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Nairobi — The government's emphasis on ethnic identity could trigger a "violent eruption" in the run-up to Ethiopia's scheduled elections in June, an international conflict-prevention group warned in a report last week.
"Paranoia" on the part of the former guerrilla fighters who now lead the country is cited as an impediment to a democratic system. The ruling party's "obsession with controlling political processes from the federal to the local level" is inciting opposition groups to consider taking up arms, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group says.
"Without genuine multiparty democracy," the report suggests, "the tensions and pressures in Ethiopia's polities will only grow, greatly increasing the possibility of a violent eruption that would destabilise the country and region."
The report is intended to pressure Ethiopia's leading benefactors to tie development aid more closely to political reform.
"Some donors appear to consider food security more important than democracy in Ethiopia, but they neglect the increased ethnic awareness and tensions created by the regionalisation policy and their potentially explosive consequences," the Crisis Group says.
Ethiopia ranks as one of the United States' chief allies in Africa. Washington annually provides Addis Ababa with hundreds of millions of dollars in aid while defending the ruling Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front from charges such as those levelled by the Crisis Group.
The Crisis Group's report acknowledges that Ethiopia has made economic progress under the rule of the party that overthrew a repressive Marxist-Leninist regime 18 years ago. The report also refrains from questioning the government's motives in promoting a system of ethnic federalism.
"But while the ruling EPRDF promises democracy," the 40-page analysis continues, "it has not accepted that the opposition is qualified to take power via the ballot box and tends to regard the expression of differing views and interests as a form of betrayal."
Feeling threatened by the emergence of a significant opposition, the ruling party resorted to repressive measures prior to the 2005 national elections.One paradoxical aspect of the report is its finding that the ruling party's authoritarian actions have not prevented opposition groups from proliferating in recent years.
This broadening of the political spectrum, coupled with the promotion of ethnic awareness and the government's unwillingness to share power, are identified by the Crisis Group as the factors that could push Ethiopia to a break point.
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Mr.Meles, the p.m. of Ethiopia for the last 20(twenty)years.He is the chairperson of the Ethiopian people democratic party(EPRDP).The country is divided into (9) nine ethnic regions such as the Tigregna,The Amhara,The Oromo,The Somali(Ogaden),The Gambella,The Beni-shanguil,The people of the south,The Afar.and the Hareri.IThen,the article iwas ethnic federalism-nothing is wrong in conistuting in that manner of government,but the problem did mr. meles implement,the answer is No.second,ethnic democracy-- democracy means the people for the people to the people by the people,if that is what democracy is meant,then did Mr.Meles implement this democracy,the answer is NO.then ,some intellectuals ask this question,why Mr.Meles is holding his country and people hostage and why he lie to his people that he will held an election that is fair and democractic.The International Crisis Group Predict what will happen in Ethiopia if a fair election isnot held which represent the different ethnic group of ethiopia.The answer is a violent country that will disentegrate the whole of ethiopia into nine (9) countries.My suggestion is therfore,inorder that not to happen the international community must stand and help this poor african nation,while requesting from the current Ethiopian government to held a fair election which is based on justice and peace.