Johannesburg — THE latest vehicle export sales have at long last provided a glimmer of hope to SA's battered vehicle manufacturers.

The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of SA (Naamsa) reported yesterday that export sales surged 49,9% month on month last month.

This spike came as something of a surprise.

Barely a month ago, Naamsa expected no significant improvement in vehicle export sales in the short to medium term, saying the recovery hinged on global economic conditions and world financial markets.

It is not clear what contributed to the sudden change in fortunes for exports.

Nor is it certain whether export sales have started recovering after collapsing from last year due to the global recession.

Naamsa says the better performance suggests that a recovery in demand in a number of export markets is under way, probably on the stimulus packages and fiscal support measures in several countries, including the US.

The motor components sector is another in distress due to the economic recession.

While acknowledging an improvement in exports, Roger Pitot, executive director at the National Association of Automotive Component and Allied Manufacturers, warns that it remains to be seen whether this is sustained, as it is not clear whether real economic recovery has taken hold in western economies.

Pitot says that several association members also recently experienced an increase in component exports.

DOES SA have any competitive advantage in manufacturing vehicles? While the spike in vehicle exports is encouraging, Naamsa president Dave Powels, speaking before the release of yesterday's car sales figures, told Engineering News that the industry was not only in an unhealthy state because of declining sales, it was in fact in imminent danger of collapse.

Among the critical problems, the most significant is obviously the global recession.

This has apparently opened up massive spare capacity globally, which Powels says amounts to about 36-million vehicles a year, or about a third of global consumption.

But this overall problem is exposing some more specifically South African problems.

Powels says making cars in SA is an incredible 20% more expensive than in western Europe and 32% more expensive than in China. The global decision makers are now putting pressure on South African producers, wondering why they are exporting vehicles from SA when capacity is available in other, more competitive manufacturing locations such as China and Russia.

If these figures are correct, you sense a big decision looming.

CALLS for nationalisation are like a virus, they spread quickly and intensify fast. The National Union of Metalworkers of SA's demand for nationalisation of the wealth of Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale among others is the natural consequence of the call by the ANC Youth League for nationalisation of the mines.

Having allowed this genie out of the bottle, ANC leaders now have a terrible fight on their hands getting it back in. It will test the leadership of the ANC and President Jacob Zuma , and is unlikely to end without some concessions, for which mine groups probably need to brace themselves.

But the first step would be for ANC leaders, starting with Zuma, to stop whispering ANC opposition to nationalisation and start saying it clearly.

The ANC has been happy to indulge the debate, but unless it is willing to stand up it will find itself backed into a corner.

It is not without arguments in its favour, and it should know that the South African population as a whole is not so dumb that it cannot recognise the veracity of these arguments.

The SACP and unions think they are gaining traction sprouting nationalisation, but actually they are just isolating themselves, locally and internationally.

The Bottom Line is edited by Colin Anthony.