Daily Champion (Lagos)

Nigeria: Copenhagen - What Future for Nation?

analysis

Today will remain remarkable in world history. The most eagerly-awaited climate change conference since the Kyoto protocol agreement 12 years ago opens in Copenhagen, Denmark, with deep divisions remaining between governments of richer and poorer countries.

The aim of the two-week United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to agree a new round of radical action to combat climate change beyond 2012, when the Kyoto targets for cutting green house gasses (GHG) emissions in richer countries, by an average of 5.2 per cent, expire.

Around 200 countries and over 100 world leaders are expected in attendance. Except the United States President Barrack Obama, who is expected Wednesday, his colleagues are billed for the last two days. Nigeria has vice- President Goodluck Jonathan as leader of it delegates, made of top government officials at federal and state levels, climatologists, environmental experts and scientists.

Many civil and business groups will also be in attendance. Equally, journalists across the world will be on hand for live coverage of the summit

Interestingly, Nigeria will on behalf of Africa, play a key role at the conference. The country became a signatory to the convention on June 13, 1992, and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in December 2004.

Negotiators from the country at the summit have been told to make great sacrifices where needed to make the country and the coming generations proud of their contributions.

Afterall, the country is the most populous and economically viable in the region. It cannot afford to fail in this great assignment, expected to be done with high sense of dedication to duty and focus on making maximum gain for both Nigeria and entire African region.

Nigeria's John Odey, Minister for the Environment will lead the technical negotiation talk while Governor Raji Fashola of Lagos State (the most climate change vulnerable state in the country) is considered for the sub- regional talk.

All these is to facilitate effective negotiation for the entire African region.

However, ahead of the conference, developing countries have been sharply critical of the developed world for proposing cuts that fall far short of the reductions needed to avoid catastrophic climate change - according to the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

They are also demanding promises of much higher contributions of aid from the industrialized world to cope with the impacts of climate change, which in Nigeria, could include the blighting of large areas of coastal land by sea-level rise, and an acceleration of desertification in the Sahel region.

Studies have shown that African nations in particular are the least responsible for carbon emissions (around 4 per cent of the world total) but that they are the ones worse hit and suffer from the dire consequences, which further putting their health, agriculture and water resources and also environment in grave danger.

Nigeria from the figure contributes 0.79 per cent, an estimation of 2.1 metric tons/person.

This excludes the land use charge according to World Resources Institute as at 2005 when the research was conducted.

But locally, land use, and land use charge and forestry (LULUCF) is said to account for 40 per cent of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Behind it are gas flaring (30 per cent), transport (20 per cent), electricity and other energy sources (9 per cent), and industrial processes (1 per cent).

For richer countries, they are seeking stronger commitments from large developing countries, in particular China and India, to limit the growth of their emissions.

China in particular has now overtaken the United States as the world's leading emitter of greenhouse gases, although China's emissions per person are approximately one-quarter those of the Americans.

Some world's notable figures including US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, had called for further flexibility from these emerging economies, for humanity sake and in a spirit of partnership.

So also is the senior UN official in charge of the summit, Yvo de Boer, who had earlier expressed worried as various parties were far apart in agreeable deal before this conference.

Nevertheless, some weeks back have seen significant concessions from both sides - but not enough to bridge a gulf still wide enough to make collapse of the talks a real possibility.

In a major shift from his predecessor, George Bush, United States President, Barack Obama, has offered a 17 per cent cut in emissions by 2020, from their level in 2005.

However, this represents virtually no change since 1990, despite the promise of a seven per cent cut agreed by the then vice-President, Al Gore at Kyoto, Japan conference, before Mr. Bush pulled out of the protocol three years later.

Some developing countries on their parts, have offered voluntary constraints on their emissions - most notably China, with a pledge to reduce "carbon intensity" by 40 per cent by 2020.

This means that emissions would grow 40 per cent less quickly than the economy but on current projections, it still suggests that Chinese emissions would be rising up to 2020 and beyond.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, one of heads of government expected at the conference, has offered to keep emissions between 36 and 39 per cent below "business as usual" by 2020 - amounting to a virtual standstill from their 2005 level.

This is to be achieved largely through a promised cut of 80 per cent in the rate of destruction of the Amazon, the world's largest tropical forest.

However, the Obama administration is under pressure to extract firm commitments from developing countries to accept binding emissions limits, as members of Congress currently debating climate change legislation fear that unilateral cuts in the US would risk exporting jobs to countries where no such limits exist.

Many African governments complain of having been marginalised in the UN climate process.

For example, of more than 1900 projects approved under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to fund emissions-saving activities in the developing world, just 36 are in Africa.

Nigeria is not included in the number. The only known project near qualification for CDM is of the Lagos State government at Ikorodu, a suburb community in the state.

Funded by the World Bank, the project is still without CDM certificate.

However, funding opportunities for Africa may emerge from a new mechanism being discussed at Copenhagen, to reward countries that prevent deforestation, estimated to account for around one-fifth of all human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.

The African group of governments negotiating in Copenhagen wants such incentives to be extended to drylands and savannahs as well.

In addition, Nigeria's Odey, who is optimist ic about the summit, said, the forum would also bring about technology transfer, finance and capacity building to the country, an highy dependent oil economy, while calling on Nigerians at home to cultivate behaviour that would help to achieve low carbon emissions.

Although, the original ambition of UN negotiators was to seal a new, legally-binding treaty by the end of the Copenhagen talks, the most likely outcome now being mooted is a headline political agreement, including quantified targets and timetables.

A further conference in 2010 would finalise the detailed language to give it legal force.


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