Nairobi — Climate change is soon expected to be a major force fuelling human displacement, the United Nations has warned. UN High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres predicts that climate change will be the biggest driver of displacement, both in and across borders.

The warning comes when natural calamities that have hit the Horn of Africa, especially Somalia, have resulted in a huge number of people migrating to food-secure places, with thousands finding refuge in the Dadaab camps of Hagadera, Ifo and Dagahaley.

Kenya hosts over 300,000 Somali refugees in Dadaab and Kakuma camps, but a UNHCR official in Dadaab, Ms Felicia Owusu, said there has been a surge in new arrivals due to drought in Somalia.

Mr Guterres said while climate change was hitting southern countries harder, the northern hemisphere was also likely to face climate shifts and related population movements.

A staggering 36 million people were displaced by natural disasters last year, more than 20 million of them by climate-related factors, he said. He said the frequency of droughts was increasing while rising sea levels threatened to submerge island nations.

Move elsewhere

Mr Guterres emphasised the growing link between climate change and conflict. "Climate change breeds competition for water, food and grazing," he said.

Drought has forced pastoralists to move elsewhere in search of pasture and water, resulting in bloody confrontations with neighbours. Hard hit are the Samburu, Pokot, Masaai and Turkana.

He also cited a recent study by US universities that found climate change could increase the risk of civil war in Africa by more than 50 per cent in the year 2030 compared to 1990.