IF what is happening in Anambra state over the race for the governorship election slated for February 6, 2010 is anything to go by, then Nigerians have to pray ceaselessly for 2011 elections not to witness chaos that may tear the whole country apart and scuttle the hard-won democracy.

As observed by a lawyer and gubernatorial candidate of the United Democratic Party (UDP) in the February 6, 2010 poll in Anambra State, Godson Okoye, the way the poll is conducted next year would definitely set the tone of what will happen in 2011. He added that it will also be an opportunity for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to write his name in gold and look before it leaps.

To most political pundits, this is apt as all eyes are on Anambra guber election next year and the way it goes will no doubt determine the expectations of Nigerians in 2011 general elections, the preparations of which have been gathering momentum and already causing ripples in some states.

Already, there have been hues and cries over the conduct or non-conduct of primaries for the gubernatorial election in the state, with members of the affected parties threatening fire and brimstone over the choice of candidates for the poll.

Recently, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state selected the former Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Professor Chukwuma Soludo, as its governorship candidate out of 47 other aspirants for the slot. Soludo emerged candidate due to the inability of the party to conduct primaries, which would have produced a candidate. This was due to a court injunction restraining the party from going ahead with the primaries until the determination of a substantive suit. In order to meet INEC's deadline, the PDP unanimously picked Soludo as the gubernatorial candidate.

This has being greeted with criticisms by both the other aspirants and members of the opposition parties led bythe Action Congress (AC) and Conference of Nigerian Political Parties (CNPP), which had threatened to go to court to void the nomination of Soludo, saying it did not meet the INEC's 6pm deadline for the submission of the names of the aspirants for the 2010 guber election in the state.

But INEC had reportedly denied deadline in Anambra polls, describing the alleged deadline as the figment of the imagination of the CNPP. On the other hand, the PDP insists that Soludo remains its candidate, describing the opposition parties in the country as empty shells, and that AC's criticism of the PDP on the matter, was based on ignorance.

The PDP, through its National Publicity Secretary, Prof. Rufai Ahmed Alkali, in a statement, said the choice of Soludo and his running mate, Emmanuel Anosike, by the party was after due consultations and the need to produce a team that could deliver in Anambra state.

"Given the fact that Lai Mohammed (AC national publicity scribe) spends most of his time talking and thinking less of party organisation and mobilisation, we do not expect him to understand the dynamics of administering of party as large as the PDP. There is no way anybody can compare the democratic credentials of the PDP, where 47 candidates were contesting to fly the party's flag, and the AC, which has a lone candidate ab initio. That 47 credible citizens of Anambra state sought to be candidates of the PDP bears ample testimony to the strength and acceptability of the party in that state. We, therefore, not owe Alhaji Mohammed any apology on how our candidates emerge.

"The choice of Prof. Soludo cannot, therefore, be described as an imposition neither is it a predetermined option but a product of wide consultation and the need to present a formidable candidate capable of uniting all political forces in Anambra state and ensuring our victory in the forthcoming election," Alkali stated, saying Soludo's name has been submitted to INEC, daring those not satisfied to go to court.

One of the party chieftains, Mr. Ken Emeakayi, went to the Federal High Court, Awka, challenging the governorship candidacy of Soludo. Before this, the 23 aggrieved aspirants led by Chuma Nwofo, had told newsmen in Abuja that a congress must be held to elect the party's gubernatorial candidate for the Anambra poll. "... We are not aware that the party has submitted any name to INEC. The primaries that would produce the candidate have not been conducted. We heard the rumour that the party has sent Soludo's name to INEC but we have not been officially informed about it. We are ready to go for the contest and we have sworn to an oath to abide by the guidelines. The ward congress was relatively successful. Soludo could not have pulled any crowd. We will not accept imposition of candidate", Nwofor had said.

However, it is the belief of the chieftains of the party that this will soon fizzle out and things will return to shape in the party. Olisa Metu, the national vice-chairman, South-East of PDP, has said that the problems emanating from Soludo's nomination would soon be a thing of the past, adding that the party was not bothered about the negative criticisms arising from the mode of selection of Soludo. "The truth about the matter is that the party is impressed with what it has done. Any body can say what he wants. All the aspirants had aspired to want to be the party's candidate, but whenever a party's candidate emerges by even any means or whatsoever, the decision of the party becomes supreme and people must show that they are loyal by supporting the candidate that has been chosen," Metu was quoted as saying.

