Abuja — "It will be judicial blunder to grant this application and the effect will be too disastrous to contemplate. The election was not conducted in accordance with the supreme law of the land. If granted, it will bury the rights of Anambra State people. It is not supported by point of law. The election of Uba was illegal. The application has no moral tone. It is hereby dismissed for want of Merit." - Justice Nwani Ngwuta

Some 48 hours ago, the Court of Appeal sitting in Enugu told Chief Andy Uba, the gubernatorial candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party in the 2007 poll in Anambra State, that the 'governor-in-waiting' status which he had consistently claimed was constitutionally and morally unreal.

In a unanimous decision in which all five justices threw out Uba's application, the court ruled that although it had jurisdiction to entertain the application, but after due consideration and looking at the arguments by the applicant and respondents, the court has no choice than to dismiss the application in its entirety as it lacks merit and has no moral basis and will be a judicial blunder of immense proportion to grant the reliefs being sought.

Delivering the lead judgment, Justice Nwani Ngwuta held that the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) held the 2007 gubernatorial election in Anambra State when there was no vacancy, maintaining that it was not conducted in accordance with the 1999 constitution which provides that an election must not be held not earlier than 60 days before the expiration of the office of the incumbent and not later than 30 days .

Justice Ngwuta held that although the court has jurisdiction over Uba's application, the 2007 April election that led to his emergence as governor was held while the incumbent governor of the state, Obi was in court, challenging his removal from office despite the fact the INEC was a party to the suit. He agreed with an earlier verdict of the Supreme Court that there no vacancy before the 2007 was held, maintaining that Obi's four-year tenure commenced from 17th March, 2006 -17th 17th March 2010.

With this final judicial pronouncement last week, many believe that Uba's journey to political Siberia has begun proper. Many saw his successive recourse to the courts to revalidate his governorship seat which he 'won' in 2007 as mere judicial rascality. Uba is widely perceived to be a creation of former President Olusegun Obasanjo. The retired general from Ogun State is believed to have scripted the Uba governorship saga to serve ends not altruistic or necessarily beneficial to Ndigbo (see Uba's profile).

Initial hypothesis explained Uba's governorship ambition as an option to ensure he got constitutional immunity, a scenario that should ensure he would untouchable for the next eight years. The thinking here is that if he should squeal on the former president, the cat would be let out of the former president's bag. The soft-spoken Uba had moved into the gubernatorial fray with a financial war-chest far worth more than a king's ransom. After eight eventful years with Obasanjo, many believe he garnered stupendous wealth. By Nigerian standards, this was not surprising. Many hurdles were thrown his way but with the presidential fiat by former President Obasanjo that he must become Anambra's next governor, all the opposition were steamrolled aside.

But Governor Peter Obi then played the last critical card that decided the outcome in most unforeseen way. He went to the Supreme Court with a simple prayer that it should interpret the constitutional span of his governorship. The apex court did - and that effectively scuttled Uba's 17-day governorship stint.

But even with the Andy Uba factor apparently neutralized, the upcoming 2010 gubernatorial poll in Anambra is still soaked in tension and unseemly intrigues as the chief character cast, backed by equally resolute godfathers, eye Awka Government House. Perhaps, this is understandable. The struggle for governorship in any of Nigeria's geo-political regions has never been a picnic. In Anambra particularly, this enterprise at times verges on blue murder. The struggle for who governs the state has customarily defied even knowledgeable bookmakers. This may be because there is no organized power structure in the state. There is no subsisting orderly or predictable succession regime. Add a mule-headed republicanism that often verges on the absurd and the Anambra picture is fairly complete.

At press time, with Uba 'knocked out', the stakes are still high and the spoils are prodigious. Conventional rules hold little water in this boisterious political theatre. The campaign for who succeeds Governor Obi began even on the day the soft-spoken economist took power. Recently, President Yar'Adua has expressed his displeasure with Prince Vincent Ogbulafor over the process that led to the emergence of the party's gubernatorial flag-bearer in Anambra State. There is more.

Deploying Machiavellian plots, the PDP had also attempted to derail key opposition parties in the state - especially the PPA and APGA- seen as the most potent threats to their retaking the state. The effects of these efforts are currently uncertain as both parties have successfully picked their candidates ahead of 2010 poll. Interestingly, the sack of successive national chairmen of the PDP clearly has links with seismic political intrigues in Anambra State. Current PDP national chairman, Prince Vincent Ogbulafor recently only escaped by the skin of his teeth from suffering the same fate. Or has he?

