For the past one week, the worth of Nigeria has come up for debate among analysts, citizens and non-citizens alike - much as its much-battered image has further been plummeted after the Christmas Day alleged attempt by citizen Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, to blow up a Detroit-bound airliner and its aftermaths.

This fresh debate was preceded by a long-standing claim or myth, that one in every African is a Nigerian, thereby underlining the importance of the country on the continent and in international politics. That belief, analysts say, is strengthened by pioneering role the country played in the de-colonisation of Africa

But observers now say this status has come under serious scrutiny since penultimate week after the United States placed the country on the list of "14 countries of interest", a tacit way of dubbing it a breeding ground for terrorists in spite of the strong rebuke Abdulmutallab has received from home.

The debate was provoked by bewilderment at what most Nigerians call unfair profiling of the country. But analysts say the question of Nigeria dwindling in global importance is also glaring in the degrading treatment often meted to its citizens and dignity by other countries, without Abuja able to react appropriately or returning fire as diplomacy sometime dictates. This has led most analysts to conclude that the country has lost the power to tag an action an enemy act and invoke the principle of reciprocity, as often the case in international relations. For instance, debate has been rife about Nigeria's ability to place the United States on her own terror list, if any exists, or subject Americans coming in to similar humiliating treatments its citizens now go through en route the U.S.

In The Beginning

Penultimate Monday, America officially added Nigeria to a list of countries that sponsor terrorists, clearing the way for the "enhanced screening of all holders of the Nigerian passport," as security officials put it.

The measure will affect any American-bound air passenger travelling through "state sponsors of terrorism or other countries of interest" such as Pakistan, Yemen, and Nigeria, according to United States Transport Security Administration (TSA).

It is to ensure "effective aviation security beyond our borders."

The U.S. State Department had earlier designated only four countries as those that sponsor terror: Cuba, Sudan, Syria, and Iran.

But it has added Afghanistan, Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, and Yemen.

The White House said countries on the list are areas "where the administration has concerns, particularly about al-Qaeda affiliates."

An official disclosed that the State Department is heavily involved in compiling the list, along with the Department of Homeland Security and other intelligence agencies.

The directive gives pilots discretion to prevent passengers from keeping pillows and blankets on their laps during some international flights, and the option for pilots to limit movement in the cabin.

Airports are to increase "threat-based" screening of passengers who may be acting in a suspicious manner.

"The new directive includes long-term, sustainable security measures developed in consultation with law enforcement officials and our domestic and international partners," the TSA said in a statement posted on its website.

These are in response to the failed attempt by Abdulmutallab to bomb a jetliner on December 25 last year as it approached Detroit after a flight from Amsterdam.

Why Nigeria, An Ally?

Most Nigerian foreign affairs experts were jolted at the U.S. "unexpected" action, given the long-standing friendship the two countries enjoy and the overt goodwill Americans enjoy in the country. Many Nigerians have also argued that the action of an individual ought not to cast aspersion on the entire country of over 140 million people. They insist that if Britain, with its history of internal crisis and terrorism as evidenced in the operation of the IRA and the shoe bomber, Richard Reich, or Belgium or Spain with its ETA, do not get a place on the list, then Nigeria is less qualified to be there.

But a number of facts have since emerged, which explained why Washington took what most Nigerians call an extreme step. Former U.S. Ambassador to South Africa and Nigeria, Princeton Lyman, wrote in an article published in national dailies that Africa's supposed most powerful country is no longer relevant in world politics, evidenced in what he considered its mere reliance on past glory instead of contemporary achievements by which nations are weighed.

Other theories have been advanced for the action taken by the U.S., days before Lyman wrote his controversial article, and these include what diplomats say is the weakened relations between the two countries and the lack of high-wire diplomatic contacts between them.

They say that Nigeria has on various occasions turned down Washington's unofficial offers to send U.S. marines to help secure the vital, but volatile oil producing Niger Delta.