True to his talk, it seems there is an end in sight to the brouhaha over Soludo's nomination as the party is prepared to settle out of court the suit filed by Mr. Emeakayi. Shortly after the Federal High Court, Awka adjourned further hearing in the suit to October 27, the National Legal Adviser of the party, Chief Olusola Oke, told newsmen that the possibility of an out-of-court settlement was being explored by the parties. Emeakayi, who also spoke in the same vein, stated that he was not ruling out the option of settling out of court if that would put the PDP house in order. With the Soludo nomination or is it selection brohaha now settled the real politicking to scheme Governor Obi out of office is on.

It is not PDP alone that has been enmeshed in crisis over the choice of gubernatorial candidate for 2010 poll in the state as other political parties are facing similar experience. For instance, the Progressive People's Alliance (PPA) had six aspirants contesting for the party's primaries on October 8, 2009, and a sitting member, House of Representatives, Hon. (Mrs.) Uchenna Ekwunife, won, beating the popular Emeka Etiaba, the son of the Deputy Governor of the state, Dame Virgy Etiaba, to second position. The result did not go down well with Emeka Etiaba as he has vowed that over his dead body would a woman beat him to second position in such a contest. According to him, he has restrained "and will keep restraining myself" from commenting on the planning and the execution of the primaries in order not to ridicule the party.

In a statement, Etiaba, a lawyer, said: "For the avoidance of doubt, I restate my earlier position that the victory awarded to the new Governorship candidate of the party is not only unmerited but a joke. Much as I will not challenge the verdict, I state unequivocally that the choice is most unacceptable to us at the Next Level Campaign Organisation and this being the case, we completely dissociate ourselves from such contraption. The journey to the Next Level in Anambra state is a serious journey and we of the Next Level Campaign Organisation insist that it is about Anambra State and not any individual or political party. In few days to come, our position on the governorship election will be made available and our decision on our next line of action, also disclosed."

Speaking in the same vein, another PPA aspirant, Dr. Okechukwu Eze, who stormed out of the governorship primary along other gubernatorial aspirants, denounced the exercise, describing it as "a charade, fraudulent, unacceptable and a rape on democracy," vowing to fight on until the result of the primary is reversed. "The Board of Trustees (BoT) chairman, national chairman and secretary (of PPA) were to be there, but they absconded. The delegates' list was doctored. We have about 1,700 delegates from original list prepared by the state executive brought by a fraudulent list which was used. Authentic delegates from the state were tear-gassed by the police. We are demanding for the original list. I am demanding justice and I am protesting that primary result. It's criminal and the perpetrators should be prosecuted. I should have won the primary if it wasn't rigged. I am contesting this Kangaroo primary till I get justice," Eze stated.

At the end of the day, Emeka Etiaba dumped PPA and has pitched tent with PDP.

In Osun State, there are various court cases as a prelude to the expectations of the people in the state come 2011. Already, the dust over the April 14, 2007 governorship poll is not settled as the retrial tribunal is yet to decide on the matter. The determination of the matter will make people know where the political pendulum in the state swings to in 2011.

Apart from the legal tussle over the winner of the April 14, 2007 gubernatorial poll, other cases abound. For instance, the II AC legislators in the House of Assembly have sued the House over the process adopted in the ratification, screening and swearing-in of members of the State Independent Electoral Commission (OSSIEC) by the Assembly, which is made up of 11 and 15 lawmakers of the AC and PDP, respectively. The opposition members in the suit dated June 22, 2009 filed by the Minority Leader, Hon. Timothy Owoeye, on behalf of others, urged the court to, among others, dissolve OSSIEC, describing it as illegal. The case is still pending.

Also, pending for determination in court is the election of local government chairmen and councilors done last year.

The opposition challenged the local government election and the Appeal Court ruled in their favour but the state government is challenging the appellate court verdict in the Supreme Court.

While all these are going on, the ruling party in the state, PDP is leaving no stone unturned in preparing for 2011 as members have shown interest in some positions. Two of the governor's aides, have shown interest in gubernatorial ambition in 2011. They are the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Alhaji Fatai Akinbade and the Chief of Staff to the Governor, Elder Peter Babalola (aka Peter Power). Members of the opposition are still pursuing the governorship case with the hope that victory will be theirs at the end of the day.

