Once upon a time, a military coup took place in the East African nation of Uganda, during the reign of returnee president, Milton Oboteh. That was in the early 1980's. General Tito Orkelo had overthrown Mr. Oboteh in that coup d'etat.

No sooner had Mr. Oboteh been removed than a mysterious woman appeared from the bushes of northern Uganda to proclaim herself as the leader of a religious movement, whose members were not only said to be immune to bullets, but, premised their movement on adherence to the Biblical Ten Commandments. The woman, Alice Moquenna, was subsequently defeated and captured, while most of her armed supporters were overthrown or killed.

Some say the Lord's Resistance Army (L.R.A.) movement that we know today rose from the ruins of Ms. Moquenna sect. The Lord's Resistance Army also has its roots in northern Uganda. Its leader, a so-called General Joseph Kony, wanted Uganda to be governed by the Ten Commandments, and maybe, still does. That's at least the official line he's managed to put out all these years, as his movement grew in strength and numbers, largely due to logistical and other support it was receiving from the Khartoum government which wanted to retaliate against the government of Uganda for supporting southern Sudanese rebels, the S.P.L.A., fighting for the independence of mainly black African South Sudan.

Uganda's current president, Yowere Museveni, overthrow General Orkelo in 1986, thereby inheriting the problem of Kony and his L.R.A. as his major headache.

For twenty-three years, northern Uganda raved and burned and cried, until the L.R.A.'s decline. A combination of Uganda army successes on the battlefield, war fatigue and the halt to aid from the government of Sudan meant that the L.R.A. could not continue the war on the same scale it had done for a good part of two decades. On top of that, the safe haven Konyi and his men enjoyed inside southern Sudan was lost, due to the fact that the S.P.L.A.-S.P.L.M had been allowed to set up an autonomous government in territories under its control since 2005, and decided, as a result, to side with their longstanding allies: i.e. Mr. Museveni's government.

The question many people are asking now is: what has become of the comprehensive peace deal notched up, under international auspices just last, between the L.R.A. and the government of Uganda. That peace agreement, which was negotiated in Juba, South Sudan, aimed at ending the war for good. Kony hasn't yet come out of the bush to sign up to the document that was negotiated by some of his closest lieutenants. He's still at large. His forces have been seriously depleted; many of his top commanders have either been killed and captured or simply taken advantage of the amnesty that the government has declared since before the reaching of the Juba accord.

Most of all, L.R.A. forces are hardly present in their primary constituency, which is northern Uganda. They have been routed out. So, what strategy, if any, is driving Kony and his remaining bands?

The fact is: Uganda's rebel war is now a trans-national conflict, and had been so before now, because just over a year ago, Kony's bands, after being booted out of Sudan, flocked into neighbouring Congo D.R. and began attacking civilians as well as Congolese and United Nations peace-keepers.

Nowadays, the conflict has become a fast-expanding one. L.R.A. fighters have also entered into the Central African Republic, C.A.R. While humanitarian groups call attention to the plight of civilians in the C.A.R., who are now being terrorized by the L.R.A., analysts can't seem to understand what Kony seeks to achieve;

The L.R.A. leader is an international fugitive. That much has been the case since 2007, when the Hague-based International Criminal Court, I.C.C., indicted him for war crimes and crimes against humanity and issued warrants for his arrest. But, what the rebel movement is best known for is the tactics of abducting children, in order to replenish the ranks of the movement. There is also much wonder and puzzlement over the movement's leader's claims to being a prophet of God.

Intensified attacks inside the D.R.C. by the L.R.A. began in 2008. Apart from adding the C.A.R. to its attack-list, raids into the Western Equatorial Region of South Sudan is also commonplace. A spokesman for the U.N.H.C.R. estimates that over 400,000 people have been displaced in the region by the L.R.A., during the past twelve months. The brutal attacks are usually carried out by small bands of L.R.A. guerrillas, who loot the towns and leave little in their wake.

According to U.N. officials, the attacks against the civilian population have been increasing and pouring over into surrounding areas. A U.N.H.C.R. official based in South Sudan recently spoke of the refugee agency receiving a steady flow of refugees from the Central African Republic. That, he explained, has added to the large number or refugees from the Democratic Republic of Congo, who were displaced by the Ugandan rebel group.

One of the refugee agencies based in the Western Equatorial Region had to be re-located, sometime last month, following an attack on the town by a group of L.R.A. fighters, during a food distribution exercise. As a result, all U.N. personnel were barred from entering the besieged town.

According to local authorities in South Sudan, 186 people have been killed by the L.R.A. and 133 kidnapped, since the beginning of this year. Most of the abductees are young girls. The U.N. says the violence has displaced over 165,000 people in South Sudan alone.

Definitely, Joseph Kony's guerrillas are behaving erratically, and one effect that is now beginning to have on the situation is a rapid expansion of the number of outside players in the conflict. His followers are now targets of Uganda, South Sudanese, C.A.R. and U.N.-backed Congolese forces, leading many people to question what goals these expanded attacks could possibly be designed to reach.

Dr. David Matsanga is from eastern Uganda. He was a key member of the L.R.A. and had actually headed the movement's negotiating team during the Juba negotiations, until exasperation and presidential ambitions forced him to resign the post. Journalists wanted to know from him why, or what it was and whether his former boss was in agreement with the negotiation. Replying he said: "If he's fighting, he's fighting for something that I don't understand for."

Yes! The indictment of the I.C.C. That arrest warrant issued by the court's chief prosecutor is believed to have played the most part in preventing Kony showing up in Juba to sign the peace agreement, despite repeated promises to do so. He inisits the I.C.C. would have to drop the warrant, if he's to come out of hiding.

Some have also speculated that Kony hopes to use this renewed rampage across the region to raise international pressure for re-newed negotiations. That, analysts say, is unlikely. Most of the groups, individuals, countries, a s well as certain interest groups inside northern Uganda, that used to support Kony and his movement have now abandoned them-meaning that the L.R.A. leader can no longer negotiate from a position of strength, nor will the I.C.C. revoke or defer the warrant it issued against him.