Another former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria, John Campbell, said "Nigeria cannot be a reliable ally if it is consumed by its own corruption and political machinations," adding it "is rapidly becoming more like Somalia - a failed state with no real government to cooperate with."

Todd Moss, Vice President and senior fellow at the Centre for Global Development in Washington DC, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs during the George Bush administration, highlighted this fact in a widely circulated article entitled "Where in the World is the Nigerian President?" posted on the web recently.

He wrote: "Amid all the media frenzy around the Nigerian underwear bomber and how America should have stopped him before he tried to blow up a passenger plane on Christmas Day, a critical piece to the counter-terrorism puzzle seems to have been missed: where in the world is the Nigerian President? Normally, after such a horrific incident, President Obama would be on the phone with his counterpart, discussing what went wrong and agreeing on ways to work better in the future to prevent such attacks. But this couldn't happen because Nigeria's President Umaru Yar'Adua left his country for medical treatment in Saudi Arabia on November 23rd and hasn't been seen or heard from since.

"The failed terrorist attack by Abdulmutallab on Northwest Flight 253 highlights that Nigeria's power void is dangerous for the U.S. as well. The foundation of a counter-terrorism strategy is to build cooperative partnerships with friendly nations. This means sharing information and helping to build security capacity in places like Yemen, Afghanistan, and Nigeria. But we cannot have a partnership if there is no one on the other end of the line."

To compound matters, Nigeria currently does not have a substantive ambassador to the U.S.

The manner of recall of the former Ambassador to the country, retired Brigadier-General Oluwole Rotimi, who made an ethnically offensive statement, was considered to be highly untidy.

His proposed replacement, Prof. Tunde Adeniran, was rejected on grounds that his son allegedly gang-raped three women in the U.S. city of Baltimore.

Adeniran, had already been screened and confirmed by the Senate before his credentials were thrown out.

That rejection was unprecedented in the country's diplomatic history and is thought to have further brought relations with the U.S. to a new low.

The new ambassador-designate, Professor Ade Adefuye, is yet to be screened by the Nigerian Senate.

A top diplomat, who sought anonymity stated that "the inclusion of Nigeria in the list of unfriendly countries is a climax or crescendo. It's been cumulative. It may not have happened if we had very good relations".

It was also gathered that Aso Rock, as an institution, has not engaged with the White House "as much as necessary".

President Yar'Adua has been absent from all United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York except in 2007 when he addressed the Assembly for the first time. Nigeria was represented by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Ojo Maduekwe in subsequent meetings.

Nigeria equally lacks a strong lobbying group in the U.S., which sources say might have been useful immediately after Abdulmutallab was arrested.

"The lobbying group would have swung into action immediately Abdulmutallab was arrested to sensitise the American authorities," the source said.

During the President Olusegun Obasanjo administration, Goodworks International, an American lobbying firm, was hired for Nigeria. But the contract was discontinued when Yar'Adua came into power.

It was also gathered that another company, Patton Boggs, was secured to do the same job. However, it is not certain if the group is active.

Another source argued that "international relations is a matter of positive engagement. Any damage done could have been averted by active engagement. Simply put, we have not been positively engaging the US."

Regardless, Aso Rock has expressed its anger at the action. It has also summoned the U.S. Ambassador to protest the list, backed by claims that Nigeria did take enough precaution to prevent the unfortunate incident - as evidenced in Mutallab's father reporting his son to the U.S. Embassy - and has since offered enough support since the foiled attack.

But the Nigerian Senate went a step further to criticise the list and warn the U.S. of diplomatic consequences, in case the decision is not reversed by the time it resumes from vacation. Washington reportedly responded by threatening visa bans for top Nigerian officials, prompting Senators to issue what appears to be an embarrassing volte face the day after.

U.S. State Department sources, was quoted as confirming that all existing visas to the Senators, senior government officials and their relatives were on the verge of being cancelled before Nigeria "opted out for a friendly option to resolve the impasse."

Sources said U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, called senior Nigerian officials on the administration's intentions after getting clearance from President Barack Obama.

