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Mozambique: Provisional Election Results, Sunday Morning

1 November 2009

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Maputo — With almost three quarters of polling station results sheets processed by the Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE), the electoral branch of the Mozambican civil service, the shape of things to come following Wednesday's general election is very clear - Armando Guebuza has been re-elected president with around 75 per cent of the vote, and the ruling Frelimo Party will have between 75 and 80 per cent of the seats in the new parliament.

The latest national figures for the presidential election given by STAE, from 9,081 of the 12,595 polling stations on Mozambican territory are as follows (positions of candidates are as they appeared on the ballot paper):

Daviz Simango (MDM): 27,143 (9.3 per cent) Armando Guebuza (Frelimo): 2,302,279 (76.8 per cent) Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo): 417,347 (13.9 per cent)

In Maputo city, STAE is still missing the results sheets from three of the 791 polling stations. Thus the results from the capital remain:

Presidential election

Daviz Simango (MDM): 51,294 (15 per cent) Armando Guebuza (Frelimo): 275,864 (80 per cent) Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo): 16,385 (5 per cent)

Parliamentary election

Frelimo: 263,819 (76.6 per cent) Renamo: 18,902 (5 per cent) MDM: 56,136 (16.3 per cent)

The final three stations cannot make much difference. Applying the d'Hondt method of proportional representation in use in Mozambique, we can conclude with a reasonable degree of certainty that Frelimo will take 14 of the 18 Maputo City parliamentary seats, the MDM three and Renamo one.

In Maputo province, STAE has now processed the results from all 848 polling stations. We can be sure that Renamo will hang onto its one parliamentary seat from this province, but Frelimo will take the other 15. The full results are:

Presidential election

Daviz Simango (MDM): 26,577 (10 per cent) Armando Guebuza (Frelimo): 227,452 (85.7 per cent) Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo): 11,322 (4.3 per cent)

Parliamentary election

Frelimo: 230,551 (88 per cent) Renamo: 21,103 (8.1 per cent)

In Gaza, the Frelimo victory is so huge that, just as in 1999 and 2004, it will take all of the seats for this province. With 820 of the 882 polling stations processed (93 per cent), the results are:

Presidential election

Daviz Simango (MDM): 8,735 (2.5 per cent) Armando Guebuza (Frelimo): 342,034 (96.7 per cent) Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo): 2,831 (0.8 per cent)

Parliamentary election (787 polling stations)

Frelimo: 317,324 (97 per cent) Renamo: 3,560 (1.1 per cent)

In Inhambane, it now looks clear that the MDM cannot win a seat, and that Renamo will hang on to the one seat it currently holds in the province. Frelimo will take the other 15. The results from 705 of the 868 polling stations (81.2 per cent) are:

Presidential election

Daviz Simango (MDM): 17,041 (7.8 per cent) Armando Guebuza (Frelimo): 188,480 (86.4 per cent) Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo): 12,588 (5.8 per cent)

Parliamentary election

Frelimo: 180,031 (83.2 per cent) Renamo: 15,310 (7.1 per cent) MDM: 10,378 (4.8 per cent)

In Sofala, as in Maputo city, only three polling stations are not yet included in the STAE provisional count. As more results came in from rural Sofala, Renamo made something of a recovery, and is only 1,500 votes behind the MDM. But the main story here is that Frelimo has, for the first time in Mozambican multi-party elections, won in this province, formerly regarded as a Renamo fortress. It can be confidently predicted that Frelimo will win 11 of the 20 Sofala seats, the MDM five and Renamo four. The results from 959 of the 962 polling stations are:

Presidential election

Daviz Simango (MDM): 82,270 (25.7 per cent) Armando Guebuza (Frelimo): 166,302 (51.9 per cent) Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo): 71,987 (22.5 per cent)

Parliamentary election

Frelimo: 162,922 (51.2 per cent) Renamo: 72,753 (22.8 per cent) MDM: 74,257 (23.3 per cent)

