Lagos — With the prolonged absence of President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua from the country as a result of his medical condition, different political groups have been strategising ahead of the 2011 general election, THISDAY can report today.

There is a growing consensus in the political circle that even if the President returns to the country, the possibility of seeking a second term in office is very slim, given his physical condition and the time he needs to fully recover.

This has fuelled a wave of alignments and re-alignments among Northern and Southern politicians across the country as they position themselves to fill what they see as an impending vacuum next year.

Key Northern politicians, THISDAY was told, who are planning for a likely scenario where Yar'Adua may not seek a second term, believe it should pave the way for the emergence of another Northerner as President who may or may not necessarily seek a second term in office as the North would have done its eight years by 2015 when another election will be due.

Southern politicians, on the other hand, are planning to present a formidable front with the hope of freeing the political space and defeating the zoning and power shift arrangements of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) once and for all.

THISDAY investigations revealed that about six groups are crystallising and are positioning themselves ahead of the general election.

The first group consists of PDP governors who want to continue to hold on to power and influence - as the case has been since the Olusegun Obasano era when governors held near control of the political space.

They have been holding a series of meetings and have reached an agreement that any successor to Yar'Adua must be a governor of Northern origin to complete the remaining four years in the spirit of power rotation.

Those who are said to be the leading contenders in this category are Alhaji Danjuma Goje (Gombe), Mallam Isa Yuguda (Bauchi), Alhaji Namadi Sambo (Kaduna) and Dr. Bukola Saraki (Kwara).

The governors want the PDP to hold its presidential convention latest by May 2010 so that a presidential candidate will emerge, thereby foreclosing the possibility of a Southerner flying the PDP flag in the election.

They are also in support of holding the general election in November this year as proposed in the constitution amendment currently being considered by lawmakers.

The governors control enormous political machinery, both in terms of finance and infrastructure, but, as an insider told the newspaper last night, "there are fears among them that if the National Assembly hastens the electoral reform process, their influence may wane as the electoral process may become more transparent and less vulnerable to manipulation and undue influence by the governors".

The second group is the Gen. Ibrahim Babangida/ Aliyu Mohammed Gusau axis of the PDP. Both of them are seen as elder statesmen who possess the ability to stabilise the polity in these "trying times".

Babangida, who ruled Nigeria as military president between 1985 and 1993, is seen as a front runner because of the widespread sympathy he has garnered from his recent bereavement, following the death of his wife, Maryam, and the goodwill it has produced.

Visitors to Babangida's Hiltop residence in Minna, Niger State, consist of the biggest political and business elite from far and wide, all showing sympathy and solidarity to the former president.

With Babangida clocking 70 this year and Gusau 69, it is believed that either of them would do only one term and give way to the Vice-President, who will be of Southern origin, to succeed him. This, it is calculated, will not disrupt the two-term North-South power rotation arrangement.

However, this option is also facing some criticism, as age may not deter either of them from going for a second term, judging by the experience of people like President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe who, at 84, is still holding on to power, like many other African leaders who do not see age as an impediment to staying in power.

The third group, THISDAY learnt, is the National Democratic Movement (NDM), which is spearheaded by former head of state, General Muhammadu Buhari, and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar.

In this group are former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, former chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, former governor of Bauchi State, Alhaji Ahmed Muazu - all of whom are on self-exile - and former governor of Sokoto State, Alhaji Attahiru Bafarawa.

They have been holding a series of meetings and strategy sessions in London and Dubai in recent days.

In the calculation of this group, what it takes to defeat the ruling party is a credible and strong opposition that can mobilise the North in numbers as well as work in conjunction with strong groups in the South, with the Action Congress (AC) the most viable ally.

THISDAY also gathered that the fourth group is the Asiwaju Bola Tinubu faction of AC who, with their allies, are on the rise in the South-west.

The AC believes that with the South-east and South-south heavily polarised, the party stands a good chance of snatching the Vice-President in the event of an alliance in 2011.

The Obasanjo group within PDP, which installed Yar'Adua as President and Dr. Goodluck Jonathan as Vice-President, is the fifth of the political camps strategising ahead of the general election. It is currently searching for a Vice-President for Jonathan, in the event that Yar'Adua does not complete his tenure for whatever reason.

It is the belief of the Obasanjo group that Jonathan should be allowed to act as President and fill any vacuum created by the President.

This group and friends of Jonathan believe that the VP may reap from his and his wife's poetic names - which are Goodluck and Patience. They see that as a good omen, even if on a lighter note.

The sixth group in the race consists of the core supporters of Yar'Adua, especially from Katsina State. The game plan of the group is still very unclear but its aim is to keep the President alive by all means necessary so that they do not lose hold of power. They are still expecting the President to go for a second term if he overcomes his sickness.

In this group are the Minister of Agriculture and Water Resources, Dr. Abba Sayyadi Ruma, Minister of FCT, Alhaji Adamu Aliero, Chief Economic Adviser to the President, Dr. Tanimu Yakubu, businessman and Yar'Adua associate, Alhaji Dahiru Manga, and Katsina Governor Ibrahim Shema.

They are proposing either Aliero or Ruma for presidency if Yar'Adua is unable to go for a second term.