Lagos — Though a definite statement is expected tomorrow, feelers from the 154th ordinary meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries confirmed the position of oil ministers at pre-summit meeting that the cartel is not in a hurry to alter the present production quota of member countries.

The Angolan Minister of Oil, who is also the President of 154th ordinary meeting of the cartel, Engr. JoseMarin Botello de Vas Concelo, confirmed this in his welcome address when he acknowledged that since their last meting on 28 May, there has been a general strengthening of oil prices, within a range of around US $60 to $73 a barrel for the cartel Reference Basket. This has provided welcome support for the industry's investment plans, after the gloomy outlook for much of the past year.

The president expressed concern about the continuing price volatility, which, he noted, is happening when there is plenty of crude in the market. '

"Indeed, OECD crude oil stocks are about ten per cent above the five-year average level. Downstream too, distillate stocks are at very high levels globally,"he said. "There is little doubt that oil prices have become very sensitive to external economic signals, such as dollar exchange rate fluctuations, stock market movements and unemployment trends.

"Two issues arise here.

The first is the degree to which high levels of speculation continue to influence oil prices. This issue is of great concern to OPEC and its member countries and, while some governments and other authorities have announced intentions to introduce regulatory guidelines, nothing concrete has yet materialized.

"And the second issue concerns the timing, the extent and the pace of global economic recovery. The general economic outlook has, to some extent, improved since our meeting in May. However, although OPEC's member countries have participated in and benefited from this recovery, there are still great uncertainties as far as price behaviour is concerned, not only for the remainder of 2009, but also well into the second half of 2010.

"As on so many occasions in the past, the challenges facing us at this conference include reaching an agreement that will ensure sound supply/demand fundamentals, for the benefit of member countries and the world at large."

He said generally OPEC members were optimistic that the darkest days of financial turmoil and economic recession awere behind them.

"This should leave us with more time to address bigger issues facing mankind, notably the eradication of poverty, sustainable development and the environment."

According to Vasconcelos, the upcoming climate change negotiations in Copenhagen will also demand attention at the meeting.

OPEC's Ministerial Monitoring Committee yesterday recommended the group leave quotas unchanged when it meets this evening, a view echoed by most OPEC ministers and analysts, with prices trading within a few dollars of the $75-a-barrel level favoured by Saudi King Abdullah.

Prices currently appear unaffected by high crude inventories, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said yesterday. In May, when OPEC met last, al-Naimi had said industry-held stockpiles in developed nations needed to be brought down to the equivalent of about 52 to 54 days worth of consumption, from 62 days.

"Economic growth is the name of the game," al-Naimi said in the lobby of his hotel. "Oil today is a commodity. As long as economic growth is there, the price is going to go up."

Speaking as ministers started their meeting, al-Naimi said today's oil prices meant that slipping compliance with OPEC production wasn't a problem.

OPEC agreed late last year to cut production targets by 4.2 million barrels a day after prices crashed more than $100 a barrel from a record set in July 2008.