However, as the PDP at the centre is reportedly kicking against the sale of nomination forms for the 2011 aspirants, some aspirants especially from Ijeshaland are already kicking against the attitude of the elders in the area, who have allegedly pegged the number of aspirants. The aggrieved aspirants are querrying the rational by the elders for doing so, arguing that every body must be given equal opportunity to prove his/her mettle. According to them, the elders have no locus standi to determine who and who should contest for which post and that level-playing ground should be allowed for all the aspirants.

In Akwa Ibom State, Governor Godswill Akpabio is still building bridges of support across the major ethnic groups in the state. Recently, the Ibibio nation held a world congress where it endorsed the governor for a second term. It anchored its endorsement on giant developmental strides taken by the governor since coming to office two years ago. Governor Akpabio is from Ikot Ekpene and of Annang extraction, thus he needs the support of the more populous and influential Ibibio ethnic group. Many political analysts see the endorsement as an orchestrated spite and snub at his former boss and immediate past governor of the state, Obong Victor Attah. Obong Attah has questioned Akpabio's grandiose and giant developmental strides, pointing out areas of ambiguity and concern. That questioning sparked many political storms that threatened to blow away Attah's legacy from the state. Attah became the presumed arrowhead of opposition to Akpabio's re-election come 2011. The state is currently divided between Akpabio's sympathizers and Attah's supporters. Not to be caught flat-footed, Akpabio has begun to mobilize support especially from the likeliest source of trouble, Attah's constituency, Ibibio. For Akpabio, internal party opposition to his re-election remains his biggest headache. Will the Ibibios repeat in public what they have said in private? Will their allegiance remain with Akpabio come 2011? Well, two years is a very long time in politics, especially in Nigeria.

On its own, Rivers State offers a very peculiar scenario. Governor Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi's latest headache was the reappearance in court of Celestine Omehia who demanded for a review of the Supreme Court judgment that booted him out of office and brought Amaechi to power. Amaechi was shaken and called Omehia's court action as disgusting and insulting. No doubt, the head hunter will never allow you to walk behind him with a knife. Amaechi is well aware of what the courts can do; after all he owes his governorship to the Supreme Court. But the Supreme Court saved him as it dismissed Omehia's suit while calling it misguided and ill-advised. Now Amaechi must consolidate his tenure devoid of legal distractions. With the inability of internal party opposition to stop him, it remains a dejá vu that he would pick the party ticket come 2011.

Kaduna state is roughly divided between the south and the north. Southern Kaduna has never tasted the number one position in the state despite being more numerous in population and having distinguished sons and daughters. Yet, with over 54 ethnic groups in its make-up, the zone has failed to queue behind one candidate and harness effectively its numerical strength.

Southern Kaduna's political disunity has profited Hausa-Fulani majority in northern Kaduna, as they have produced every civilian governor of the state and are bent on doing it again in 2011. Governor Namadi Sambo may still exploit this political dissonance in southern Kaduna as he trudges to the next election. Already, some PDP members from Southern Kaduna have called on their kith and kin to support Governor Sambo for second term while they wait till 2015.

But president of the very powerful Southern Kaduna People's Union (SOKAPU), Professor Ishaya Haruna Nock, has vowed that the largely professed Christian region would challenge the Muslim dominated northern Kaduna for the governorship in 2011.

"The people of southern Kaduna have learnt from the past and are prepared to close ranks and work together for a common purpose. I can tell you that we are learning everyday from our mistakes and, in a nutshell, what I will tell you is that we are now prepared than ever before to take over the leadership of the state come 2011.........Now, we are working out a modality to support one candidate and speak with one voice come 2011, God wiling, we will take it"s Nock said: In 2007, Senator Isaiah Balat spearheaded the quest for a southern Kaduna governor but he lost in the PDP primaries to Governor Namadi Sambo. Who leads the charge in 2011?

While the modality is being worked out according to Professor Nock, the eight local government chairmen in southern Kaduna have already erected billboards supporting Governor Sambo for a second, term with the power of incumbency and the PDP near infallible election fixing structure, it remains very unlikely that SOKAPU can dislodge Governor Usman from power.

