Daniel Kalinaki
12 November 2009
opinion
One of the questions I am frequently asked by foreigners watching Uganda is; can the country descend into the kind of ethnic-tinged violence that followed the disputed Kenyan elections in 2007?
To meaningfully answer that question, one needs to look across the border, identify what conditions created or fuelled the Kenyan violence, and see whether similar conditions exist in Uganda.
There are several causes and catalysts behind the Kenyan violence but four are worth noting. First, there were long-standing ethnic grievances in which members of one tribe were perceived by others to enjoy a disproportionate share of state power and the attendant resources.
The colonial and post-colonial dislocations, in which people were settled into areas in which they did not originate, and in which they became tribal minorities, compounded this situation.
Secondly, the Kenyan political culture had, over many years, become tribal with people voting for their own in order to maintain the status quo or move closer to the high table.
Thirdly, politicians were not only willing to stoke tribal sentiments to mobilise support, they were also willing to sponsor and encourage violence as a political tool.
Finally, there came the discredited election which served as a spark to the bonfire that reduced East Africa's biggest economy into a smouldering cauldron of chaos whose effects still linger.
Now, let's look at Uganda.
The Land Question, which was set in colonial times, remains unresolved despite concerted efforts by subsequent governments. While the latest attempt, in the form of amendments to the Land Act, contains a few progressive clauses, it also has radical clauses that many will find unacceptable, especially as it will be rammed through with or without consensus.
Add to this the internal mass settlements of 'Bafuruki' or immigrants, in Bunyoro, the 'Balaalo' in Buganda and other parts of the country, etc., and you find a situation not too dissimilar to Kenya's.
With these land tensions rising, tribe has become a rallying point across the country. The NRM government, keen to win support, has encouraged and sponsored the sprouting of all manner of 'traditional leaders' and, in many areas, created new districts (political entities) to satisfy tribal (disguised as cultural) demands. It appears now that any tribe of note has to have a king and an association of his subjects to articulate the kingdom's political demands.
Politicians, never the type to turn down a free ride, have jumped onto the tribal bandwagon, joining tribal demonstrations, prostrating before kings and princes, and, in a recent case, even helping 'crown' kings.
Some politicians, rightly or wrongly, have been accused of inciting violence as a means of articulating political demands (including tribal ones) while others have reminded us that violence is a legitimate tool that can be exercised in defence of the Constitution.
With tribe the flavour of the times, the practice of counting how many ministers, army generals and other top government officials are from which tribes has become popular all over again.
It is with this kind of fractured society that we are hurtling down to 2011, to an election whose organisers have already been discredited and in which few are likely to have confidence in the result, regardless of its veracity. It is also an election in which any dispute is unlikely to be taken to the courts, thanks to the "substantive effect" ruling by the Supreme Court, which makes it all but impossible to overturn a stolen ballot.
So, can a Kenya happen in Uganda? Yes, but the question that concerns me most is why it is foreigners who keep asking, not Ugandans. That is one question to which I have no answer.
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