Aubrey Matshiqi
6 November 2009
opinion
Johannesburg — A YEAR ago, Sandton came to a standstill as multitudes gathered to celebrate the dawn of a new political era. Leaders of opposition parties joined many others to celebrate a new spirit of opposition in the hope that the political nemesis of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) would be born out of it.
I am, of course, talking about the National Convention, the precursor to the launch of the Congress of the People (COPE). Democratic Alliance (DA) leader, Helen Zille, received the kind of hero's welcome I last saw when Madiba was released from 27 years of incarceration in 1990. Former ANC stalwarts such as Mbhazima Shilowa and Mosiuoa Lekota danced next to her in a display of new-found love for the opposition and opposition politics.
When I read what I had written in this column the day before the convention, I am not sure whether I should feel embarrassed or vindicated. Clearly, I was in no mood for celebration if the vitriol in my writing is anything to go by. Maybe I was simply foregrounding what was to follow. You see, at the time it seemed Lekota et al were five months away from giving the ANC a kick in its complacent bum.
Well, those were the days, my friend. Today, COPE looks more like the Titanic -- with an iceberg waiting ahead -- than a credible alternative to the ANC. The party is now reduced to holding joint press conferences with the DA as the only way of giving the appearance of effective opposition to the ANC and its bullish left flank.
What went wrong? It seems the split from the ruling party by Lekota, Shilowa and others was not as qualitatively significant as they had hoped. The split failed to attract quality ANC leaders in the numbers that would have transferred political, organising and policy-design skills to the new opposition venture in a way that would pose a serious threat to the ANC.
We must remember that, at the time, there was serious concern among many in the mainstream media, the chattering class and the middle class about the impact the outcome of the 2007 Polokwane conference of the ANC, and the decision by the ruling party to recall former president Thabo Mbeki , would have on institutional certainty and stability.
Further , the leaders of the split had raised important issues such as the possible corrosion of the rule of law, threats to the constitution and electoral system reform.
Subjectively, the quality of the split militated against effective use of these issues as a mobilising tool. Objectively, it was always going to be difficult for COPE to perform credibly in the general election in the short period between its launch in December and the holding of elections in April.
I suppose this is why the party thought divine intervention would assist them in their battle against the ANC. However, the appointment of a priest, Mvume Dandala, as the moral other of Jacob Zuma , and the party's presidential candidate, proved to be a monumental disaster.
Also, it seems the suspicions of those who were not as charitable as I am, may have been correct.
Some of these sceptics argued that because "lies have short legs" COPE was not the answer to the hunger for effective opposition, since people would see the party for what it is -- a party formed by people who had lost power and influence in Polokwane and had therefore created a vehicle through which they sought to reaccess centres of state power.
In my view, ANC supporters had to decide between those who were elected to the leadership of the ANC in 2007, and those who split from the ruling party in September last year, as representing a betrayal of SA's liberation struggle heritage. It seems they decided the split was the betrayal. Time will tell whether, objectively, they were correct.
As matters stand, it seems the future of COPE is in the hands of Lekota and Shilowa. The tension between the two leaders and the factionalism it has spawned will kill the party if they do not sit down and are honest about which of them represents a brighter future for the party.
Matshiqi is a senior research associate at the Centre for Policy Studies.
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