Nairobi — THE proposed vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Raila Odinga is likely to be defeated if it comes to Parliament, according to preliminary analysis by the Star.

However the battle could still be intense as allies of Agriculture minister William Ruto have reportedly set up a committee of four MPs to produce a watertight motion of no confidence.

The Star analysis predicts that 123 out of 221 MPs (excluding President Kibaki) would support the PM while 90 MPs could vote against him (see list of MPs on Page 8) leaving 8 MPs undecided.

The analysis considered how MPs would vote on a motion of no confidence bearing in mind the status of the coalition government, the ongoing reforms, and the support of MPs for Raila and Ruto.

In the analysis, we established that the majority of Nyanza MPs and North Rift MPs would back Raila and Ruto respectively. South Rift, which has a Masai people and Kipsigis component, might have a split vote.

The majority of Western Province MPs and Nairobi would back the Prime Minister.

However, Eastern Province will vote against Raila except three or two MPs, who are allies of Raila.

The majority of MPs from Central and North Eastern could back Ruto.

The vote would also split Coast province right down the middle.

Yesterday it emerged that the Ruto faction has set up a committee of four MPs led by Konoin MP Dr Julius Kones to coin watertight grounds on which a censure motion against Raila would be moved.

A city lawyer associated with the minister has attended meetings with the four MPs in Eldoret and Nairobi to help them craft an effective motion of no confidence.

"We have a committee of four working on 16 grounds under which the motion would be plotted, but the main thing is that we have evidence that Raila has abused his office and gone beyond the supervisory roles the constitution mandates him to discharge," said Chepalungu MP Isaac Rutto.

Rutto said the group behind the censure motion will seek to prolong the life of parliament beyond Thursday, December 3, when it was due to break for Christmas.

"Once the committee is through with the analysis and logistics they are working on, we shall move a motion seeking an extension of parliament in order to deal with this man (Raila)," said Rutto.

According to the National Accord and Reconciliation Act, Parliament requires a simple majority to censure the PM.

However the PM's censure does not automatically lead to the dissolution of parliament. The largest party, ODM, would then have to elect a new leader to take over as Prime Minister.

If the ODM fails to do that, the Accord allows for a coalition of parties in Parliament to choose a Prime Minister. Theoretically the coalition government could continue without Raila as Prime Minister.

The proposed vote of no confidence follows an escalation of tension within government after William Ruto organized a harambee for Mau evictees on Wednesday.

Nine cabinet ministers and 54 MPs led by Deputy Prime minister Uhuru Kenyatta attended in what was perceived as a precursor of a Kalenjin-Kikuyu alliance for the 2012 elections.

Ruto then teamed up with Tourism minister Najib Balala for two weekend rallies at the Coast where they declared war on old guards while Raila hit back warning in weekend rallies of a political tsunami that would sweep his opponents into the sea.

The Prime Minister has insisted that he would not be deflected from implementing government policy on the Mau but Ruto says that Cabinet never agreed that any squatters would be thrown out without being compensated.

Yesterday, Justice minister Mutula Kilonzo joined the list of MPs opposed to the censure motion.

He warned that a vote of no confidence on the Prime Minister would derail the reform agenda in Kenya.

"Petty disputes like the Mau should not make us exclude the PM because we need him to deliver reforms," Mutula said.

"Cabinet minister James Orengo and I participated in the national accord talks that put in place the coalition government. The coalition was formed with specific objectives particularly of delivering the constitution and other reforms," said Mutula. "I will not therefore be in a hurry to participate in such a censure motion against the PM." Mutito MP Kiema Kilonzo whom the organizers wanted to move the motion in Parliament declined.

"I cannot take it because it is an unnecessary political game. I will stand with the Prime Minister. I have differed with him on the manner in which the humanitarian situation of the Mau saga has been handled, but even this does not amount to a vote of no confidence," said Kiema.

Some MPs who support Ruto have said the vote is a "tribal and vengeful affair".

"I want to tell Ruto that I have supported him as a friend, but if he is the one fanning this, then I will disappoint him, I will not vote against the PM," said Dujis MP Aden Dualle.

"I want to tell the ill minded individuals planning the censure motion against the PM, that on this they will not get my support, because it is absolutely unnecessary, we are in a coalition government and let us support the government's reform agenda," said Keyio North MP Lukas Chepkitony.

Ikolomani MP Dr Bonny Khalwale warned against the censure motion.

"The plotters of this motion are individuals obsessed with ill gotten wealth stolen from the public over several decade. If there is war to be fought, then Kenyans need to come up strongly to stop this group from advancing their sinister motives," Khalwale said warning of another Kanu takeover.

"They are talking of change, that Ruto is going to bring Kenyans change; Uhuru is going to take Kenyans to the future; Balala is going to reform Kenya. Give us a break. We know these people and we know the PM Raila.

We do not want foul change," Khalwale said.

Others who spoke against the censure motion are Kimili MP Dr Eseli Simiyu, Imenti Central MP Gitobu Imanyara, Bonchari MP Charles Onyancha, Ndaragua MP Elias Mbau and Kaloleni MP Kazungu Kambi who played host to Ruto and Balala at the weekend.