Nairobi — Most people are familiar with the proverbial last straw that broke the camel's back. However, rarely does anyone get the chance to see the actual straw, and the moment when it is laid on.
The final stages of the breakdown of the always troubled relationship between Buganda and Uganda's NRM-led central government, may provide just the opportunity for such a rare sighting.
The political and diplomatic leadership of this region would serve their populations well by paying close attention to the dynamics of this disintegration.
When Uganda is unstable, nobody is safe, and such instability has historically stemmed from a breakdown on the relationship between Buganda and a central government that it had helped come to power.
At Independence, Obote became prime minister through his party's alliance with the Buganda monarchy. This is what put him within striking distance of the presidency, which he seized militarily in 1966.
Amin's subsequent coup was enthusiastically welcomed in Buganda on a wave of post-1966 sentiment. The NRM rode to power in a war that was largely premised on Ganda grievances.
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As each relationship breaks up, it paves the way for a new political dispensation.The current flashpoint has been reached courtesy of the attempts by the central government to restrict and control the movement of the Kabaka within the constitutionally defined area of his kingdom.
Two such tours have been challenged to date. The first, in October last year, was to the current district of Nakasongola (known as the Buganda district of Buruuli).
The second was just last week, where the Minister of Internal Affairs wrote to the king advising them to call off a visit to Kayunga district (known as Bugerere to the kingdom) citing "security concerns."
The government argued that the Kabaka's presence would be a provocation to the residents of those areas who it said objected to his presence on the grounds that they are not ethnic Baganda and therefore not actually part of the Buganda Kingdom.
IN THE FIRST CASE, AFTER A FEW perfunctory protests, police established a roadblock on the boundary of Nakasongola and would not let the Kabaka through. Despite their massive deployment at the district headquarters as well, they insisted that they "could not guarantee" the king's security.
The constitution lists both districts as part of the region of Buganda. In addition, the Traditional Rulers (Restitution) Assets and Properties Act of 1993 obliges the state to recognise listed cultural leaders, and to accord them certain privileges of which enhanced security is one. Accordingly, the kingdom handpicked 50 youth who were sent to the national army for training in VIP protection.
When the Kabaka's most recent tour was announced, the government also simultaneously announced that it was withdrawing these guards from the Kabaka, to be replaced by Military Police personnel unknown to him.
In short, if indeed his security "could not be guaranteed," it seemed to be partly because the guarantor had chosen to withdraw it!
Buganda dismisses all this as a charade aimed at thwarting its demands for land and federation. It says that these newfound kingdoms have never existed, and that the intention is to intimidate the kingdom into accepting the "regional tier" arrangement, whereby districts may voluntarily join the kingdom and also leave it at will -- which Museveni insists is the only offer on the table.
Both history and statistics seem to bear Buganda out.
The areas were added to Buganda's then ever-expanding territory through conquests from Bunyoro in the reigns of the 22nd and 26th Kabakas Mawanda (1738 to 1740) and Jjunju (1780 until 1797) respectively, long before the European colonial contact.
According to the last census in 2002, Kayunga district is home to nearly 300,000 residents from 11 listed ethnic groups. Baganda comprise 31 per cent of the populace, with no other single group making even 18 per cent. Those described as Banyala trailed in at 2.7 per cent or some 7,000 persons.
Buganda considers Bunyala as Baganda, and says that the regime's modus operandi is to identify a local elite network and put them up to the job of being as disruptive as possible, the incentive being the donations of the "public" land controlled by the district land boards, and "cultural recognition" by the Office of the President, as opposed to parliament, as per the constitutional requirement.
In the meantime, the Internal Affairs Ministry is doing an excellent job of radicalising Baganda youth by dousing them with tear gas in three days of riot, as they tried to erect exhibition stalls and a ceremonial archway for their big day. At one point, the demonstrators even seized control of the district headquarters building.
The Gaza-like scenes of their confronting the anti-riot units is likely to contribute significantly to Buganda's growing sense of living under colonial occupation.
Other reactions have been plentiful and clear. A Monday 7 sitting of the Kayunga District Council resolved that the tour was most welcome and preparations should be made for it.
As they proceeded through the town centre to inform the police, accompanied by two of the Kabaka's ministers, they were also teargassed. This provoked the Kabaka's Cabinet to resolve that they would proceed to Kayunga town as a body, to continue the embattled preparations.
National parliamentarians from Buganda as a region were equally incensed. On Thursday 10, the Buganda prime minister was turned back by a joint army/police roadblock as he tried to enter Kayunga.
The Cabinet had also rejected an entreaty sent secretly to them by the central government, telling them to either receive a delegation of the Bunyala "king" in Kampala, or make him part of the Kabaka's entourage for the tour.
AT THE TIME OF FILING THIS REPORT, the market area of Kampala, as well as some outlying suburbs, had erupted in reaction to the news of the blockade.
The police, having deployed massively in Kayunga (some 64 km northeast of the capital), initially found themselves hard-pressed to contain rampaging bands of Baganda youth, who were torching kiosks, arming themselves with makeshift weapons and forcing passers-by to sing Buganda's national anthem.
As shopkeepers closed their doors, the initial police response was to fire live rounds just above the rioters' heads while waiting for the arrival of the anti-riot squads, backed up by soldiers in armoured vehicles and club-wielding goons.
As the trouble spread, a group of soldiers scaled the wall of the tower hosting the Buganda Kingdom's main radio station transmitter, and ordered it turned off.
Beyond Buganda, it is actually Bunyoro's oilfields that probably lie at the heart of this problem. In return for pandering to Bunyoro's territorial demands, the NRM government expects Bunyoro to keep quiet over and stay distracted from the growing anomalies regarding the oil wells that the government is sinking on its land.
The prospecting features Heritage Oil, a company founded by Tony Buckingham, a former British mercenary and one-time partner of Simon Mann, the adventurer arrested in connection with the 2004 attempted coup in Equatorial Guinea.
The NRM has entered into confidential Production Sharing Agreements with the oil companies. This is in violation of the Uganda Access to Information Act, and possibly also the terms for trading on the London Stock Exchange, where the company is listed.
IN ADDITION, WHILE POLICY and legislation are yet to be fully put in place, units of the elite Presidential Guard Brigade have been sent to guard the oilfields, raising questions about how much transparency may be expected.
At a recent Oil Public Dialogue, I watched an expatriate manager flatly deny the presence of these units at the oil facilities. He did, however, admit to the presence of a contracted private security company. What he did not add was the fact that this security company is partly owned by the president's brother General "Salim Saleh" Akandwanaho, and is itself linked to other "security" companies in which Mann and Buckingham once had interests!
Likewise, it should be in the interest of the NRM to demonstrate a commitment to uphold and enforce the constitution that it wrote, instead of repeatedly violating constitutional provisions whenever it finds it politically expedient to do so.
As of now, everything suggests that the country has returned to the well-worn path to constitutional breakdown.
Kalundi Serumaga was arrested last Friday
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