Consumer prices of Kenya's staple foods are expected to remain high for the rest of the year despite heavy rains, analysts said citing the steep drop in the volume of cereals being traded in the regional market.

Official market data shows that production shortfalls have particularly dealt a big blow to the maize market forcing cross-border movement of the produce to fall sharply in September due to high pricing.

That leaves Kenya with the option of relying more on imports from outside the continent that trade at higher prices on the shop shelves.

Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network (Ratin) data shows that the total grain trade movement in Eastern Africa dropped sharply with the main staple maize as the biggest loser that moved only 5,598 tonnes or 44 per cent less than the August stock.

The sharp drop in volumes has been accompanied by a steep rise in pricing that has pushed the cost of a tonne of maize to an average of $330 last month up from $244 in the same period last year, and is expected to cross the $400 mark by December.

In the international market, however, maize is selling at a price of $300 a tone - before factoring in the cost of freight, insurance, handling and profit mark up.

The volume of beans traded also fell by 76 per cent from 14,611 tonnes in August to 3,556 tonnes in September while rice flows declined 13 per cent to 800 tonnes in September.

The data include cereals handled by small scale traders that have been key indicators of how the regional market is playing out.

Kenya imports about 30 per cent of its monthly cereals consumption or 120, 000 tonnes from the regional markets to meet its food needs.

This forecast has however dropped by 40 per cent on high prices that have kept small traders from the market and an acute scarcity that is a challenge to big importers.

"The volume of maize traded this September is 79 per cent lower compared to September 2008 on account of unseasonably high prices this year," Ratin said adding that the drop in traded volumes could also have been "as a result of poor harvests in source countries."

Increased importation of cereals from the international markets comes at a time when analysts, including the IMF, have warned of a possible rise in maize prices driven by optimism over the global economic recovery--which is piling pressure on demand.

A two-kilogramme packet of maize flour is currently retailing at between Sh80 and Sh100 depending on the brand from a low of Sh48 in December driven by the failed crop in Kenya over the past two years that has forced the country to rely on expansive imports.

High prices of maize, which is Kenya's staple food has in turn played a big role in keeping inflation at double digit level.

Cereals production in the Eastern Africa has slumped in past two years leaving in its wake a scarcity that has continued to pile pressure on commodity prices.

In Dar es Salaam, maize price that had been relatively stable since September 2008 rose sharply in August to about $419 per tonne before declining to $333 per tonne last month as the market continued to receive maize supplies from surplus producing areas.

"However, in September 2009, the price was 27 percent higher than last year's price, at $244 tonnes," Ratin said.

Maize prices in Nairobi have to remained high compared to last year with statistics revealing that prices were last month 19 percent higher, at $387 tonnes, compared to September last year.

In Kampala, the price of maize has been stable at $310 per tonne between June and September as commodity supplies generally increased in major markets especially dry commodities from the first season harvests.

Most regional governments are currently looking up to improved weather patterns to try and reverse on their respective food deficit situation even though market studies have revealed that they are unlikely to yield much fruit.

In Kenya, for instances, the ongoing 2009 long rain season maize production is estimated at 1.84 million tonnes, which is 28 per cent below normal--adding to the fears of consumers who have in the recent months faced prices of up to 130 per cent above normal.

"There is a growing apprehension that the estimated production could further be revised downwards due to insufficient and erratic rains in some parts of the main maize producing areas in North Rift," the Kenya Food Security Steering Committee (KFSSG) said.