Business Daily (Nairobi)

Africa: It is Crunch Time Ahead of Copenhagen Climate Talks

opinion

Only five negotiating days are left to prepare for the much-anticipated Copenhagen climate conference in December.

And these five days take place this week in Barcelona, the Spanish city famed for its exciting culture and food.

There will be little time for sightseeing or feasting this time around, for Barcelona represents perhaps the last chance for the countries to go for a deal.

"Seal the deal" is the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's famous slogan. The message is that if there is no deal in Copenhagen, the world is doomed to a future of global warming that leads to rising seas, glacial melting, floods and agricultural productivity losses. Despite all the attention given to this crisis in the last couple of years, it appears that a "deal" is far from being on the table. The following are some of the knots to be resolved.

First, the developed countries have to commit to deep emissions cuts, at least by 25 - 40 per cent by 2020 compared to 1990.

But this is just not happening; the individual offers add up to only 11-18 per cent, if the United States is included.

And it is at this moment that almost all the developed countries made clear they intend to dump the Kyoto Protocol (which has international, legally binding emissions reduction targets) for a new agreement that seems to merely involve national pledges and a peer review process.

The developing countries have cried foul, and are expected to insist that unless the rich countries recommit themselves to bind their emissions-reduction targets for the period 2013-2020 at an ambitious level and within Kyoto, there can be no deal in Copenhagen.

Second, the developing countries have agreed they would also take mitigating action, but they would not bind these within an international treaty because they were not responsible for the climate crisis.

Their emissions levels are still low, and they are still at an early development stage.

Moreover, the developing countries agree that their mitigating action would for the first time be monitored, reported on and verified (known as MRV).

But it was also agreed that these actions would be enabled and supported by transfers of finance and technology, which would also be subjected to MRV procedures.

Third, the developed countries are pushing for a "global goal" to cut global emissions by 50 per cent by 2050 (compared to 1990) and fourth is the finance issue.

Developing countries are fighting for a new climate fund to be set up inside the UN climate convention, with equitable representation by all regions.

There is already a plan to have a "Political Declaration" instead, which may presumably lay down the principles and some decisions, and direct the negotiators to continue the climate talks next year.


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