Nairobi — Kenya needs Sh73.9 billion over the next 10 years to make 853,000 new connections under the Rural Electrification Programme.

The investment by grid extension and densification is detailed in a Rural Electrification Master Plan (REM) developed for the Ministry of Energy.

The plan projects an additional peak demand of 442MW as well as 580,000 of the new connections in rural areas in the period up to 2013.

"The focus of the REM is to provide electricity access to all target loads by 2012/13. Target loads consist of district headquarters, secondary schools, health facilities and trading centres," the executive summary of the plan recently presented to potential investors said.

This is despite an admission by Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi that an expected target of a 20 per cent rate of connection by 2010 would not be achieved.

"Indications are that the 20 per cent connectivity target by the end of next year will not be realised given that current connectivity in rural areas is about 10 per cent," Mr Kiraitu told donors recently.

The master plan also covers two Strategic Plan periods of REA: 2009-2013 and 2014-2018 initially developed by the ministry. It is considered a successor and has updated to the previous Master Plan of 1997.

It has been developed by consulting firm MVVdecon GmbH of Germany in co-operation with the Re-Enginering Africa Consortium based in Kenya.

Sessional paper Number 4 of 2004 on Energy set out goals to raise rural electricity connectivity from about 4 per cent then to 40 per cent by 2020. This led to the establishment of the Rural Electrification Authority with a mandate to fast track the process.

However, the penetration rate of power still remains low despite recent electrification efforts. Access is approximated at between 47 per cent and 50 per cent in high-density urban areas and 8 per cent and 10 per cent in other areas (rural).

Over the past two years, more than 122,000 consumers have been connected to the power grid across the country. In the recently concluded 2008/2009 fiscal year, connections are estimated to have hit 200,000 in both urban and rural settlements.

Single buyer model

"We want to continue with this programme and connect at least one million Kenyan households to electricity every five years," said Mr Kiraitu.

According to the plan presented to the ministry in August, Rift Valley and Eastern provinces account for 30 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively, of all connections in rural areas.

Coast and North Eastern Provinces have the lowest number of connections with a share of 5 per cent each.

The Kenyan electricity supply industry structure is based on the single buyer model. All electricity producers sell power in bulk to Kenya Power and Lighting Company, which, in turn, undertakes the dispatch, transmission, distribution and supply functions.

High voltage

The existing transmission network consists of 220 and 132 kV high-voltage transmission lines. The distribution network consists of 33 and 11 kV medium-voltage lines.

"The area around Nairobi and Mount Kenya is better served by Medium Voltage lines - in particular 11 kV lines compared to other areas. Western and Nyanza provinces have an extensive MV backbone, but penetration rates remain low," the master plan says.

The plan adds that based on KPLC data on grid location and population data obtained from the government at sub-location level, an estimated 63 per cent of Kenya's population of 37.2 million live in a sub-location served by existing 33 kV and 11 kV distribution lines.

However, there are an estimated one million households with access to an alternative source of electricity. Most of these have a battery-based system, some of which are connected to solar PV cells.