Cultural leaders in Uganda seem to be competing with political leaders in pulling big crowds. Sunday Monitor's Angelo Izama tells how the monarchs could influence the 2011 presidential elections:-

During the historic race between US President Barack Obama and John McCain which briefly displaced the soccer mania on Ugandan televisions, a political difference shone through the silver screen.

It was the distinct ideological persuasions of either man; one white and the other black, one, the other young, the other old, which was projected for the voter.

A mainstay of American politics; what it means to be Republican or Democrat is now taken for granted. The choice between a right leaning war hero-turned career senator like Mr McCain and his newbie Democratic Party challenger from Chicago is often examined by the direction their ideologies drive their policies.

It's not limited to the record of previous Republican or Democratic governments while in office. For many a Ugandan watching the back and forth at US presidential campaign debates and numerous town hall meetings in 2008 the fact that Obama was a black man stood out.

While unrelated, the dearth of real ideological choices to make at election time is one thing that will always confront the Ugandan voter and in a way define the nature of electoral competition in the country. Ballot day choices are less nuanced or issue based. What tends to inform voters choices in such earthly matters is the tribe or ethnicity of given candidates.

Tribes in Parliament

As such, in Parliament elected leaders tend to coalesce around tribal caucuses which, like the Buganda Caucus or Acholi Parliamentary Group, behave more cohesively than the political parties when regional issues are at stake.

Local elections, according to political analysts, are often determined by how a candidate's alliances at a national stage influence his or her constituencies' ethnic preferences. And indeed sometimes where ethnic quarrels like "sharing the national cake" are on the table- the option to respond to them as policy issues is trumped by the force of the political mob.

For example, over the years, demands by the Buganda Kingdom for special status has been made on the basis that if it existed in a federal relationship with the central government - its fortunes, particularly economic fortunes, would certainly improve.

"The Baganda are the largest ethnic group in Uganda, yet when it comes to politics they behave like an imperiled minority," wrote Ugandan Prof. Mahmood Mamdani in a speech he delivered at the 3rd annual Abu Mayanja Memorial lecture recently.

Where as Prof. Mamdani pointed out Buganda appears to behave like a disadvantaged minority - it is in fact top in a composite ranking of major ethnic groupings when one looks at the national figures.

Unlike in the US or Western world, there is no left of centre or right of centre. Instead what we have is the sitting government and its opponents captured by the campaign slogan of 'Agende' (Let him go!) of Dr Kizza Besigye.

Since the 2006 general elections, the only other major political current has been the resurgence of kingdoms or cultural institutions which are officially banned from directly participating in partisan politics.

In Buganda, the tension between Mengo's interests and that of the ruling National Resistance Movement government erupted into the spontaneous September 10-12 riots which Police say left 27 people dead although other counts place the death toll at 40.

It begs the question, say political wonks, whether the influence of organisations or 'institutions' representing distinct ethnic groups will from now on be felt in the choices voters make on ballot day.

So far there are broad trends that could be upset by the new profile of ethnic identity associated with the political manoeuvring of political parties and candidates.

How regions voted

In the last election, officially there were one million Buganda votes, majority of which (700,000) were cast for Mr Museveni and the NRM. After recent events, this may well change say some observers.

In traditionally non-kingdom areas like Acholi sub-region, where the brunt of the two-decade northern Uganda insurgency was felt most, voting has for long been an emotional and sometimes ethnic issue - all sub-counties in the last election voted against the NRM.

A similar anti-NRM tendency swept West Nile and Lango sub-regions. Only the constituencies of Vurra and Okoro voted for the NRM in West Nile. Seen by district Koboko, Yumbe, Moyo, Adjumani, Maracha/Terego, Arua, Nebbi, Amuru, Gulu, Kitgum, Pader, Oyam, Lira, Apac, Dokolo, Amolatar, Kaberamaido, Amuria, Katakwi, Soroti, Kumi, Pallisa, Bukedea voted for Dr Kizza Besigye. This result clearly cast the country into a bi-polar geo-political prism with the broader Bantu and non-Bantu divisions coming out more sharply.

In the north east, Karamoja has voted for Mr Museveni almost to a man. Districts in Karamoja have some of the highest percentages for the NRM. Nakapiripirit ranks second in the country for its concentration of NRM votes returning 92 per cent in 2006 and 5 per cent FDC in the last election.

Political watchers today place 'kingdoms' and districts in the same basket as vehicles for vote delivery which are being courted by all contenders. This could therefore produce a much more varied result in 2011 as vote consolidation may be difficult with the involvement of actors like cultural leaders.

This week, Africa's youngest monarch, King Oyo Nyimba Kabamba Iguru of Tooro reportedly told fellow royals he hosted at his home in Munyonyo, Kampala, to work for "unity". It is telling that Mr Museveni, as evidenced in his Independence Day message, has taken to emphasising the virtues of national unity. His lieutenants have since taken the cue and are parroting the same view.

On Thursday evening King Oyo's guests, who hailed from various traditional kingdoms and chiefdoms from around Africa arrived at State House Entebbe for a presidential audience. Patronised by the Libyan leader, Col. Muammar Gadaffi, the Forum of Kings, Sheikhs, Princes and Traditional chiefs, shows some of the political downsides of holding the tail of the cultural politician.