As Uba licks his chops from his most recent judicial drubbing, what are the options before him? Will he vengefully transmute into a spoiler-in-chief of the PDP in Anambra? How much help should he expect from Obasanjo, now seen as a waning force? With his large war-chest, what should take up the time of the former domestic assistant to Obasanjo. Will he consider defection to another party to pursue his scuttled ambition? What will the realignment of political forces be like in the state? These are legitimate posers. Read on...

In the peculiar Nigerian political milieu, a governor is a powerful personality. The man who seats pretty at the Government House wields considerable constitutional and extra-constitutional powers. He has such huge patronage to dispense, enough to make even kings green with envy. Little wonder it often becomes a do-or-die affair. In Anambra State in the South east geopolitical zone, the intrigues surrounding this project assumes an extra-ordinary dimension. This scenario perhaps best helps to frame and contexualise, Chief Andy Uba's unyielding quest to govern his state, since 2007.

It could be recalled that largely due to a presidential fiat by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Andy was abruptly positioned Uba to seize Awka Governemnt House, albeit for 17 days. As things stand now, Obasanjo is seen as diminished force unlikely to offer any strategic fight-back options to his former aide. After the Supreme Court ordered Uba to vacate Awka Government House for Governor Peter Obi to complete his constitutional tenure, he had returned severally to the courts, including the apex court to seek restoration of his mandate. If his efforts were a flight of fancy, then the Appeal Court judgement 48 hours ago effectively reinforced that impression and finally ended that enduring quest.

In the post victory and defeat euphoria as encapsulated in emotions expressed by opposing and supporting camps of Uba, what are the options available to him as he spies an uncertain political future?

'Plan B'

LEADERSHIP SUNDAY gathered that Uba, in a forward calculation should the court fail him had prepared a re-entry strategy. It was learnt that the Progressive Peoples Party governorship flag-bearer in the state, Hon Uche Ekwunife would step-down for him. On picking up the PPA ticket, all his PDP sympathizers would jump ship and join him. On this platform with the new political synergy, it was learnt that INEC's Prof Maurice Iwu would then move to actualize a secret pact to make him the next governor of Anambra State. Simultaneously, Iwu, it is speculated, would also be fulfilling 'an understanding' with Dr Orji Uzor Kalu, the former governor of Abia State and chairman, Board of Trustees of PPA.

It can be recalled that ahead of the 2010 governorship poll in Anambra, the parties still have up to November ending to submit the final list of their candidates. It was gathered also that should the PPA disappoint Uba, he would fish for tickets fro other parties.

LEADERSHIP SUNDAY gathered that there were bubbles of activities around Uba, as if nothing had happened, from the period following the appellate court's pronouncement. It also gathered that there were pro-Uba secret meetings in Uga and Awka centering on Uba's next move on te state's fluid political chessboard.

But when LEADERSHIP SUNDAY made inquiries from top echelon PPA sources, it learnt that the speculations were off the mark. A source revealed that Andy Uba is a hard-sell politically in the state. The source confirmed that Hon Ekwunife remains the PPA's governorship candidate in the state.

But inevitably, should Uba corner another party's ticket, the question and comparison will arise - Soludo and Uba, who is more popular.

The Obasanjo Factor

During his presidency, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo commanded the affairs of the PDP totally, from the presidential villa, even as the Uba brothers, enjoyed the magnanimity of his office. Through his friend (now foe) and former chairman of the party, Ahmadu Ali, they presided over the affairs of the party in the famous garrison command style, with little or no regard for internal democracy within the party. Out of power and presently not having the smoothest of relationships with his estranged god-son, the former president wields little or no influence in the scheme of things in the country. Though he retains the position of chairman of the board of trustees of the party, with the amendment of the party's constitution (which he had altered in his favour) under the present administration, he has been reduced to the statutory advisory role he is mandated to play in accordance with the party's constitution. From this quarter, Uba can apparently expect help at his own peril. As the retired general carefully watches the political drama in which he was, a while ago, the chief script-writer unfold, it may indeed be time for deep reflections in his expansive Ota farm, on the ephemeral nature of power.

The Cost...

