Nasiru Idris Medugu
9 November 2009
opinion
The Global GHG emissions are on an accelerating trend and if left unchecked could lead to a 6.4 degree C (11.5 degree F) temperature increase by the end of the century, exceeding conservative estimates according to Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, Chair IPCC and with an average warming of over 2.5°C, the world would see some very serious changes.
Even though climate change cannot be blamed for any particular storm or disaster, rising sea level is putting more people at risk. The fact is, if you're living in low lying coastal states for example, Nigerian Niger-delta that can be a very serious issue.
The UN IPCC report in 2007 predicts average global temperature rises of 1.1 - 6.4 degrees C by 2100.
The scientific body also underscores that climate change is not a smooth, linear progression but rather a disruption in the climate system, manifesting itself through more floods, droughts and heat waves, whose severity will only increase. And that scenario according to Pachauri could create abrupt and irreversible changes, including the possible extinction of 20-30 per cent of all species and collapse of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, which could create sea-level rise of several metres.
All the technologies and methods required to stringently mitigate missions are available; what is needed is a policy framework that would bring about a movement to low-carbon technology development. Placing a price on carbon would send a direct signal to markets and consumers of a desire to move in that direction.
In line with that, by December 2009, various national governments and relevant stakeholders around the globe will meet for the crucial UN climate convention at Copenhagen in order to seal the deal on a comprehensive new agreement that puts the global economy onto a low- carbon path.
That package must also include serious and sustained funding to assist vulnerable economies adapts and climate proof their societies in order to cope with the impacts already underway. It is important to recall that the catalyst for the upcoming convention, and for the existing action on climate change under the Kyoto Protocol of the UN framework convention, is science.
The 4th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), co-hosted by UNEP and the WMO, is the consensus-led, painstaking scientific process that is bringing more than 190 countries to the table. The big question now is we do not know what the outcome of Copenhagen convention will be. But we do know that the IPCC's findings and forecasts could not have been possible without data and observing systems, in turn translated into modelling, information and options upon which governments can act.
Monitoring and observing the climate should and must continue. Copenhagen is not the end of a response, more part of the beginning. According to the UN report, response should include: 1) Managing and bolstering the planet's multi trillion dollar ecosystem services such as forests and wetlands. 2) Better understanding and taking action on how hydrological cycles are changing in a climate-constrained world. 3) Adopting policies to protect public health and biodiversity amidst a changing climate and its challenges.
There is meanwhile growing scientific interest in the health, agricultural, ecosystem and climate impacts of so called non-CO2 pollutants such as so-called "black carbon" particles. The need to urgently deploy observing skills, technologies and science to understand all emissions and impacts and marshal all available options for delivering a stable, prosperous and healthy world is very crucial for sustainable living.
Above all, gathering data and translating it into useful and actionable information will be among the keys to overcoming vulnerabilities on a planet of six billion, rising to over nine billion by 2050. The operative word here is perhaps service; service to governments and to cities and to companies and to citizens so they can understand better, plan and optimize the use of scarce resources both natural and financial in a rapidly changing 21st century world Faster action on climate change may be possible if nations combine substantial cuts of carbon dioxide emissions alongside accelerated moves across a suite of other greenhouse gases and pollutants.
However, the time has come for further urgent scientific assessments to determine the precise contribution, impacts and the options for action on non-CO2 pollutants. There remains some scientific uncertainty about some of these pollutants' precise contribution to global warming. But a growing body of science points to a potentially significant role.
The international community's over-arching concern must be to seal a convincing deal at the UN climate convention meeting in Copenhagen in December one that puts the world on track towards swift and significant cuts in carbon dioxide while also providing the funding to assist vulnerable countries and communities to adapt to disasters such as tropical cyclones which are becoming more intense, having more stronger peak wind speeds and heavier precipitation as experienced recently in Philippine and Indonesia. It is clear that the world must deploy all available means to combat climate change. At this critical juncture, every transformative measure and every substance contributing to climate change should not be overlooked.
A trust gap has opened between industrial and developing countries, stalling essential common action. It is rooted in a failure to fully acknowledge the polluter pays principle in climate negotiations and political dialogue. It results both from decades of unfulfilled commitments in development and trade and from fears that developing countries with rapidly increasing emissions are not doing enough to curb them. The trust gap can be bridged when commitments by industrial countries are met. Developing nations, for their part, need to ensure transparent management of funds and the empowerment of their communities.
The causes and effects of climate change lay thousands of miles and centuries apart. Science has spoken but it now needs the political will to act. In particular, strong and capable leadership is needed to overcome the current trust impasse and help us all live up to our responsibilities to current and future generations (sustainable development). This leadership will require an acknowledgement of urgency, a willingness to accept scientific truth, a long-term perspective, and collective actions.
Nasiru Idris Medugu is a PhD Researcher, Faculty of Built Environment, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia,
Be the first to Write a Comment!
Copyright © 2009 Daily Trust. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com). To contact the copyright holder directly for corrections — or for permission to republish or make other authorized use of this material, click here.
AllAfrica aggregates and indexes content from over 125 African news organizations, plus more than 200 other sources, who are responsible for their own reporting and views. Articles and commentaries that identify allAfrica.com as the publisher are produced or commissioned by AllAfrica.
