Lagos — On the Niger Delta, there is a critical convergence of interests and calculations in current efforts at stabilization. That convergence, quite contrary to advertised intentions, seems programmed to deliver an easily recognizable political outcome in the country in 2011.

The challenge for the Niger Delta itself, however, is to discover itself and leverage its new geo-strategic prominence to ensure a political trajectory that guarantees its peculiar group interest beyond 2011. Between the short term political calculations of today's power merchants and the long term interests of a region that has borne the burden of Nigeria's inequitable federalism, President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua is riding a grisly tiger. I would be surprised if the president's unusual interest in the stability of the Niger Delta region is not more than in the line of his duty as president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

The president, I presume like all honest Nigerians, is interested in peace, justice and equity in the Niger Delta. His place as chief security officer of the nation demands no less. Nigeria's national security similarly dictates that much. Our trading and development partners expect that as a minimum. The international community, especially those with a strategic stake in global energy security and the place of the Gulf of Guinea in that calculus also have an overriding interest in the matter.

The state governments in the region need the calm to advance their development efforts. The Nigerian public needs peace and quiet in the region to be able to distinguish between governors in the region who are serious about development and those who have fed on the excuse of militancy and instability to hoodwink their own people. The ordinary people of the region and other Nigerians who live and work in the area deserve some respite from a recent past marred by all too frequent episodes of violence and sometimes induced insecurity.

President Yar'Adua may not possess an abundance of the magic of transformative leadership that the challenges of the moment in our national life demand. Some would argue that he cares little about the rudiments of smart governance in its contemporary meaning to the degree that most enlightened Nigerians expect. His gift of the garb is even more debatable. Nor would he score too highly on the scale of charisma.

Increasingly, however, what may not be easily taken away from him are certain arcane and acute sense of the political and the dynamics of power. The man knows where his power comes from, what he needs to do to keep it and precisely what the essential kits are for survival in the brackish waters of Nigerian politics. He also knows those he needs to stay in power. In a bad place, the man of power needs bad guys to stay afloat. Those intent on choosing friends for the president had better take this lesson to heart.

The core states of the Niger Delta receive between them nearly 50 per cent of the national budget of N3 trillion with only a population of less than 20 million of our estimated 150 million. All the core Niger Delta states are solidly Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). As the amnesty process has made obvious, the area also harbours the largest pool of illegal arms in the hands of an assortment of criminal and semi criminal gangs. In terms of possession of arms, the region, maybe accidentally, ranks only next to the combined official armed forces in terms of volume of small and medium arms possession.

Similarly, one of the most significant geo-political developments that has taken place in recent Nigerian history is the rise of the South-south zone as an area of great political and economic power. Its growing influence spans the major strategic sectors of the new economy. Media: AIT, Ray power, Silverbird, Channels, THISDAY, The Guardian, Vanguard, Independent That is over 75 per cent of print run and privately-owned electronic media audience. Aviation: Aero Contractors and Arik - both control a modern fleet that is more than 65 per cent of the total domestic airline operations. Banking: Zenith, UBA, Oceanic, FinBank, BankPHB, Springbank etc. were, until very recently, arguably mostly South-south in control and critical stakes.

We are therefore dealing with an emergent zone of immense power and prosperity, complete with power elite, home to the most strategic national resources, strategic natural location, a militant force (military wing), considerable economic and media power and an increasingly trenchant public relations presence that resonates internationally. In terms of the major indices of power identified by that eccentric philosopher, Bertrand Russel, the Niger Delta possesses a critical majority.

Therefore, no enlightened Nigerian sovereign can afford the luxury of taking this region for granted any more. Nor can any political calculations on the future of the country make sense without factoring in the Niger Delta as a key determinant of outcomes. Therefore, a certain degree of engagement with the Niger Delta and the South-south region is integral to any enlightened exercise of power in the new Nigerian federation. And that is what Yar'Adua is currently doing. The reality of this engagement has never been lost on recent Nigerian leaderships. The only divergence is that leaders have related to the emerging importance of the region differently according to their relative enlightenment.

