The Nation (Nairobi)

Cote d'Ivoire: It's a Tricky Affair As Poll Looms

analysis

Cote d'Ivoire is a country that has been divided in two since a coup attempt that spiralled into a rebel uprising against President Laurent Gbagbo in 2002.

Now ruled under a power-sharing agreement between the former leader of the rebels Mr Guillaume Soro and Mr Gbagbo, the country's presidential elections are set for November 29.

The polls have been announced and cancelled several times since 2005.

Even now, it appears this goal may not be met as rebel forces are yet to be disarmed.

From a country that was the model of peace in the volatile West African region, Cote d'Ivoire's peace and tranquility ended just before Christmas in 1999 when Henri Bedie, the man who succeeded longtime ruler Felix Houphouet-Boigny was overthrown in a coup led by General Robert Guei.

General Guei was later chased from power through an uprising after he refused to concede defeat in elections in 2000. Guei was later killed in the early stages of the civil war in 2002.

In 2009, having long forgotten the good years of the late Houphouet-Boigny, Cote d'Ivoire, the world top cocoa producer, can only turn to Ghana as an example of what can be called free and fair elections.

However, as he prepares for the November poll, President Gbagbo can also borrow from many examples of rigged elections in Mauritania, a rigged referendum by President Mamadou Tandja in Niger, a coup in Guinea-Bissau after the killing of President Joao Bernardo Vieira in March this year and much earlier in 2007, the rigged election that brought Nigerian President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua to power.

Continent-wide, President Gbagbo has examples of messed elections in Kenya and Zimbabwe and the power-grab by a mayor in Malagasy in March this year that ended the reign of President Marc Ravalomanana.

In South Africa, President Gbagbo has an example of a peaceful election that ushered in Jacob Zuma to power after corruption charges against him were lifted less than a month before the poll.

In Congo Brazzaville, as recent as July this year, President Gbagbo can study how President Denis Sassau Nguesso's claimed to have won by landslide a poll that was boycotted by the opposition but has now offered to share power with the opposition.

In Cote d'Ivoire's case, an election is no simple issue. It must arrange the inclusion of some 5,000 rebels in its national army and pay those who agree to disarm besides preparing a new voters' roll before the poll can be held.

This is an election that will be held in a country that has been divided between the Muslim North with its own stronghold in Bouake and the Christian South that comprises the commercial capital Abidjan and the political capital Yamoussoukro.

Just as happened in Burundi, where former rebel leader Pierre Nkurunziza was declared winner of elections in 2005 against incumbent president Domitien Ndayizeye, in Cote d'Ivoire, President Gbagbo may have to give way to Mr Soro with whom he has shared power since April 2007.

It is a tricky affair. In case of trouble -- nothing changes -- it remains split or goes for a new agreement in Ouagadougou, the Burkina Faso capital.

Mr Owuor is Daily Nation's Diplomatic and Foreign Affairs Writer.


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