FIGURES for September manufacturing and mining production - up 2,6% and 1,8% - show we're emerging from the recession, but SA is taking a lot longer to do so than its trading partners in Asia and Europe.

Led by China, Asia's emergence is by far the faster, but the euro zone came out of recession in the third quarter and output rose at its fastest rate for two years last month.

Irrespective of what it is, a Chinese pencil sharpener or a German luxury car, it can't be fabricated without the kinds of metals and minerals that we have in abundance. So why are we staggering so slowly out of recession that unemployment figures remain stubbornly high? The answer's simple -- because so far this year the rand has risen 28% against the dollar and 17% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies.

After remaining stubbornly against intervening in the currency market, the government is at last discussing the problem with organised business, companies and labour. My fingers, and I'm sure those of plenty of others, are tightly crossed that a pinch of common sense will prevail and the powers that be will be persuaded to relax their rigid nonintervention policy.

In the chart, I have combined the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) spot index, the JSE resources 20 index and the dollar-rand exchange rate. You'll see that the CRB and the resource index move together, but since April the CRB has moved faster than resources. To SA's detriment, in the depth of the recession, when our resources were not needed, the rand hit a low of 1/R11,8, putting resources at a clearance-sale bargain price.

Now, when resources are again needed, they can only be sold at an exorbitant 1/R7,3.

Supposing intervention does take place and the rand loses some strength, investors might consider altering their course. Companies that sell locally and rely on imported goods and components will be less attractive, but those that export will get a facelift.

Capevin (formerly KWV), which for the past nine years has increased its well-covered dividend, is nudging at a buy signal. Sappi has been struggling, but I'm expecting a gradual lift as it prospects brighten.

With new car sales lifting, more platinum is needed. Both Implats and Wesizwe are nudging at buy signals. There are two bullish signals on Imperial -- a director has bought shares and there is a technical buy indicator. Hudaco is predominantly an importer but is experiencing good volume along with its buy signal.

KG Media's up-flip and buy signal was accompanied by good volume. Almost up to its R14 count, KG Media has a speculative count to R17. Following encouraging results, Busconnex is hinting at a buy signal on good volume. Good results and prospects for Pergrin are likely to give the share price a lift, while PSG has given a strong buy signal.

Even More Charting for Profits, Temkin's third textbook on technical analysis, is now available. She has interests in Imperial and Hudaco.