"They obviously underestimated the resolve of the administration on the issue, but when it comes to protecting American lives, the president will take all measures necessary," a White House aide stated. Sources said Washington also threatened to seek the cooperation of European Union officials to also revoke the travel documents of targeted lawmakers and government officials if Nigeria had carried out its threat of diplomatic retaliation against American citizens.," a senior administration official stated.

Indications are that influential American Senators are urging the Obama administration to take a tougher position on Nigeria. Republican Senator, John McCain and Democrat Ross Feingold are said to be pushing for an ultimatum to the Nigerian government to fix noticeable security lapses at its exit and entry points or lose U.S. assistance programmes. The sanctions would also cover a ban on identified officials and their relatives from visiting the U.S.

But, Is Nigeria So Unimportant?

Diplomatic experts have engaged one another in heated debate on the place of Nigeria in present global order. A few, including local democracy agitators and organisations, think the so-called importance of Nigeria has been so over-bloated the country no longer deems it fit to address its internal challenges and continued waning in regional importance.

Lyman devoted more than a page article to dissecting the so-called strategic importance of the country. In obvious denigration of the country, Lyman titled it: 'Nigeria Becoming Irrelevant in the world."

He wrote: "I know all the arguments (about Nigeria's global importance): It is a major oil-producer, it is the most populous country in Africa, it has made major contributions to Africa in peace-keeping, and, of course, negatively if Nigeria were to fall apart, the ripple effects would be tremendous, etc. But, I wonder if all this emphasis on Nigeria's importance creates a tendency to inflate Nigeria's opinion of its own invulnerability.

"Among much of the elite today, I have the feeling that there is a belief that Nigeria is too big to fail, too important to be ignored, and that Nigerians can go on ignoring some of the most fundamental challenges they have, many of which we have talked about: disgraceful lack of infrastructure, the growing problems of unemployment, the failure to deal with the underlying problems in the Niger-Delta, the failure to consolidate democracy; and somehow, feel will remain important to everybody because of all those reasons that are strategically important.

He said the concept of one out of every African is a Nigerian could not be relevant without the population being productive. "What does it mean that one in five Africans is Nigeria? It does not mean anything to a Namibian or a South African. It is a kind of conceit. What makes it important is what is happening to the people of Nigeria. Are their talents being tapped? Are they becoming an economic force? Is all that potential being used? And the answer is "Not really".

"And oil. Yes, Nigeria is a major oil producer, but Brazil is now launching a 10-year programme that is going to make it one of the major oil producers in the world. And every other country in Africa is now beginning to produce oil.

"And Angola is rivalling Nigeria in oil production, and the United States has just discovered a huge gas reserve which is going to replace some of our dependence on imported energy.

"So if you look ahead ten years, is Nigeria really going to be that relevant as a major oil producer, or just another of the many oil producers while the world moves on to alternative sources of energy and other sources of supply?

"How influential is Nigeria? And what about its influence and contributions to the continent? As our representative from the parliament talked about, there is a great history of those contributions. But that is history.

"Is Nigeria really playing a major role today in the crisis in Niger on its border, or in Guinea, or in Darfur, or, after making many promises, any contributions to Somalia? The answer is no. Today Nigeria is not making a major impact on its region, or on the African Union or on the big problems of Africa.

"So the handwriting may already be on the wall, and that is a sad commentary. What it means is that Nigeria's most important strategic importance in the end could be that it has failed."

Not most Nigerian analysts agree with Lyman, and a number have written counter articles to challenge his views. One of them is Professor John Moyibi Amoda, an expert on diplomatic issues.

Amoda agrees Nigeria has a number of internal challenges to contend with and many wrongs to right, but insists that is not limited to her or any other third world nation often castigated by America.

"We can see (in Lyman article) a wish and a policy that Nigeria fails and a policy that Nigeria should be made to fail. Both the wish and policy can be determinative of Nigeria's prospect if it were a ward, a colony or a dependency," Amoda wrote in a counter article.

