In writing it was a 'real' deal signed by the five East African leaders. However, many questions remain unanswered as the presidents move towards forming a free-trade area in the region. Rodney Muhumuza explores the blockages in the crucial process

On November 20, when presidents within the East African Community signed the regional bloc's Common Market Protocol, adding new documentation to a process that should have been completed in April, the five men had negotiated one more bend in a tricky road that may lead to political federation. In many ways, the stated objective of a common market - "to widen and deepen cooperation among the partner states in the economic and social fields" - captures the hopes and aspirations of a bloc that once collapsed, in 1977, under the weight of its goals.

In Arusha, where the protocol was signed amid fanfare, East Africa's leaders were also celebrating 10 years of a revamped body - a bloc whose mission (and challenges) remain largely what they were in 1977, when Idi Amin was President of Uganda. A review of the literature from the 11th Ordinary Summit of the Heads of State of The East African Community, as the ceremony in Arusha was officially called, shows that the players running the organisation do not pretend that achieving political federation would be smooth sailing.

In fact, implicit in the communiqué from the event is the lingering question of just what shape such a federation would assume, and, more critical, if all the partner states are now on the same footing. The Council of Ministers, which makes the policies that govern the bloc, was asked to prepare a programme for "continuous and in-depth sensitisation including initiatives to promote mutual trust, confidence building, an East African identity and solidarity among citizens of East Africa..."

Federation challenges

The Council of Ministers, comprising the five EAC ministers, was also tasked to "constitute a team of experts to undertake detailed studies on the concerns raised and challenges identified on political federation". But before the partner states start to seriously obsess themselves with political federation, all eyes will be on the gains made from the Customs Union, which could become fully operational in January 2010, and the Common Market Protocol, which is expected to be ratified in July 2010. Also, before any kind of political federation is negotiated, the bloc must have a Monetary Union by 2012.

Bloc unwelcome

Already, at least according to businessmen in Kampala, the Customs Union is not delivering all the goods. "We are not excited," said Issa Sekitto, the spokesman for Kampala City Traders Association. "The challenges are greater than the achievements we see. There are so many constraints to trade which are not tax-related. There is the clearance of goods, the auctioning of Uganda-bound goods at Mombasa port, thieves in Kenya, etc."

In Arusha, where all EAC leaders showed up in a profound statement of unity, their justice ministers standing tall behind them as they signed the Common Market Protocol, it was a happy-birthday atmosphere. There was talk of making the regional anthem "mobilisational", as the communiqué put it, and a foundation stone to mark the start of construction work on the building that would house the EAC headquarters was unveiled.

And the theme for the EAC's 10the anniversary said: "One People One Destiny." In all its complexity, the ceremony demonstrated a keen attention even to the small details, and it may have played an important, if fleeting, role in dimming the idea of political and economic unevenness among the partner states. In the end, the year 2015 remained the target for reaching a political union.

What next?

Yet some questions remain. As birthdays go, what happens when the cameramen go away, when the makeup runs thin, when all the presidents board their planes and return home, when every man has to be judged on merit? In 2012, when the EAC Monetary Union is expected to become operational, Uganda will be one year out of an election that, many observers predict, will be marred by post-election violence.

If the number of educators applying for grants to help reduce the possibility of post-election violence is anything to go by, and since certain electoral reforms have not been implemented by the government, there is the fear that the 2011 general elections will not be free and fair, at least not any less chaotic than elections past.

Violent past

In Kenya, where a presidential election in 2007 ended in deadly violence, the threat from tribal clashes remains real. Burundi's worst years may be firmly behind it but the country remains unpredictable, while President Paul Kagame's record has most recently been attacked by some members of the Commonwealth, which Rwanda is trying to join. In the grand scheme of things, only Tanzania could claim a measure of political sobriety.

With its promise of free movement of services, goods, people and capital, a common market could revolutionise how East Africans do business with each other. It might take socio-economic exchange to the next level, but its success would not guarantee a smooth transition to political federation. Long before the Common Market Protocol was signed, someone could take the bus from Kampala and arrive in Nairobi within 13 hours, and vice versa.

This cultural interaction, in spite of language and other differences, has existed for long. But is there such a thing as a common psyche, a common mindset, a common consciousness? If such an identity exists at all, is it a positive one? When the Council of Ministers constitutes the panel of experts, whose essential job would be to find answers to the challenges of establishing a political federation in East Africa, it is the one question they cannot avoid.

Political federation

"Forget political federation," said Mr Dan Wandera Ogalo, who represents Uganda at the East African Legislative Assembly. "It is not going to come, because the countries are stuck in their sovereignty. They are not willing to cede political authority to Arusha." In Mr Ogalo's analysis, the politics practiced by the five partner states "are not aligned," and it is absurd that East Africans do not have a common identity card by now. "That [identity card issue] is an area of great weakness," Mr Ogalo said. Some countries in the partnership have presidential term limits, and, in the case of Rwanda, a full presidential term lasts seven years instead of the usual five. "There are many differences in the political systems," Mr Ogalo said.

Excitement

The idea of a common identity among East Africans is one that excites politicians and academics in different ways, but sometimes the results may be similar. Mr Aaron Mukwaya, a senior lecturer in political science at Makerere University, said it was futile to try and find a common conscience. "You will have to turn negatives into positives," Mr Mukwaya said, arguing that the Museveni Administration's relentless search for "patriotism" is at odds with the idea of an EAC political federation. "If you want to be a patriot, you cannot be an East African," Mr Mukwaya said. "They are building structures based on the wrong assumptions... I do not know that we are supposed to be brought together."