Business Day (Johannesburg)

Africa: Continent's Growth to Halve But Reforms Shield It From Recession

Johannesburg — AFRICA has been shielded from the worst effects of the global recession, yet its growth rate this year is projected to be 2,8%, down from 5,7% last year.

The deputy general secretary of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Mario Amano, said yesterday that the recession's effect on Africa was mainly through decreased oil exploration and export earnings.

He ascribed the reduced effect of the global downturn to recent economic reforms, especially fiscal consolidation.

"The financial position is much better and inflation has been reduced," he said at the annual ministerial meeting arranged by the OECD, the New Partnership for Africa's Development (Nepad) and the Department of Trade and Industry.

But Amano, who underlined the growing influence of emerging economies including SA, said Africa had to resist the temptation towards protectionism.

The CEO of the Nepad secretariat, Ibrahim Mayaki, said a strong agricultural sector, along with viable investments in infrastructure, were key to laying the groundwork for long-term sustainability.

"If we build the right capacities to implement in these two sectors, in the long-term perspective we will be able to cope with the consequences of the crisis in a better way," Mayaki said.

However, he said the full effect of the economic crisis on Africa was not known. "We do not yet have a comprehensive picture of the consequences of the crisis at the level of the continent; we have a diagnosis but that diagnosis is a partial one," Mayaki said.

Karim Dahou, executive manager of the Nepad-OECD Africa Investment Initiative, said strengthening supply capacities in Africa could be done most efficiently at regional level. "It's clear that infrastructure is the backbone of regional integration and it's a critical engine for growth, and the needs are huge."

According to World Bank estimates, Africa needs about 80bn and 15 years to catch up with Latin America and Asia.


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