Edo state governorship election, like those of Rivers, Ondo and Cross River, will not hold in 2011. Governor Adams Oshiomhole took office last May and he has more than three years to go in his tenure. Yet, the daggers are already drawn on him as the Edo PDP has closed ranks and are bent on pushing him out, if not before 2012, then unfailing in 2012. Recently, two rallies were held by Edo PDP. The first was to welcome former Action Congress (AC) governorship candidate in 2007 elections, Mr Kenneth Imanshabon, into the PDP fold and the second rally was to reaffirm the new found unity in the state. With the two gladiators in Edo PDP, Chief Tony Anenih and Dr. Samuel Ogbemudia now reconciled and a new state executive inaugurated, PDP is determined to wrestle power from Oshiomhole's AC in 2012. with the home front stable, Gov Oshiomhole is gearing up to increasing criticisms of his government by the PDP have continued to chafe at the governor who never misses any opportunity to hit back. Definitely, come 2012, Oshiomhole will be up against the most potent opposition any governor can face and how he survives is till being concocted in some ancient Auchi magical shriness. His only saviour may remain the ever present disarray in Edo PDP over who represents the party in governorship election come 2013. Peopled with men of king-sized egos, Edo PDP may not arrive at any acceptable candidate to challenge Oshiomhole consequently, handing Oshiomhole the keys to Edo Government House again.

In Bayelsa State, Governor Timprie Sylva is coming under tremendous pressure to show why he should stand for re-election come 2011.

The opposition especially from PDP claims that Sylva's non-performance may cost the party the governorship as there is increasing public discontent with his government. Despite Bayelsa receiving one of the largest allocations shared from the federal revenue, the state remains very, very poor in infrastructure and superstructure.

Thus, there is the growing agitation to draft in Managing Director of former Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) Timi Alaibe, into the race. Alaibe is being sounded out in some quarters as the PDP governorship candidate come 2011.

Alaibe's present closeness to the Presidency and to Ijaw leadership put him in good stead with powers that be. Governor Sylva must prove to his opposition, both internal and external, that he has delivered tangible democratic dividends to Bayelsa. He is also aggravating a bad csase by his decision to raise N50 billion in the bond market on behalf of the state. If there is no proper accounting and transparency in managing states allocations, many Bayelsans reason that the N50 billion bond may also be fritted away. The opposition is arming itself with these facts and others in its case against Sylva as 2011 PDP governorship candidate and Bayelsa Governor.

While all these bickerings and political alignments and realignments are going on in some states ahead of 2011, the ruling PDP at the centre is not leaving any stone unturned to remain in power till God knows when. Already, its National Chairman, Prince Vincent Ogbulafor, has announced to the whole world that the party will rule the country for the next 60 years. This has been and is being orchestrated by other chieftains of the party who are as sure as death that PDP, which they claim to be the largest political party in Africa, is not in a hurry to relinquish its leadership position to any other political party in the country.

The party is even striving to capture more states in the new political dispensation. Kano and Lagos states are the main targets of the PDP as it said that the two states are strategic to it. Prince Ogbulafor did not mince words on this as he has told the leaderships of the party there to ensure that PDP wrestle power from the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the Action Congress (AC), respectively, now at the helms of affairs in the two states.

But the opposition parties are not relenting and they have described the PDP's boast as not only empty but a dream that will not come true. In Kano where ANPP holds sway, the ruling party there said unless the PDP rigged the election, there won't be any way for it to win any poll because the state (Kano) is the home of ANPP. Also, in Lagos, immediate past Governor Bola Tinubu said the PDP was dreaming to have said it would capture the AC ruling state, vowing that there is no amount of rigging by the PDP that will make AC lose Lagos.

To ensure that PDP does not call the shots again especially at the centre, various measures have been and are being adopted by the opposition. A mega-party spearheaded by the elder statesman, Chief Anthony Enahoro, is formed to displace PDP. Also, a group, National Democratic Movement (NDM), has been formed by top opposition figures, among them General Muhammadu Buhari, ANPP presidential candidate in 2003 and 2007 elections, former Vice president Atiku Abubakar, who was also the AC presidential standard bearer in 2007 election having fallen out from the PDP and Chief Olu Falae, former secretary to the Government of the Federation, minister for Finance and the joint presidential flagbearer of AD (now AC) ANPP in 2003 election. The NDM, which is saying it is not a political party, is claiming to be a platform working for free and fair elections in Nigeria. But it is said that the movement is part of the plans to wrest power from the ruling PDP.