Libyan influence

Seen largely as a body used by Col. Gadaffi to lobby African governments to accept a continental government - with him as a possible leader, the involvement of Ugandan kings and chiefs has been strongly opposed by the Ugandan government.

At the heart of the fear is that Libyan patronage in form of petro-dollars or may be even arms would provide culturally cohesive groups to mount a challenge to the political authority of Kampala.

In January, a planned meeting of cultural leaders in Kampala was banned by the government which also protested their inclusion at an African Union summit by Col. Gadaffi mid-this year. The two men squared off at the summit in Addis Ababa where those who attended said perplexed African presidents watched helplessly as voices were raised and threats issued between Mr Museveni and the eccentric colonel from Libya.

More recently, Libya was publicly accused by Mr Museveni of providing money to Buganda during the riots of September. Such a reaction to the perceived challenge, albeit by the largest and most resilient of the old cultural kingdoms, gives a sneak-peak into what the future holds.

Uganda's unitary republic today shares many things with the medley of kingdoms, chiefdoms and clans from which it was carved by the hand of colonial history almost 150 years ago. Apart from a common ancestry the seat of power fits just one person. Then there is the ceremony, pomp and grandeur that come with the sovereign.

While kings held perpetual power by virtue of birth; Ugandan presidents are supposed to be elected every five years and exercise only temporal authority. There is a caveat: without presidential term limits since 2005, a president may theoretically extend his temporal power indefinitely until death or some unforeseen malady claims him or her.

Since Independence in 1962, after negotiations to tuck in the residual power of kings left over from the British colonial experiment, there has been friction between the new centre of executive authority in Uganda and the remains of cultural authority that resided in the kingdoms that preceded it.

Following the Buganda riots in September, it has become clear that after 47 years cultural power described by Makerere University-based researcher and monarchist, Frederick Gulooba, as "soft power" can be in competition with the "hard" power of the centre. One analyst blames the Museveni government for giving political visibility to cultural kingdoms and ethnicity in general; thus legitimising their latterly inevitable dalliances with raw politics.

At the Mayanja lecture themed: "Buganda and Uganda at a crossroads", Prof. Mamdani said the reversion to tribe or tribal organisations especially after the controversial proposal by Mr Museveni to "ring-fence" elective positions in Bunyoro for the "indigenous" community is a continuation of the mischievous colonial policy of " divide and rule".

Prof. Mamdani argued that by providing different categories of rights based on race or tribe both the colonial government and now the NRM have maximised support. He proposes that Buganda find a way of uniting with other groups as a counterweight to officialdom.

"The first step in this project was marked by a programme of district creation. New districts have been created at a galloping rate. The number of districts has gone from 33 (1990) to 44 (1997) to 78 (2006) to 80 (June 2009)," Prof. Mamdani told his audience.

Royals speak out

Asked in various interviews [mostly off the record so as to speak freely] cultural opinion leaders say kingdoms, especially from the big five (Buganda, Bunyoro, Tooro, Busoga and even Ankole) will indeed have an impact the calculations of political actors.

"They (cultural leaders) may not express their political preferences publicly but in the privacy of their palaces they will express themselves," one high ranking royal said. He said private endorsements of candidates or parties will have the same impact as mobilisation of voters. "I expect that monarchists in Buganda will do well," he added. Buganda, however, is an easy pick. Partly because of historical reasons, Mengo (the seat of Buganda Kingdom) is the most politicised cultural institution and following its protracted battle with the centre - often on the airwaves over the land bill.

Mengo minister for research David Mpanga says because of this, the onus is on various political parties "to align themselves" with Buganda's interests.

"It's difficult, and not appropriate, to predict the vote for me partly because election results may not reflect the will of the people. There are allegations of rigging and tampering. No proper polling has been conducted to validate the outcome," he said, adding that problems like disputed numbers of voters complicate the debate.

"How will ghosts on the register vote? Are the ghosts Baganda for example," he asks in reference to a recent internal report of the NRM which claimed that up to one million ghost voters are hiding in the national voters register.

In Busoga and Bunyoro perceived government intervention will have disparate results says FDC publicist Wafula Oguttu.

"There is a backlash in Busoga because people think the government has interfered in the succession to the Kyabazinga. The killing of [Lt. Aggrey Mwonda, a UPDF officer attached contender Columbus Wambuzi Mulooki] showed the anger of the people," he said.

Mwonda died in a suspicious hit-and-run incident in early October at the height of running battles between two claimants to the throne of the late Kyabazinga Henry Wako Mulooki, a cultural monarch with close personal ties to Mr Museveni.

Prince William Gabula Nadiope who is competing for the throne has caused a split in Busoga, a place where ordinary folks, according to a former Kingdom Prime Minister Martin Mulumba, have not been close to the Kyabazingaship.

"In many ways the government has done to kingdoms what it did to local councils and districts. Where a kingdom is strong it creates small satellite kingdoms to compete with it," said one source. The source said this explained the tag and pull between the Baruuli/Banyala and Buganda.

Last month Charles Mumbere was crowned King of Rwenzururu. The function was attended by President Museveni and FDC's Besigye, a clear indication that the politicians were ready to wage battle on the field of culture.