Tony Okerafor
8 November 2009
As a controversial parliamentary election was going on in Niger Republic, Tuesday, October 20, an exasperated director of political affairs for the West Africa regional grouping, ECOWAS, was making an important announcement before reporters at the grouping's headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria.
"As you can see", Mr. Abdul Fatao Moussa told his audience, "the elections are ongoing right now, which means, clearly, the authorities in Niger have rejected the decision of the ECOWAS heads of state and government. The chairman of ECOWAS ... President Musa Yar' Adua of Nigeria, is now going to formalize the suspension of Niger from ECOWAS. But, from the communiqué, it is obvious that Niger finds itself already under sanctions."
The "rejection" Mr. Fatao Moussa has referred to is connected to a demand handed down to the President of Niger, Mamadou Tandja, by ECOWAS leaders that he put the vote for parliament on hold, until some fundamental issues, "issues bordering on the restoration of democracy in Niger", were resolved. The African Union, (A.U), the European Union, (E.U.) and the United Nations, U.N., had, at various times, also waded into the crisis with the aim of staying President Tandja's hand. But, those protestations fell on deaf ears.
The new-look parliament elected on Tuesday is 113-seat-strong. However, it's a body whose legitimacy is questioned, and will enjoy very little international recognition if at all, because President Tandja intends it to replace the one he dissolved last May. First voted into office ten years ago, Mr. Tandja, a former army colonel, triggered a big uproar inside his country, and alienated many in the outside world, when he acquired and unconstitutional third term by simply disbanding the courts and removing the term limit embedded in the constitution. In an attempt to encourage people to vote, the government declared election-day an official holiday.
Ahead of the polls, observers wondered whether enough people will come out to vote, as the authorities were calling for then to do, or whether many would prefer to stay back at home, as the opposition were urging them to do. The argument of the opposition has always been that the elections are simply about giving President Tandja the appearance of legitimated government. As for the supporters of the president, he needs to stay in office to finish projects that have begun to change Niger for the better.
The battle of wills between the president and the opposition actually broke out about six months ago, when he announced that he wanted to rule by decree. He called for a referendum in August, which the opposition also boycotted. But, an inevitable "yes' victory meant that the president could bring in his new constitution, which allows him to rule Niger for another three years, beyond the December 2009, when his second presidential tenure ought to expire. The new constitution also permits him to stand for another term of office, when the next presidential elections come up in 2012.
Niger's fragmented opposition had fought their man from the start-"trying hard" to thwart his plans for a new constitution. At the same time, the elections have managed to uncover the weakness and the difficulty Niger's political opposition are facing, especially over how to handle a formidable, wily politician like Mr. Tandja. In the first place, they have called a boycott of two key projects of the president's: including August's referendum and Tuesday's parliamentary elections. Both calls failed, apparently, and more so in the case of the latter, because many of the candidates from within the opposition grouping simply ignore the boycott calls and took part in the contest for parliament.
As for ECOWAS, it has dawned on the leadership of the regional grouping that some form of concerted action has to be taken to prevent the crisis in the former French colony spiraling out of control. The Nigerian government, especially, has become increasingly concerned, given that Niger borders the country to the north. History has shown that problems in Niger have often spilled across both countries' porously guarded frontier.
So, the strategy that President Yar'Adua seems to favour, in his capacity as ECOWAS chairman, is to use both the carrot and the stick in bringing about a resolution of the problem in his country's crisis-ridden northern neighbour. Several times, Yar'Adua government has attempted to spearhead talks between the government of Niger and the political opposition. But, he has met with failure, principally, because Mr. Tandja has so far refused to shift his position on any of the key issues.
The understanding seems to be, this time around, that negotiations will work, if backed by sanctions. That probably explains why ECOWAS has set the ball rolling, so to speak, by suspending Niger from its ranks. Mr. Tandja can be made to climb down from the high tree he's flown onto, if a degree of those sanctions is economic. A travel ban on members of his government, plus an asset freeze may also help to cow the president and his supporters.
But, the efforts must be concerted, if they are to bear fruit. On their own, neither ECOWAS nor the A.U. can make much happen, without wholehearted commitment from both the E.U. and the U.N. They are the ones with the real political and economic muscle.
Also, Niger's military has to be brought into the equation, because, to a large extent, the military leadership hold the key to a solution. If every kind of military aid to Niger was cut off, the backers of the 72-year-old president in the armed forces would begin to think twice.
The opposition themselves need to close ranks by acting as one. But, most importantly, it would seed that the best option on the table should be to encourage both sides to settle for a government of national unity, ahead of elections that are fair, credible and transparent. Before that, political reform must happen.
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