From the neighbouring province of Manica, STAE has now processed 626 of the 847 seats (73.9) per cent. In 2004, Manica split evenly, with Frelimo and Renamo each winning seven seats. Thanks to demographic changes, it now has 16 seats, and they are likely to divide 12 for Frelimo and four for Renamo. The results are:

Presidential election

Daviz Simango (MDM): 15,427 (7.8 per cent) Armando Guebuza (Frelimo): 139,617 (70.9 per cent) Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo): 41,912 (21.3 per cent)

Parliamentary election

Frelimo: 130,680 (72,9 per cent) Renamo: 40,280 (22.5 per cent)

Frelimo has also for the first time won in Zambezia. A projection from the current results would give Frelimo 29 of the 45 Zambezia seats and 16 to Renamo. This could, however change, since STAE has only processed 1,225 of the 2,064 polling stations (59.6 per cent). They gave the following results:

Presidential election

Daviz Simango (MDM): 24,020 (7.6 per cent) Armando Guebuza (Frelimo): 190,091 (60.4 per cent) Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo): 100,946 (32 per cent)

Parliamentary election (only 1,140 polling stations)

Frelimo: 172,908 (61 per cent) Renamo: 97,845 (34 per cent)

Nampula, the largest of the provincial constituencies, also sends 45 deputies to parliament, and again STAE has only processed about half of the polling stations. On the basis of these results, Frelimo will win 32 sears and Renamo 13. But these figures might change in either direction as the results from the other half of the Nampula stations become available. The results from 1,093 of the 2,156 stations (50.7 per cent) are:

Presidential election

Daviz Simango (MDM): 18,411(5.7 per cent) Armando Guebuza (Frelimo): 221,148 (68.1 per cent) Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo): 85,367 (26.3 per cent)

Parliamentary election

Frelimo: 195,716 (67.1 per cent) Renamo: 78,188(26.8 per cent)

In the western province of Tete, Renamo looks like taking only two of the 20 seats to 18 for Frelimo. The results, from 840 of the 1,207 polling stations (69.6 per cent), are:

Presidential election

Daviz Simango (MDM): 15,485 (5 per cent) Armando Guebuza (Frelimo): 267,805 (86.6 per cent) Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo): 26,095(8.4 per cent)

Parliamentary election

Frelimo: 300,967 (88 per cent) Renamo: 34,395 (10 per cent)

In the northern province of Cabo Delgado, with results from almost 60 per cent of the polling stations available, it is likely that Frelimo will win 18 of the 22 seats allocated to this province, and Renamo four. Earlier in the count, the PDD (Party for Peace, Democracy and Development) seemed to be doing surprisingly well, with over eight per cent of the vote. That has now fallen to 1.1 per cent. So either the stations first included contained, for some unknown reason, an abnormally high percentage of PDD votes or (perhaps more likely) STAE had made a mathematical mistake, which it has now corrected. The figures, from 676 of the 1,138 polling stations (59.4 per cent), are:

Presidential election

Daviz Simango (MDM): 11,974 (6.1 per cent) Armando Guebuza (Frelimo): 153,746 (78.8 per cent) Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo): 29,373 (15.1 per cent)

Parliamentary election

Frelimo: 147,355 (78 per cent) Renamo: 31,129 (16.5 per cent)

Finally, from Niassa province in the far north, it looks certain that Maria Moreno, former leader of the Renamo parliamentary group, and now head of the MDM list in the province, has failed to win a seat. The 14 seats in the province are likely to divide into 12 for Frelimo and two for Renamo. The figures from 501 of the 832 polling stations (60.3 per cent) are:

Presidential election

Daviz Simango (MDM): 6,395 (5 per cent) Armando Guebuza (Frelimo): 103,021 (81.2 per cent) Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo): 17,422(13.7 per cent)

Parliamentary election

Frelimo: 91,239 (79.9 per cent) Renamo: 16,935 (14.8 per cent) MDM: 4,039 (3.5 per cent).

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