Apart from that, there is also a coalition of Buhari, Atiku and Attahiru Bafarawa, former Governor of Sokoto State, to ensure that the dream of PDP to continue in power eventually turns into that of the Rip Van Winkle's. Atiku is saying that change is inevitable as Nigerians have not reaped any dividends of democracy, lamenting that the past 10 years of democracy were all wasted except, may be the first three years.

The former number two citizen of the country did not hide his feelings recently while featuring on the Hausa service of the Voice of America (VOA) as he regretted that instead of delivering the much-expected dividends of democracy during the Olusegun Obasanjo administration, energy was dissipated fighting the third term agenda, which of course, pitted him against his then boss (Obasanjo). This he said formed the coalition of the trio to save Nigeria from incept leadership and total collapse.

"We have set aside the issue of contesting, all of us; we said let us unite first and rescue this country. If we rescue the nation, any one of us God has given the mandate we will all support and stay together and work for the people. We were the ones who put our heads together and ensured that there was no third term. So, anything you are looking for politically, the three of us have it.

"Bafarawa was the governor for eight years; Buhari was Head of State and myself vice president. Therefore, anything that is needed to solve the problem of this country, we have it. We have agreed to have one ideology. We accept democracy, we agreed that nothing will help the people of this country except they bring back truth and work for the people to become self-reliant in social amenities such as security, education and health," Atiku said.

As Atiku is saying this, however, another coalition, Coalition Committee of Buhari Groups, met in Kano penultimate week to drum support for Buhari for 2011 presidency. The coalition told members specifically at the meeting of the need for them to be united under one umbrella for Buhari to realize the presidential ambition in 2011. According to the chairman of the Coalition, Alhaji Kabiru Gwangwazo, "Already, from feelers, the people of Kano have decided that they have got their new Mallam Aminu Kano in General Muhammadu Buhari, who shares the same people-oriented progressive ideologies with the late Mallam Aminu Kano."

While some members of PDP are saying that the coalition of any group will not wrestle power from the party, describing it as child's play and fruitless efforts, the others are of the view that the common front being formed by the opposition political parties against PDP is scary. Confirming the fears recently is the PDP National Chairman, Prince Ogbulafor. Receiving the report of the Ike Nwachukwu-led Peace and Reconciliation Committee set up to appease all aggrieved members of PDP, Ogbulafor said the report would go a long way in determining the fate of the party in the face of imminent trouble awaiting it by the coming together of the opposition. He told the committee: "We have an uphill challenge with the coming together of the opposition; the government and the party are being challenged and therefore, if we are challenged, you are part of us."

From the look of things, there is no doubt that there is potent danger in 2011 if care is not taken as the politicians have turned politics into a do-or-die affair. Their activities have led credence to the fact that most of them are vying for the positions for their selfish ends.

Already, a Prophet, Primate Babatunde Elijah Adewole, has predicted chaos in Anambra in 2010 because the poll winner in the governorship election would be denied his mandate which would lead to anarchy in the state. The clergyman in an interview with Sunday Champion penultimate week, said: "God has revealed the person that will win the election but they will not give that person the chance to rule. It is not Peter Obi or Chris Ngige. Soludo will not win but he will have a 'packaged victory' to govern Anambra state. The election will not be smooth, it will be full of rigging and ballot box snatching will be the order of the day. Anambra needs prayers in 2010. The people's choice will not be installed as the governor. It is not an election that cannot be decided by votes. It is going to be an election of bribe. A lot of gimmicks will surround the election. If care is not taken, Anambra election will trigger a lot of problems that will leave unpleasant consequences for Nigeria."

Probably pre-empting the looming danger and in order to ensure violence-free elections in the country, either Anambra 2010 Governorship election or 2011 generl elections, the Inspector-General of Police (IGP) recently summoned senior police officers across the country from the rank of Commissioner of Police and above to a meeting last week at the Force Headquarters, Abuja. The meeting explored ways out of the current insecurity in Anambra state due to the forthcoming gubernatorial elections in less than four months time and also exploring some strategies on how to check crime especially among the political class. The IG told his top officers in each state command to be proactive to avoid any form of eventuality in the forthcoming general elections.

Be that as it may, would politicians play the game according to rules to avoid any untowards development that will set the country on fire? Definitely, how the Anambra poll is handled in February next year as being said by political pundits and prominent Nigerians including Chief Emeka Anyaoku, will set a tone for 2011 general elections. Are Nigerians ready to avoid danger?