Since after he was sacked as governor by the Supreme Court, 17 days after his sojourn in Awka Government House, Uba had returned to the Courts severally. Lawyers feasted on his naivety and generosity. Any attempt to cost the expenditure Uba had borne during this project could hardly be accurate as much financial water, so to speak, has flowed under the bridge. But Uba himself has not been heard to complain that he has lost a lot of money. This could be an indication of the depth of his pocket.

The Godfather Factor

Even with the ouster of Andy Uba, many believe he remains a factor. But the coast is still not clear about which way the gubernatorial cat will jump. While the template for the Anambra gubernatorial election is being cast, a focal factor will be the question of who pulls the strings behind the scene. This is as the state has been plagued by this anomaly since 1999. Remember the Emeka Offor and Mbadinuju saga. Next came the infamous kidnap of a serving governor, Chris Ngige, simply because he refused to dance to the tune of Chief Chris Uba. However as the strategizing for 2010 intensifies in the state, there is no telling what other god father will emerge.

The Ubas: Forces In Retreat?

Although Andy and Chris Uba are siblings, yet, there appears to be no middle ground between them when it comes to who pulls the strings in Anambra State. Andy (older of the two) and Chris have at different times, since the emergence of the present democratic dispensation, dictated the pace of political scheming in the state. More still, they belong to the same party, PDP. But as it stands now they seemingly struggle to emboss their relevance in the scheme of things within their party. Chris first emerged on the scene as godfather (post-Emeka Offor and Mbadinuju era) to the then governor, now Action Congress (AC) gubernatorial candidate, Dr. Chris Nwabueze Ngige, back in 2003. However, no thanks to a defiant, Ngige who was allegedly made to swear an oath of loyalty to his godfather to allot certain monies from the state coffers; the Chris fiefdom was exposed and suffered a terrible battering at the domain of public discourse.

With the collapse of Chris empire, came Andy, who was an influential in the government of the past president, Olusegun Obasanjo. Andy was his domestic aide. At the twilight of the Obasanjo era, he ran for the governorship position of the state and won while there was an incumbent governor, Peter Obi. According to reports, he was influential in getting the INEC boss, Maurice Iwu, his job as such the INEC gave him the nod. A Supreme Court ruling after, as filed by the present governor, Andy was sent packing form the government house, barely after 14 days a governor. He has since traversed from on court to another seeking to establish himself as the candidate in-waiting, seeking the court to stay elections in the state. He was however slugged aside by the party, when he sought to be the consensus candidate of the party in the state. However he still controls a faction of the Anambra PDP exco, as well as his brother. However, reports have it that Chris in concert with some other money bags in the state are bent on re-emerging again as godfathers by 2010 election.

Turai Yar'Adua - Seizing The Moment

Talks about the First Lady's weighty influence in her husband's administration are pervasive. As such she is seen as one of the key players in the present unfolding drama on who rules Anambra State. As it stands she has assumed the status of godmother to Soludo, a factor can not be waved off with the hand.

Orji Uzor Kalu - New Force On The Block

With the capture of two states during the 2007 elections by the Progressive Peoples Alliance, PPA, founder, cum presidential candidate of the party, Chief Orji Uzor Kalu is seen as the new kid on the block of god fathers. While his party cashed in on the irreconcilable fracture within the Imo state PDP, he single handedly installed his chief of staff as governor, after he finished his term as governor of Abia State. With this move, Kalu has continued to position himself and PPA as the alternative to a faltering APGA, which was supposed to be the flagship of the eastern political face. However, the party was to experience a heavy blow with the defection of the Imo state governor, Ikedi Ohakim, who was elected under the PPA platform. However with the disarray in the two leading parties in Anambra State, PDP and APGA, whether or not he can galvanize his party to equally capitalise on it will further establish him as a new force to reckon with.

Odumegwu Ojukwu - Fading Force

Renowned warlord, and former presidential candidate of the All Progressive Grand Alliance, Chief Dim Odumegwu Ojukwu, was the rallying point of the party. His image loomed large across the south east and more noticeably within the state. But with the five-year crisis that has somewhat reduced the potency of a party that was poised to be the anchor point of the south east, questions have been raised. Has his dominance in the consciousness of the people, besides the age factor, diminished. However attempts by the elder states man and the party chieftain to reconcile the Chekwas Okorie and Victor Umeh factions has proved abortive, resulting in a seeming dwindle of his clout with the party. However, his goodwill and acceptance in the state and in the south east still counts. Many feel his war threat when it appeared that Uba had influenced the outcome of his case may have been a factor in swinging the judgement to the current verdict.