The year 2010 is supposed to be the official make or mar year for Nigerian politicians in the run up to the next general and presidential elections, but it has gotten off to an uncertain, tense, cloudy and rumour-filled start.

Remember that early last year, when some ministers, some state governors and some PDP national officers began what was clearly a premature campaign for his second term, Yar'adua stepped in at the PDP mini convention and said campaigns for 2011 weren't appropriate until 2010. Well, 2010 is here, but the President's hospitalisation since November 2009 and the extremely secretive manner in which his family and the government have handled the matter of his ill-health have been such that we no longer expect a normal year of electioneering this time around. The fate of 2011 politics now depends to a very large extent on Yar'adua's personal fate.

The most substantive thing heard by Nigerians on this matter was last week's testimony that Vice President Goodluck Jonathan received a phone call from Yar'adua, however briefly. If so, then it signalled a substantial improvement in the president's health. Even though reports at the weekend by NEXT newspaper, in particular, said the phone call was a ruse, it seems unlikely that Jonathan would tell the Federal Executive Council that he spoke to Yar'adua, as Information Minister Dora Akunyili said he told them, when he had not done so.

Now, if Yar'adua survives this illness and returns to the country, one of several things must happen. Number one, he could come back, resume his duties and say nothing about resigning. If however Yar'adua maintains a schedule even less active than the one he maintained before he went to hospital, or even if he simply maintains a pace equal to that one, pressure is likely to mount for him to quit.

On the other hand, if he were to show some visible improvement, some people may actually push for him to run for a second term, though that is very unlikely to happen. It is much more likely, assuming his health somewhat improves, that Yar'adua will try to complete his term in office, then drop out of the 2011 race.

If Yar'adua were to quit office now, on his own volition or under pressure, the biggest question of the 2011 race will be largely settled, because Jonathan will step into the presidency now and most 2011 aspirants in the PDP will be silenced. Jonathan will then almost certainly get the PDP nomination and, the way things are, will almost certainly win the 2011 elections as well, but first things first.

Even if Yar'adua agrees to quit now, how he chooses to quit will affect the PDP and Nigeria greatly. The firmest way to quit is to say what the American President Richard Nixon said in 1974, "I shall resign from the presidency effective 12 noon tomorrow. Vice President Ford shall be sworn-in at that hour." On the other hand, if Yar'adua sends a murky, IBB-like "stepping aside" message, then it could probably ignite a noisy campaign by his supporters for him to stay on.

Now, if Yar'adua decides to complete his current term but drop out of the 2011 race, then PDP and the country will be in for a very difficult time. The way PDP works, Yar'adua should then be able to handpick a successor, much like Obasanjo single-handedly picked him in 2006. Yet, it won't be easy for him, because while many Northern politicians will put him under great pressure to pick a Northerner in supposed continuation of PDP's power shift formula, Yar'adua should also expect great pressure from other quarters to endorse Jonathan.

If he is unable to resolve this problem without wrecking the party, Yar'adua could play the ostrich and say, I will not do an Obasanjo, let the party go and choose. Such a scenario will unleash powerful forces within the PDP. Several governors who are just completing their second terms, notably Dr. Bukola Saraki and Alhaji Danjuma Goje, could be interested. Several men who finished their governorship tenure in 2007, notably Alhaji Ahmed Makarfi, Alhaji Abdullahi Adamu, Dr. Peter Odili and Chief James Ibori could be interested, as could some first term governors, perhaps Malam Isa Yuguda, Alhaji Sule Lamido or Dr. Mu'azu Babangida Aliyu. Then there are the non-gubernatorial hopefuls, the most powerful being General Ibrahim Babangida, but also General Aliyu Gusau and Alhaji Abubakar Rimi.

The smoothest path to 2011 for the PDP is if Yar'adua quits this year and Jonathan completes the term. Even then, some Northern politicians will try to push him out of the 2011 race but given the way PDP works, Jonathan should be able, despite his rather light political weight, to command the loyalty of the party national exco, governors and ministers and thereafter he cannot be defeated in PDP primaries.

Yet, Jonathan's rise to the presidency will entail a wholesale rezoning of the party offices, National Assembly leadership, and even some key Executive offices, such as SGF, Head of Service and the ones Yar'adua snatched for the North [GMD NNPC, Governor CBN and DG SSS], under the unstated premise that under Obasanjo, Southerners cornered them.

Now, how the presidential puzzle is settled will impact heavily on next year's gubernatorial races. Governors are the most potent political force in Nigeria after the president, but all the governors may not see eye-to-eye on this matter of 2011 jigsaw puzzles. First-term governors are deeply interested in stability, while second termers may not mind an opening in the presidency.

National Assembly members will also be making their own calculations. 2007 was a disastrous year for the Assembly, when more than 80% of its sitting members were flushed out, usually at party primary level. This experience weighs heavily today on the minds of Senate President David Mark and House Speaker Dimeji Bankole, who are already campaigning for automatic party tickets for the current members in 2011. A National Assembly member's political situation is tricky because while he usually has some clout with the Presidency, for electoral purposes, he is completely at the mercy of a state governor.

Yet another jigsaw piece this year is that ministers, advisers, ambassadors and other powerful Executive Branch officers will be making political calculations of their own. Ministers hold powerful and lucrative offices, more lucrative than National Assembly membership but politically, they are rather impotent because they must do the bidding of the President.

A minister's political priority is usually to remain as minister and, somewhere down the road, to become a governor, vice president or president. The only available formula for this, in Nigeria, is blind loyalty to the president. Politically, the Presidency usually takes ministers for granted. A minister becomes more relevant in the ruling party set up only when the party does not have the governor in his state. This time around, the Yar'adua ministers think they deserve some political regard towards 2011 because they resisted all public pressure to invoke Section 144 of the Constitution and declare the president unfit for office. What is not certain is whether Jonathan inwardly regarded that as an act worth rewarding.

All these pieces of the jigsaw puzzle must begin to fall into place very soon.