Nairobi — Things are turning nasty in Jalle Rogerstan.

In Bossaso on November 9, thugs shot Judge Mohammed Abdi -- responsible for jailing a number of pirates and human traffickers -- dead in broad daylight.

On the same day, parliamentarian Ibrahim Ilmi Warsame was killed in a Bossaso restaurant.

On November 9, pirates attacked an oil tanker, the Hong Kong-flagged BW Lion.

It evaded capture, but the point of attack -- over 1,600 kilometres from the Somali coast -- established a new offshore distance record for the sea "shifta".

While the multi-national naval presence and US drones have increased the security of conventional shipping lanes, the pirates have responded by increasing their range.

The capture of the Spanish trawler Alakrana on October 2 suggests another significant shift.

The crew experienced "hellish" conditions at the hands of their captors.

The ship's captain told the Al Pais newspaper: "They spit in our faces. They kick us, and qhat-chewing guards intimidate the crew and increase our anxiety by firing off rounds all times of day and night."

In the Alakrana's port, this report inspired the locals to march in the streets, upping the pressure on the government to cut a deal. Last Monday, the trawler was freed after the Zapatero government agreed to a $3.5 million ransom for vessel and crew.

The rough treatment contrasted with the relatively humane treatment usually accorded captives under the pirates' internal code of conduct.

But there was a reason: the Somalis were using the 36 captives as pawns in negotiations for the release of two pirates, captured a day later, who are being tried in Spain.

These raised stakes nevertheless mark a new, more ruthless and violent stage in the pirate game.

The sector's financial flows demonstrate its convoluted aspect.

Pirate attacks reportedly rose from 37 in 2007 to over 120 in 2008.

This yielded some 40 prizes for the predators -- including three high-profile targets -- making Somali pirates one of the stories of the year: the Sudan-bound Ukrainian arms shipment on the FS Faina; Saudi supertanker Sirius Star; and the Maersk Alabama, the first US flagged vessel attacked.

Lucrative economic sector

Ransoms paid last year were in the range of $70 million; the BBC reports pirates have received another $30 million in 2009.

Of this, a third covers the costs and equipment, another goes to the financiers, and the remainder is divided among captain and crew.

While this makes piracy Puntland's and central Somalia's most lucrative economic sector, the figures generated on the shipping side of the equation no doubt dwarf the net profits of $65 million.

Pirate-induced shipping costs include kidnap and ransom insurance, ransom drop-off and specialist consultancy fees and the higher wages paid to crews transiting the Indian Ocean-Gulf of Aden pirate alley.

The Independent of London has calculated that foreign trawlers poach $300 million worth of Somali seafood every year.

The costs of the toxic waste dumped in Somali waters are more difficult to calculate but equally real.

These are the issues that catalysed the Somali response in the first place: local fishermen adopted vigilante tactics to protect life and resources.

The security concerns on both sides is a public good--that has acted to benefit a disparate range of private actors.

Daring dacoits in small skiffs have seeded a larger pirate class that includes shopkeepers in Eyl, insurers in London, military suppliers in the US, private security contractors based in Dubai, and real estate agents in Mombasa, Nairobi, Minneapolis and Canada.

A creative mechanism channelling a portion of the capital swishing through this fiscal loop to citizens of Somalia's coast and hinterland, and a pocket-sized version of the armada currently patrolling the million-square mile and expanding pirate hunting grounds, could resolve the security problem.

Pirates' standings eroded

The flight of pirate capital abroad, the importation of alcohol, and their swashbuckling behaviour has eroded the pirates' standings at home.

The assassinations in Bossaso can only feed the growing backlash.

The current pirate season is witnessing another incremental escalation in the number of attacks (now approaching 200).

This is partially a function of the falling success rates.

The International Maritime Bureau piracy report centre website lists 10 Somali attacks between November 7 and November 10, but only two captures.

But the captive/cargo market appears to be stagnating; some 230 crew and at least 10 ships are languishing in pirate coves awaiting redemption.

European security experts claim expanding range and other factors indicate a shift in pirate strategy towards more violent pursuit of fewer but higher value targets.

But the November 16 capture of a North Korean chemical tanker and its 28-man crew -- followed by the seizure of a Greek cargo ship and a Yemeni fishing boat in the same area -- contradicts this theory.

The North Korean hijacking in particular reveals a serious failure to discriminate.

Two weeks ago, Kim Jong-il's People's Democratic Republic of Korea threatened war after one of their gunboats skirmished with a South Korean navy vessel in contested territorial waters.

By this measure, the seizure of PDR citizens on the high seas is capable of provoking an agitated Hermit Kingdom to rain nukes on Hobyo, Haradhere, and Eyl.

That would be a real game-changer.

Paul Goldsmith is a researcher based in Meru, Kenya.