Nairobi — A couple of weeks ago, when secretary general of Zanzibar's Civic United Front, Seif Shariff Hamad led a party delegation to the State House to acknowledge Amani Abeid Karume as President, it was evident something had changed on the politically troubled Isle.

In 1995 when multi-party politics was reintroduced in Tanzania, the presidential contest in Zanzibar between Salmin Amour of the ruling CCM and Hamad of CUF was adjudged by most external and internal observers as "stolen."

Since then, three elections have been held -- all marred by varying degrees of opacity and unfairness, and CUF refusing to acknowledge the person declared by Zanzibar Electoral Commission as president, in an impasse that has lasted to this recent move by Hamad and his party.

This meant that de facto, Karume's writ did not extend to Pemba island -- an impregnable fief of Hamad and CUF.

So Hamad's words must have been music to Karume's ear, for he can now truly claim to be president of all Zanzibaris.

In fact, the political ice has thawed so much and so fast that within days of this recognition act, Tanzanians were treated to a rare spectacle when top leadership of CUF accompanied Karume to receive an honorary degree in Dar es Salaam.

But will this sudden burst of love among erstwhile foes last?

Are the two protagonists only waiting for the opportune moment to go for the jugular?

What is the significance of this move vis a vis the 2010 elections?

Are Zanzibaris now consolidating their Zanzibariness into something inimical to the survival of the Union?

The fact is, Zanzibari politics is so volatile and politicians are so entrenched and inflexible in their positions that a large dose of credulity is needed to believe what one is hearing and seeing now.

On the one hand, there are those in the ruling party, CCM, who will swear that Hamad and his followers are simply reincarnations of the regime they overthrew in 1964.

In fact, were one to scratch the skin of a typical CCM member, they would find the frozen thinking of the Afro-Shirazi Party that led the 1964 revolution, complete with its crude anti-Arabism and unsophisticated African nationalism.

Equally, there are young people in CUF, fired by an intellectually forward looking world-view who are in a hurry to change Zanzibar and perchance, Tanzania.

And the mass nature of all political organisations and intense passions generated by a sense of injustice have given rise to a volatile element that can easily turn violent when conditions are right.

Still, in the context of Zanzibar, these two find common ground -- they are both Zanzibari.

Sure enough, the statements made after the visit to Ikulu trashed earlier efforts at reconciliation as "externally driven" -- an allusion to the intervention by Chief Emeka Anyaoku, then secretary general of the Commonwealth, in the mid-1990s, after the 1995 impasse.

Hence, this accord unravelled in short order and Anyaoku's efforts, among others, came to nought.

Meanwhile, people were still being arrested arbitrarily, beaten up, tortured and killed, with those in power displaying levels of nonchalance that were simply staggering.

Now the Zanzibaris on both sides of the political chasm are saying, this is ours, it's our problem, it's our lives, it's our future.

They even shun the word mwafaka; it is an "external" term, tainted by indecision and procrastination.

So, can we expect a coalition government?

There are just too many people in Karume's outfit who would not know how to survive if their jobs were to be given to some young intellectuals in CUF.

They are already publicly warning Karume not to go that route.

As for Kikwete, all this might as well have taken place in another country.

When he came to power four years ago, he pledged to ensure mwafaka worked.

Tanzanians have waited, to no avail. In his place, the Zanzibaris have acted.

Jenerali Ulimwengu is a political commentator and civil-society activist based in Dar es Salaam.