"Why can't we talk about Nigeria's greatness? Why can't we talk about what a great country Nigeria is and what it would take for Nigeria to be more important and greater? Why must we throw away the facts of the great things Nigeria has already done, which the Obama Presidency may wish to devalue, and begin right at the bottom as if today is January 1960, not January 2010?

"ECOMOG is a great achievement; at great sacrifice to the country in blood and dollar Nigeria did what the U.S., the UN and the EU could not do; Nigeria preserved the existence of Liberia as a society, what the UN cannot do in Somalia.

Nigeria is the lead country both in ECOWAS and in the AU. Nigeria produced the Force Commander in Darfur. The Naira is an ECOWAS currency. All these are facts that do not banish the fact that: 'Nigeria infrastructure is truly disgraceful and its unemployment problems are a national security risk? But Nigeria is not a "big for nothing country.' If it were so, why is the United States and the UN putting pressure on Nigeria to do another ECOMOG in Somalia? Under General Ibrahim Babangida, Nigeria brought North and South Sudan to a peacemaking table in Abuja. Can Lyman claim to be ignorant of this fact?

"The problem with Lyman's appreciation is precisely his ambivalence: he wishes Nigeria well on the one hand and wishes it dead on the other hand. He wishes Nigeria would rise to its potential on the one hand and on the other, he portrays Nigeria in beggarly term....

"The truth is that only Nigerians can determine whether to break apart or remain together; outsiders may have a vested interest in the matter but they cannot determine the outcome. What an American can do is to undertake a regime change invasion; it cannot without colonisation undertake a regime replacement intervention.

Amoda, who accused the U.S. of advancing its interests across the world in the guise of promoting democracy, said it was for this reason that it American troops are still in South Korea today. "America's interest in democracy and democratic government in the Middle East, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq are subordinate to its interest in the safety of the United State Hegemony in those countries," he added.

Most analysts have asked what African country has the largest troops in (UNAMID) in Sudan, and what nation is most feared in the 53-nation African Union. They have also pointed out that Nigeria not taking lead in Somalia or elsewhere stated by Lyman may be a deliberate policy to ensure that the U.S. does not overestimate its influence in decolonised Africa. They say the U.S. has been fingered in much of the crisis ravaging Africa, from Sudan to Somalia and Congo to other Central African region, and Nigeria, having Africa as the centrepiece of its foreign policies, may not be too comfortable helping the American cause, which may mean entrenching neocolonialism or imperialism in Africa. This position may be one reason Abuja has been against the U.S.-backed International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant against Sudan's President Omar Al-Bashir.

Some say Lyman's claim may also flow from the grudge Washington holds against Nigeria not hosting AFRICOM. If Nigeria was indeed irrelevant as he claims, analysts argue, how come the White House spent fortunes pleading with Abuja to host AFRICOM?

An Eye For Eye?

Despite the arguments and counter arguments about Nigeria's standing in the world, most citizens believe it would be counterproductive to engage Washington in diplomatic row. They instead caution Abuja to tread softly and seek peaceful means of resolving the impasse.

Abubakar Sulaiman, of the Institute for Peace, Leadership and Development Studies, in Abuja, said it was wrong for the U.S. to blacklist Nigeria, arguing that it was an over-reaction by the American government to take such a hard stand.

But he warned Nigerian government not to be emotional about it, but rather to make use of all diplomatic channels to resolve the misunderstanding.

His words: "I do not want to think on that line of severing relationship between the two countries because they have come a long way in their international relations. The issue is that the federal government must put their acts together and handle the issue with caution. I do not still think we should be contemplating severing relationships with the U.S. because we have come a long way.

Also, Registrar of the Nigeria Institute for Industrial Security, Montgomery Omohimi, said he was angry with the United States action going by what Nigeria has done in the African region and beyond.

