PERHAPS there is yet to be a fuel crisis in Zambia as massive in magnitude and with so far reaching security and political consequences as the one which followed the Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI) in 1965 and the economic blockade that ensued thereafter.

Neither has there in history been such corresponding mass national mobilisation of resources both human and financial to ensure the nationhood of Zambia was preserved.

Not known to many of us who were either too young or unborn to understand was that the sanctions were a deliberate ploy by then Rhodesian strongman Ian Smith and the apartheid regime of H Vewoerd of South Africa to destabilise and ensure the newly independent Zambia buckled down to its knees.

Smith and his clique contended that with land-locked Zambia's umbilical code strangled, it would not be long before president Kenneth Kaunda would soften his hard line stand on her southern neighbours and toy their line.

As perfectly calculated as this plot was, it was met with an equally determined sense of purpose as soon after, Zambia began to airlift its petroleum supplies and a new northern corridor was opened up through the infamous 'hell run', a 2,000 kilometre perilous dirt track through the Nakonde frontier to Dar-es-Salaam.

The nation survived to fight another day.

Forty four years later and the challenges in the petroleum sector vis-viz political manipulation and economic sabotage, seem to be as apparent and reminiscent to the 1965 fiasco.

If reports that some petroleum Oil Marketing Companies (OMC)s, had a hand in the current mini- shortage as reported, it needs to be investigated further, comprehensive reports made public and sanctions applied.

The nation should not be experiencing shortages. Do you sense as I do an invisible hand in this whole matter?

Granted that indeed there was an anticipated, or even an emergency closure of Indeni Petroleam Refinery in Ndola, there are clearly defined mechanisms which ensure that there is at least 15 days strategic reserves of fuel to see the nation through any crisis without a marked impact on industry or the motoring public.

Without apportioning blame to anyone at this point, it will still not help to gloss over such matters which border on national security and brush them aside in a laissez faire manner.

Zambia consumes approximately 700,000 litres of petrol and an estimated one million litres of diesel per day.

Going by Energy Minister Kenneth Konga's mathematics of 50 million litres diesel and 30 million litres of petrol emergency stocks imported by the Government with an additional 21 million diesel and 11 million of petrol by OMC's to avert a nationwide crisis, all should be well.

However, in our often-misunderstood era of market forces driven economy, we seem to leave so much to chance in the hope that someone somewhere will responsibly conduct our business for us.

Those proponents of these policies will argue that in the petroleum sector in Zambia, regulators such as the ERB which is supposed to protect consumer rights and encourage fair competition can only do so much; more reactionary than proactive.

The ERB is supposed to ensure there are no cartels or monopolies to protect the nation from being left to the mercies of such gangs but are they?

We have often left ourselves too exposed to foreign influences and our security can no longer be guaranteed, not especially if the issues at hand involves petroleum.

Without sounding too alarmist, just look around at the trouble spots in the world today, more than half of the wars going on have ownership and control of oil reserves as the underlying factor.

Nearer home in Africa, the Niger Delta, the oil fields of Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, name it, all the escalating conflicts in these regions are as a consequence of huge swathes of potential oil fields or the control of already developed petroleum refineries.

The Middle East is also one such hot spot that every foreign super power worth its name has had a hand in.

As for Zambia, her fortunes changed forever the day the Government announced it was stock piling uranium on a large scale at Lumwana and that the nation was undertaking a countrywide exploration for oil as a matter of priority

Other high value mineral resources such as manganese which also fetches very high on the world market has added to the international focus on this nation as a minerals power house.

With that background also comes the not too pleasant horde of sharks who will want the ultimate control of such wealth and to meet their ends will be the need to have a certain degree if not all of political power and appeal to the ordinary person on the ground.

Much caution therefore, needs to be taken henceforth not to allow such seemingly harmless disruptions in the delicate supply of petroleum because this could be a sure recipe of trouble brewing.

The link between petroleum, politics and the influence of the ordinary citizens is clearly defined and the Government would do well to establish stricter laws which govern and protect the oil sector from subversive elements.

Another consideration by the executive and the legislature would be to reconstitute a completely new public company which will deal with the purchase, distribution and retailing of oil alongside those privately run.

With such a plan, it would be easier to eliminate the manipulation of specific politicians from the talons of powerful oil barons seeking political influence over poorer majorities

This would keep in check all those cartels and monopolies which have proven too powerful for the ERB alone to deal with.

Being reactive can one day prove too costly. There is no excuse in my view to have a disruption without any prior warning at any point in the chain of supply of fuel.

The same way, the Government has legislated against rogue NGOs, is the same way such powerful and influential international oil companies can be put in check to avoid the worst.