
- URL – [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMA6sszChwQ]
Revelations 11:18
And the nations were angry, and your wrath is here, and the time of the dead, that they
should be judged, and that you should give reward to your servants the prophets, and to
the saints, and them that fear your name, small and great; AND SHOULD DESTROY
THEM WHICH DESTROY THE EARTH.
- FEED YOURSELVES SUGGESTION -
WE ARE MAKING HUNDREDS WHILE GIVING AWAY BILLIONS TO OUR ECONOMIC SLAVE MASTERS !!!
THERE IS NO REASON WHY WE CAN'T TAKE CONTROL OF OUR OWN COUNTRY !
NEIGHBORHOOD COOP GREENHOUSES
ANOTHER SUGGESTION IS FOR THOSE LIVING IN THE CITY TO POOL
THEIR RESOURCES TOGETHER AND MAKE NEIGHBORHOOD COOP
GREENHOUSES . HERE YOU CAN GROW SOME KIND OF FOODS AND NOT
BE TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON GROCERY STORES.
Scientists Debunk UN “Global Warming” [ http://www.infowars.com/scientists-debunk-un-global-warming/ ]
WAKE UP ! STAY UP MY BROTHERS & SISTERS ! BE SELF-SUFFICIENT IN THE KINGDOM OF HEAVEN.
[http://www.infowars.com/infowars.asx] / [gcnlive.com] / [http://alexjonesringtones.net/]
- Life Is a Game. Have Fun. [ Luke 18:17 / Isaiah 11:6 ]
SO PLEASE WAKE UP MY BROTHERS AND SISTERS. GOD IS ALL WE NEED. You are In My Prayers. God Bless Us. God Bless Africa.
This Global Warming Stuff Is A Complete Hoax . Man has so arrogantly told
God, by inference, that God the Creator didn’t Create things quite right. The United
Nations is just another attempt by Satan to build another Tower of Babel .
If you want to know some real truth tune in to Alex Jones’ Infowars broadcast.
You can listen 24 hours a day. It’s live for 4 hours and on continuous re-broadcast for the
other 20 hours. Here’s a link to articles on the Hoax of Global Warming.
[http://www.scroogle.org/cgi-bin/nbbw.cgi]
What is this hype of Global warming for ? It’s designed to give these phony
scientists ( who actually act like they were taking part in the Creation itself ) and the
organizations they represent control of the world’s natural resources. The GEORGIA
GUIDESTONES is consistent with United Nations goals for the world.
Here is a synopsis of the GEORGIA GUIDESTONES :
[The Agenda Of The Antichrist aka The Georgia Guidestones (GG) ]
10 POINTS LIKE THE 10 HORNS OR RELIGIONS OF THE BEAST
[Revelations 13:1]
And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having 7
heads (Kings) and 10 HORNS (Religious Kingdoms), and upon his horns ten crowns, and
upon his heads the name of blasphemy
THE GEORGIA GUIDESTONES
1) MAINTAIN HUMANITY'S POPULATION UNDER 500 MILLION IN
PERPETUAL BALANCE WITH NATURE
2) GUIDE REPRODUCTION WISELY —IMPROVING FITNESS AND DIVERSITY
3) UNITE HUMANITY WITH A LIVING NEW LANGUAGE
4) RULE PASSION — FAITH — TRADITION AND ALL THINGS WITH
TEMPERED REASON
5) PROTECT PEOPLE AND NATIONS WITH FAIR LAWS AND JUST COURTS
6) LET ALL NATIONS RULE INTERNALLY RESOLVING EXTERNAL DISPUTES
IN A WORLD COURT
7) AVOID PETTY LAWS AND USELESS OFFICIALS
8) BALANCE PERSONAL RIGHTS WITH SOCIAL DUTIES.
9) PRIZE TRUTH — BEAUTY — LOVE — SEEKING HARMONY WITH THE
INFINITE
10) BE NOT A CANCER ON THE EARTH — LEAVE ROOM FOR NATURE —
LEAVE ROOM FOR NATURE
In conclusion the directives for these GEORGIA GUIDESTONES call for : a) b) c) Elimination of around 7 billion residents d) e) f) Control of how many people are born g) h) i) The return of the system of ONE LANGUAGE as it was during the construction j) k) of the TOWER OF BABEL l) m) n) The other goals seem to infer that there isn’t currently a choice available to us that o) p) can help us to be better people. And there is a choice. q) r) s) But as the prophecy said in Daniel , The Beast/Antichrist will not allow any other t) u) worship, but of himself.
Global Warming and all this false human-directed unity is designed to appeal to our
personal pride , our lustful flesh and our unsatisfied eyes. But we can’t save our
selves. We children need OUR FATHER GOD to fight for us against our evil older
brethren Satan (formerly known as Lucifer) and His Fallen Followers.
CHECK OUT THIS EYE-OPENING VIDEO ON THE SCAM SWINDLE OF GLOBAL WARMING 1) T
HE GREAT GLOBAL WARMING SWINDLE
- URL – [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMA6sszChwQ]
Revelations 11:18
And the nations were angry, and your wrath is here, and the time of the dead, that they
should be judged, and that you should give reward to your servants the prophets, and to
the saints, and them that fear your name, small and great; AND SHOULD DESTROY
THEM WHICH DESTROY THE EARTH.
- FEED YOURSELVES SUGGESTION -
WE ARE MAKING HUNDREDS WHILE GIVING AWAY BILLIONS TO OUR ECONOMIC SLAVE MASTERS !!!
THERE IS NO REASON WHY WE CAN'T TAKE CONTROL OF OUR OWN COUNTRY !
NEIGHBORHOOD COOP GREENHOUSES
ANOTHER SUGGESTION IS FOR THOSE LIVING IN THE CITY TO POOL
THEIR RESOURCES TOGETHER AND MAKE NEIGHBORHOOD COOP
GREENHOUSES . HERE YOU CAN GROW SOME KIND OF FOODS AND NOT
BE TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON GROCERY STORES.
Scientists Debunk UN “Global Warming” [ http://www.infowars.com/scientists-debunk-un-global-warming/ ]
WAKE UP ! STAY UP MY BROTHERS & SISTERS ! BE SELF-SUFFICIENT IN THE KINGDOM OF HEAVEN.
[http://www.infowars.com/infowars.asx] / [gcnlive.com] / [http://alexjonesringtones.net/]
- Life Is a Game. Have Fun. [ Luke 18:17 / Isaiah 11:6 ]
SO PLEASE WAKE UP MY BROTHERS AND SISTERS. GOD IS ALL WE NEED. You are In My Prayers. God Bless Us. God Bless Africa.
See all comments (18).
Active Discussions: Africa Unites Over Climate Change