He added: "Nigeria did it in Liberia, which is being controlled by the United States, they did it in Sierra Leone, which is controlled by Britain and lost many troops. So it is worrisome and an insult to blacklist Nigeria. It is funny that U.S. will use the action of a young chap who was not even trained in Nigeria to judge the country. U.S. has forgotten too soon that there was a period of time they gave four million green cards to Nigerians. How could they suddenly become a terror zone?

Omohimi however warned that the two countries must be guided by reason so as not to jeopardise the diplomatic ties they have built over the years as it would not serve the countries any good."

Another International relations expert who pleaded anonymity said it was wrong for America to blacklist Nigeria as what happened was not a sufficient reason for the action.

But the source warned Nigeria to be cautious and not to challenge the U.S. as it would be the greater loser. He said Nigeria was not Cuba with strong leadership as well as internal organisation.

"Nigeria is not a country like Cuba with strong internal organisation. Nigeria thinking of severing ties with the U.S. is an unthinkable act, an act impossible. Nigeria cannot survive U.S. sanction going by the type of leadership that we have," he argued.

Yet others argue that Washington would be shooting itself in the leg if it pushes its luck too far, citing the fast-changing global order that has seen China emerge as another power, which may cash in on the ruptured relationship to push forward its scramble for Africa.

"Don't forget the world is no longer the post-Soviet Union era where the U.S. enjoyed unchallenged position as sole superpower. That has changed, and mind you Nigeria can pull the string in Africa and get support in the Middle East," a top ranking diplomat in Aso Rock was quoted as saying.

But Prof. of Political Science at the University of Lagos, Lai Olurode, pointed out that Nigeria, rather than America, stands to lose if both nations part ways. As an academic, he expressed anxiety arising from the possibility of Nigeria's absence from the centre of world academic activities.

He said: "Nigeria stands to lose a lot if it severs diplomatic relationship with America. Since the collapse of the curtain wall in 1991 and the emergence of America as world's greatest power, that country has gradually become not only the centre of business and politics but also of education. America is where you have the highest concentration of students from across the world, and if you are not there you miss out on latest developments. It has the greatest research resources. What is now known as globalisation is actually Americanisation, and you can't be cut off from America and hope to be connected to the rest of the world. Moreover, the fact is well known that America is the highest buyer of Nigeria's oil, and it is difficult to fathom where Nigeria would be if America ceases to buy its oil. Other nations, especially in Europe, already have countries from which they buy oil, so we are dependent on America for the sale of our oil."

Nevertheless, National Chairman of Democratic Alternative (DA), Abayomi Ferreira, allayed fears that severing relationship with America could endanger Nigeria's interest. Ties with America, Ferreira insisted, had been to the advantage of America, adding that absence of any programmes of development in Nigeria had placed the country, over the years, at the mercy of Western economies.

He said the programmes, which Nigeria has been implementing in the past decades, were those suggested by Western nations, including America.

His words: "What have we benefited from America when relationship between the two countries has been to their advantage? America has been exploiting us. What evidence do we have to support any claim that they had promoted our interests? None. The country is in a thoroughly bad state because we have accepted to implement the programmes they foist on us. The real problem is that those who have been in power have never had programmes of development, and that is why the country has been dependent on America and other Western powers. I can understand why we have been so jittery over the fact that America may be angry with us. As I said, if there had been well thought-out programmes of development, we would not need America and the other Western nations. Nigeria ought to be able to forge ahead without Western capitalist economies.

"They would never support any relationship that does not serve their capitalist interests, and that precisely means that relationship with America had sustained their exploitation of Nigeria. This is why it is necessary for Nigerians to remove the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at the next opportunity and vote in a party like the Democratic Alternative (DA) that is capable of rescuing Nigeria from the clutches of Western capitalist economies. They have never meant well for us and are incapable of promoting any true programme of development in the country. The earlier we realise this, the better."

Indeed, it is clear that the last has not been heard on the current diplomatic rumble. Information has it that the U.S. is still planning some measures, using the Almutallab affair to get Nigeria put on its thinking cap, place its hands on the plough and begin to rebuild itself again. To what extent the country responds, remains to be seen.