Business Daily (Nairobi)

Kenya: Climate Change - Time is Running Out

opinion

In November 2006, Sir Nicholas Stern and his committee published a report on the Economics of Climate Change which painted an alarming picture of the impact of global warming on our planet.

It is worth looking at the findings of this study as it gives some good pointers of what we need to do.

The executive summary of this report starts with an interesting comment: "climate change presents very serious global risks, and it demands an urgent global response"

Note the demand for a global response: while we in this region may not have contributed significantly to the problem, we will have to be a part of the solution.

Indeed the report goes on to say: "Climate change is global in its causes and consequences, and international collective action will be critical in driving an effective, efficient and equitable response on the scale required."

The report also sees climate change as "the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen."

Clearly the current economic downturn pales in comparison.

After all, climate change may well cause extinction of mankind as we know it and urgent steps will be needed to avoid this terrible consequence.

So what are the key findings of this important study?

Well firstly, it is thought that the benefits of strong, early action on climate change far outweigh the costs.

This is clearly good news as it makes good business sense when the cost benefit analysis is in favour of the benefit.

However, it is important to remember that unlike a short term business decision, what we do today in regards to climate change will have a long lead time.

Results will not be seen overnight and the benefit may well not be felt till the second half of this century or the early part of the next.

Tackling climate change is the pro-growth strategy and this will need elements of mitigation and adaptation.

The second important point that is raised in the report is: there is considerable scientific evidence that suggests an increasingly irreversible path if we continue with business as usual.

The levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have significantly increased since the Industrial Revolution and this has resulted in a half degree rise in global temperatures.

It is estimated that even if we continue as we are, the levels will double from that at the Industrial Revolution by 2050.

Thirdly, climate change threatens the basic elements of life for people around the world - access to water, food production, health, and use of land and the environment.

Fourthly, the damage from climate change will accelerate as the world gets warmer.

Strange and unseen weather patterns will become the norm.

This is something that we have already witnessed and indeed in our region we are currently witnessing with the drought.

Fifth, and to my mind a very important point: the impact will not be evenly distributed.

The poorer regions of the world will be hardest hit and ironically they were not part of the cause.

Damage that has already occurred or may occur in the future is likely to be irreversible unless steps are taken now.

The impact on agricultural output is likely to be significant and when one considers that much of the developing world depends on this output, one can understand the impact it will have on the poor of the world. The curse of poverty is set to rise.

On a slightly brighter side, the report's sixth point is that countries in the extreme northern latitudes will see short term benefits.

Temperature rises in Canada, Russia and the Scandinavian countries could result in higher agricultural yields, lower heating requirements and more tourists.

The report goes on to look at the economic side of climate change having looked first at its effect on mankind.

In essence the report concedes that the cost of managing climate change is significant but yet manageable if we address matters now.

"The overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least five per cent of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20 per cent of GDP or more."

In conclusion, the Stern Report suggests that a global response is essential and urgent.

To this end an international framework is proposed and I shall look at this in relation to our own region in future articles on the subject.

What is clear though is that time is running out on us.

What took billions of years to create could very easily cease to exist in the next 100 years.

Mankind is its own worst enemy and yet we have the where withal to decelerate the destruction and we must do this for the benefit of future generation.

Hira is Tax Partner, Deloitte & Touche, East Africa The views expressed in the article are the authors and not necessarily those of the firm.


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