Aid agencies are warning of a possible major conflict in Southern Sudan which could pose a fresh security threat to its neighbours like Kenya if no urgent international intervention is taken to save the current tottering peace deal.

In a report released yesterday, the ten agencies said the peace agreement between the Sudanese government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement that ended one of Africa's longest and deadliest wars is on the brink of collapse.

The report--released ahead of the fifth anniversary of the signing of the peace deal cites a lethal cocktail of rising violence, chronic poverty and political tensions as factors threatening to rip apart the deal and eventually trigger war.

"We are very concerned that the deteriorating humanitarian situation and frustration over the lack of progress in the peace deal will exacerbate existing tensions and boil over," said the International Rescue Committee (IRC) director Richard Poole while launching the report dubbed "Rescuing the Peace in Southern Sudan."

"The next 12 months are going to be the litmus test for the country's stability due to the expected general election the country is set to undergo which will be the curtain raiser for next year's referendum" .

The referendum is part of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which brought an end to the civil war.

In 2009, some 2,500 people were killed and 350,000 fled their homes, a human toll greater than occurred last year in Darfur, complicating stability in the neighbouring regions in Kenya and Uganda. The rest of the world, the agencies said has largely overlooked this suffering. Communities say that women and children have increasingly been targeted in attacks on villages and the Government of Southern Sudan and international peacekeepers have not been able to protect them.

Under the CPA Southerners have the choice to either secede resulting in an independent state or to remain as part of Sudan but analysts predict that the Southerners will opt to break away from the North.

Chris Abongo a foreign policy expert says that it is an open secret that there has been tension between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA).

"The NCP has been seen to be taking unilateral decisions and other disagreements include issues on voter registration and how to go about the elections," says Mr Abongo.

But there are doubts on whether the South will accept the outcome of the results of next year's referendum after its regional government denied the census results.

The census results showed that the South's population was 21 per cent which is below the 28 per cent threshold, the minimum amount needed for constitutional change.

The Southern government rejected the validity of the population boom in the Darfur region which is said to have ballooned by 50 per cent.

"A successful referendum in which the Southern Sudanese determine their own future is Sudan's best chance for peace," Mr Poole said.

Oil revenues in the Aiwel region may also prove to be another potential bone of contention. Under the CPA, oil revenues from the South are to be split equally with the Northern government but the Northern government gets to keep all the revenues from oil in its region.

Geographically the Aiwel region is in the North but its population is mostly comprised of the Dinka community who consider themselves Southerners.

Apart from the North-South conflict there has also been a spate of violence among Southerners and the search for resources is acting as the catalyst.The south, an area the size of France has slightly less than 50 kilometres of tarmac roads, while half the population lack access top clean drinking water and adult literacy is less than 20 per cent.

"People hoped the peace would bring economic benefits and development but this has happened far too slowly and in some areas not at all," said Save the Children in South director Francisco Roque.

It is this type of frustration that led to last year's violence which caused 2,500 deaths and the displacement of 350,000 people, greater than the post election violence witnessed in Kenya in early 2008.

Mr Poole said that the US, UK and Norway who were the main backers of the peace talks have to come again before next year's referendum takes place.