Gen. Ibrahim Babangida recognized the importance of the region to the economic continuation of the Nigerian federation and established OMPADEC while opening national debate on an appropriate revenue charge to accommodate the special ecological needs of the region. I suspect that the idea of the National Guard as a counter insurgency low intensity force which his administration embarked upon in its dying days may have been informed by a recognition of the security needs of the region among other flash points across the nation.

On the contrary, Gen. Sani Abacha related to the region from the supremacist ethos of a conqueror, jackboots and bayonets. Through the agency of a special military task force and the war like military administration of Dauda Komo, Abacha sought to shock the region into submission. The ultimate shock treatment was perhaps the criminal wasting of my friend Ken Saro Wiwa and his compatriots as well as the effective garrisoning of the region by ferocious troops. That adversarial relationship violated the rules of engagement between the northern power elite and the region, the unstated understanding that the region would remain the effective bulwark against the tested ambition of their immediate South-east neighbours. More fundamentally, the Abacha approach was a flagrant abuse of the elementary social contract between the state and the citizenry even if that state was a despotic imposition. Once Abacha violated these unwritten codes, he further isolated and radicalized the region and forced them to re-think their relationship with their erstwhile patrons. There is a sense in which the militarisation of the zone is partially a response to the Abacha extremity.

Obasanjo's approach was classic Machiavellian. To achieve unchallenged dominance for his ruling party, he did not oppose the engagement of armed thugs to advance his party's political fortunes. When some of these thugs became daring as in the Odi episode, he staged a scorched earth tactic as a reminder of the Abacha shock therapy. But at the same time, he moved quickly to establish the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) as a federal intervention agency to address the development needs of the region. When in spite of the NDDC, the political and youth leadership of the region remained restive; he convened the ill-fated constitutional conference to debate the future of the federation which was synonymous with his Third Term project. When the leadership for the Niger Delta insisted that a higher percentage of national oil revenue (25 per cent) should accrue to the region, Obasanjo quickly disbanded the conference and moved to the higher grounds of the National Assembly to press his project.

It is curious that the militancy problem that Yar'Adua inherited festered under Obasanjo, himself an army general with no want of brutality. I have heard it argued in some quarters that Obasanjo turned a blind eye to militancy and violent instability in the Niger Delta in order to divert oil sector investment and operational control centres to his South-west zone, especially Lagos. Those who hold this view are ready to point to statistical increases in helicopter traffic between Lagos and the oil fields as well as the astronomical real estate demand and prices in the Victoria Island, Lekki and Epe axis of Lagos at the height of the militancy problem in the Niger Delta. The oil majors did move their operations and non-operational assets out of the Niger Delta at the height of the insurgency.

Enter President Yar'Adua. He has done some shooting in the area using the JTF if only to drive home the fact that the Nigerian state has the residual responsibility of enforcing the law if a soft approach fails. But clearly, Yar'Adua's amnesty initiative represents a higher level of political enlightenment on the matter than previously exhibited. It is far better to be seen as a friend of the Niger Delta than as a conquering colonist. Second, it is wiser to reduce the collateral damage of a possible military assault which could further alienate the region and reduce oil output to a level that could make Nigeria untenable. It is also more publicly appealing to embark on advertised infrastructure and social development of the region now ahead of the next election season. Add to it the proposed oil sector reform bill with the sweeteners for the region and you have the makings of a good rehearsal political campaign for 2011.

The wisdom in all these could be as follows: The Niger Delta region is solidly PDP, even more so than the core north. The president knows that his northern base is not totally behind his continuation beyond a first term. Even if it was, the trove of cash that he needs to carry the rest of the country along cannot come from impoverished states. Both financially and in terms of key campaign issues, the Niger Delta will play a determining role in the next general election. To a great extent, therefore, the governors of the Niger Delta states have a historic burden. They need to use this opportunity to drive the advantages of the region to maximum advantage for their people. Beyond their individual political survival, they must seize this moment to extract the greatest benefits and advantages for their peoples.

Even then, there is a need for critical detachments. Let us detach the desperate development needs of the Niger Delta from the exigencies of present day political contest. Let us also detach the interests of the people themselves from the cosy compromises of their elite or the appeasement of selected militants and war lords. If we allow the crisis of development in the Niger Delta to be drowned by the imminent noise of 2011 political succession, we may just be deferring an avoidable apocalypse.