Jo-Maré Duddy
14 October 2009
LOOKING at retail spending in Namibia in the second quarter of the year, it's hard to believe the country is in an economic crisis.
This was the consensus amongst those involved in the first IJG Retail Confidence Survey, released by the Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR) yesterday.
In the survey, 40 per cent of those interviewed said business conditions improved from April to June, while 45 per cent said it remained the same as in the first three months of the year.
Whether the spending was driven by Namibians or by Angolans, shopping here with US dollars, in not clear though, IJG Securities Managing Director Mark Spath said. How much of it was paid for in cash, is equally unknown.
What is clear, however, is that it is "business as usual".
IPPR Research Associate Leon Kufa, compiler of the survey, said mainly food and beverage retailers view the second quarter as better. They also expected business to pick up in the current quarter.
Some 15 per cent of respondents had a worse second quarter, while five per cent expect business to get even worse in the third quarter.
Revenue-wise, 55 per cent of the respondents, who include some of the biggest stores in Windhoek, expected to make more money in the third quarter.
Their optimism is fuelled by the "forecast increase in prices of basic goods, including food items", Kufa said.
Dampening retailers' spirits though, is the high incidence of theft in especially food and clothing stores.
"It is a very big problem. So big that retailers aren't sure whether the theft is due to inside jobs or outsiders," Kufa said.
Other challenges facing retailers are inflation, macroeconomic uncertainty, electricity prices and labour regulations.
Despite the favourable conditions expected in the third quarter, 89 per cent of respondents have no investment plans.
Ninety per cent of respondents said they would maintain the same workforce in the third quarter as they did in the second quarter.
"Encouragingly, no respondents have plans to shed labour, a positive sign after the shivers previously brought about by the global economic down-turn," Kufa said.
The IJG Retail Business Survey will assess business expectations on a quarterly basis. It follows the IJG Business Climate Index, released by the IPPR monthly, and the quarterly IJG Business Confidence Survey.
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