The Meteorological Department's attempts to absolve itself of blame over the heavy losses farmers in parts of the country are likely to incur following the failure of its heavily publicised El Nino rains is a desperate, if poorly executed, effort at cleansing its already tarnished image.

Rather than address the core concern that the department misled Kenyans to invest heavily in farming, water storage and disaster preparedness in readiness for the rains, the forecaster has turned academic, explaining El Nino as a hot air phenomenon that may or may not yield rain.

To back up this the department is relying on one sentence in its forecast for October to November - released on August 26.

The tone and theme of the entire forecast, however, was celebratory: that after a spell of prolonged drought, an early Christmas present was at hand in the form of El Nino rains.

"The outlook for October-November-December 2009 "Short Rains" Season indicates that most parts of the country are likely to experience enhanced rainfall that will be well distributed both in time and space."

On specific regions the forecast gave a verdict of near-normal rainfall with a tendency to above-normal (slightly enhanced) rainfall for much of Rift Valley, Nairobi, Eastern, and Central Province.

The other areas - Western, Nyanza, parts of Rift Valley, North Eastern and Coast province were categorised under above normal (enhanced) rainfall).

On the potential impact of the rains, the department went on to project heavy storms last month that hardly materialised, advising farmers to "work closely with the Ministry of Agriculture and take advantage of the expected good rainfall performance, the extended rainfall season, and extended length of the growing period, to maximize on the crop yield."

The advice given to farmers was also extended to various sectors, identifying opportunities and challenges that lay in the expected enhanced rainfall.

From the foregoing, it is clear that farmers did not equate El Nino to rain based on previous experiences; the weathermen did.

While we admit that forecasts can go terribly wrong, we find the Meteorological Department's dishonesty and attempts to pass blame onto farmers unacceptable on several grounds.

For one, had the forecast gone as predicted would the department be dismissing El Nino as a prolonged dose of hot air?

Certainly not. It would be engaged in chest-thumping just like in 1998 when its warnings were not heeded by relevant government departments leading to infrastructure damage.

Secondly, it makes future forecasts by the department less credible in the public mind, an undesired scenario given that the department is the only national institution with the resources to guide all sectors on how to plan economic activities around changing weather scenarios.

Third, it obviates the need for adequate funding to expand the departments national reach and acquire sophisticated modelling equipment, meaning misleading and generalised weather outlooks are going to be with us for a long time to come.

While observing weather elements as measured from various measuring instruments is the child play of meteorology, making sense of the measurements and presenting them in a user friendly form essentially separates the expert from the novice. It is not just a question of training.

Acquiring advanced interpretative tools is at the heart of getting precise forecasts for a specific station, region and country.

By insisting that the forecast was spot on in the face of evident coverage, human and technological constraints, the department is shooting itself in the foot and shielding Kenyans from investing more in the demanding science that is making sense of the elements.