Matt Brown
14 November 2009
Nate Silver, renowned for his dead-on forecasting of the 2008 US elections, released a new football ranking formula with broadcaster ESPN.
The rankings, which seek to predict the future performance of national sides, address a number of the FIFA rankings' perceived weaknesses.
Silver's new Soccer Power Index (SPI) incorporates results from club play. "If Samuel Eto'o scores a goal for Inter Milan, it will... help Cameroon's rating," he says. Also, the rankings incorporate a "competitiveness coefficient based on the actual lineups that each team used in each match." By handicapping matches like friendlies, the rankings account for sides that send weaker squads to minor games and better predict the performance of the squads countries will actually field in South Africa.
Brazil and Spain are ranked 1st and 2nd, but further down the league tables the SPI contradicts FIFA. For example, languishing England ranks 3rd, meaning Silver likes the side's chances in 2010.
FIFA suggests that Cameroon is Africa's 2010 contender, but the SPI drops the Indomitable Lions down in 16th. But Ivory Coast nearly doubles its FIFA ranking.
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