Ayenew Haileselassie
6 November 2009
column
Addis Abeba — First there was the historic debate in which the chalk-handlers, the engineers and the bureaucrats outshone their erstwhile Kalashnikov-totting rebels or freedom fighters, which ever way you like it to have.
Then there was Ethiopia's first democratic victory that awarded the nation's capital to the opposition. Then the haze clears, reality sets in, and the Kalashnikov guys remain in power, the intellectuals go to the "University of Hard Knocks" and every body was like, "I had a dream in which ...." But the reality many people woke up to would not be the same as the one they knew before they slept. Most of the products of the free press that fuelled the election fervour were not there anymore. The opposition was either in disarray or in prison. And the dreaming public somehow did not want to go back to bed to have the same dream.
There have been reports that although the ruling party somehow managed to retain its power in all federal and regional governments, it had been shocked by the outcome of the last election. Some people say that the EPRDF actually expected to win that election democratically and that it was taken by surprise by the voters' contrary expectation. I find that hard to accept, because the EPRDF cannot really be dumb enough or blind enough to believe that the majority of Ethiopians loved it enough to vote it into office without any pressure.
It seems however that the party is still intrigued by its inability to attract massive popular support. While it keeps trying to earn the love of the people, nevertheless, it is also not leaving things to blind chance. Its membership has boomed recently because EPRDF membership has legitimately or otherwise been linked to first jobs and promotions in existing posts.
The widely circulated pictures of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi shaking hands with Engineer Hailu Shawel and other opposition leaders might have marked the end of another EPRDF ploy to trip the opposition and convince the public that the democratic tradition is moving forward sure-footedly.
The ruling party is fortunate enough to be assisted by the ineptness of the opposition parties in this country. What we have here are pseudo-politicians who do not read history, who do not listen to the news and hardly learn from their mistakes. As much as many people want to see the end of the EPRDF's tenure of power, they must also want to oust the existing opposition leaders who have held the leadership seats since the beginning.
First the ruling party started talking about Prime Minister Meles going out office, taking with him many from his generation of leaders. That is meant to indicate a major change in the party, something like new blood, new thinking. That has an element of truth, if and when it happens. Then the EPRDF's master planners came to the opposition parties asking for negotiation on election code of conduct.
There is no reason why the ruling party should not initiate such a negotiation, but it would have sounded a little bit more acceptable if the opposition had asked for it. This looked like the perfect trap. Should they say no, they would end up looking like the irrational politicians whose uncooperativeness would have been blamed for any election related problems. [In fact it looks like they have hardly thought of this option.] The EPRDF's offer was accepted almost enthusiastically. They all went with their own lists of problems they wished to negotiate with the EPRDF. Then foolishness occurred, which was probable one of the worst blunders made lately. The Forum for Justice and Democracy, a coalition of six opposition parties, including Beyene Petros's and Merera Gudina's as well as two famous names, Seye Abreha, a rebel who became defence minister until he broke with the ruling party and then went to jail, and Dr Negasso Gidada, who had held a number of positions in EPRDF government, including the presidency of the country. The Forum had accepted the invitation to negotiate, but then it retraced its steps and crept back to its hole.
The major problem they raised (publicly) was that they did not want the other opposition parties to be represented in the same negotiation. They wanted it just them and the EPRDF.
"The other opposition parties have not come up with the same problems which we have raised," Gebru Asrat, leader of Arena Tigray and former president of the Tigray Regional state said. "So if our problems are not theirs, then they should not be there when we negotiate those points." Some how this is a serious issue for them. "It is a matter of principle," said Beyene Petros.
But no member of the Forum has been able to give a convincing reason why they should not be in the negotiation, or how they came to take a position that the code of conduct for the election should be separately negotiated, when there could only be one code for everyone.
If they had said, "We do not believe that the ruling party means good by asking us to negotiate this issue. It is only trying to gain advance legitimacy points for the election it is determined to win by all means, and we are not willing to help it do that," they would more likely have been able to garner a lot of support in their favour. They simply continued acting like it was their first day in politics.
Meanwhile the negotiation, which eventually took two months, was going on. The negotiating opposition parties poked fun at the Forum league, while the happily told some journalists that there was nothing that the negotiation failed to cover. They claimed that the Code they had developed was one that would be fit to address any problems that would emerge during the 2010 election.
That was probably not as bad as they would be doing on their very last day. We have read in the papers of the courage of Hailu Shawel who is said to have told the EPRDF guys that unless Prime Minister Meles himself came to sign the agreement, he himself would not be either. But that was how the engineer was aiming the gun at himself. It would be blunder after blunder for him and his friends. First there was Hailu's beaming smile when he greeted the Prime Minister as he came to the Lalibela Hall at the Sheraton, where they put their signatures on the agreement. Incidentally, Hailu had to wait outside the room for Meles to come, as the organizers, who were from EPRDF, said that it would be inappropriate for the opposition leaders to take their seats before the Prime Minister had arrived. The PM arrived, and there were beaming smiles and well-extended arms grabbing each other in greetings as if they belonged to friends, which, actually, was what Hailu hinted later, speaking publicly to his regret.
Hailu said that the period of negotiation had created the opportunity for them to know and understand each other so much so that "we have started to look at each other with friendliness." Now who would have said that in politics, but some one who either jumped into politics by mistake or who has become a turncoat. It looks now Lidetu Ayalew will only be one of a list of opposition leaders that are suspected of supporting the ruling party, as some in the public feel.
The internet made it possible for the news to get to the world instantly, and the same night the internet was full of angry comments against the Engineer.
As if to correct that mistake, the Reuters published a story in which it claimed it received from the All Ethiopia Unity Party (AEUP), which Hailu leads, a list of hundreds of politicians that have been arrested in the country. That hardly seems a remedy potent enough to correct the blunder that has been made.
They may just listen to the news and learn how the democrats and republicans in America publicly behave. May be they ought not to go the American extreme, but they ought to learn that an opponent is out there only to see the downfall of the parties it opposes. Yes the code of conduct deserved to be negotiated. It would benefit all, if applied, but they should have known how to better go through the process. If they don't watch themselves, the opposition will be making more blunders as the election approaches, costing them enough votes to probably lose even democratically.
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