The year 2009 was a very remarkable year for Sierra Leone. As the dust of Ernest Koroma's assumption of office was just settling by mid-2008, the global financial crunch struck leaving series of unanticipated issues of national interest at stake.
By late 2008, the universal effect of the depression was deeply felt in the country such that it cut across virtually every facet. As a donor-driven State that is still grappling with the visible reality of rebuilding its infrastructures destroyed in the course of the decade-long civil war, Sierra Leone faces a crucial test which requires a solid head-on confrontation to quell.
The year 2009 was started in high expectations in Sierra Leone's economic circles, especially after President Ernest Bai Koroma had in the previous year clearly reiterated his earlier promise that he intends to run the nation like a business. Despite this statement from the President of running Sierra Leone as a business, little has seemed to develop in the business and economic prospects of Sierra Leone in 2009. With rising cost of basic goods and commodities and a weak Leones, Sierra Leoneans are surely praying for a change in 2010 because the signs indicated by a largely import based economy, coupled with rising global prices and a weak national currency have all meant an increase hardship for the majority of Sierra Leoneans most of whom still live below the poverty line.
According to Economy Watch, Sierra Leone still remains in 2009 an extremely poor country (on a Per-Capita GDP basis) with tremendous inequality in distribution of income. Its annual yearly report stated; "While Sierra Leone possesses substantial mineral, agricultural, agrarian, fisheries and farming, and fishery resources, its physical and social infrastructure and facilities are not well developed, and major social disorders perpetuate to hamper economic progress. The fate of its economy depends upon the maintenance of domestic peace and the perpetuated receipt of substantial aid from overseas, which is essential to offset the severe trade (imports and exports) imbalance and supplement government earnings."
The year 2009 has also shown that a country beset by several problems from transportation, lack of adequate infrastructure and the menace of armed robbery all faced huge impediments to the country's economic prospect. Majority of the foreign investors and even Sierra Leoneans from the Diaspora still have a shocking thought about the eyesore of the Lungi International Airport, which sometimes welcome first time visitors and potential investors with overwhelming darkness and the tricky problems of crossing over to Freetown. Armed robbery reigned supreme in 2009 and foreigners and business people were among the main target of the robbers. Thank God Bumbuna is almost up and running, electricity still posed a huge problem to business people in 2009, especially the small scale enterprises most of which cannot afford the daily cost of fuel and generator maintenance cost. The power was clearly flowing by the end of 2009, but the nation's outdated electric grid is struggling to supply and distribute the power from Bumbuna.
Despite moving up the rankings of the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation Doing Business 2009 Report to 156 among 181 countries, the challenges here are still tough for both local and international business people.
According to the African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2009 data, Sierra Leone posted relatively strong growth in 2008 with GDP increasing by an estimated 5.4 per cent despite high oil prices then. GDP rose by 6.3 per cent in 2009 and projected to rise by 5.5 per cent in 2010. The AEO commends Sierra Leone for this performance given our dependence on food and oil imports in a time of global price increases.
That is the main reason why many have called on the government to up its agricultural budget and commitment for the upcoming years after the government would have reduced its current heavy commitments to its electricity program. Agriculture accounted for 58 per cent of GDP in 2007 and it grew by about 5 per cent in 2008 and 2009 (down from a 14 per cent increase in 2007 led by crops). Sierra Leone remains a net importer of food despite agriculture's large share of GDP and employment. The sector has been dominated traditionally by subsistence agriculture and it suffers from a number of constraints: production and marketing are entirely privately handled, poor infrastructure (especially roads) hinders access to markets, extension services are weak impeding the delivery of training and information to farmers, irrigation and financing are limited, and storage facilities are poor. In addition, weak institutional capacity, including access to information, undermines policy formulation and co-ordination of stakeholder activity. Critics also contend that the rural land tenure system, which precludes free-holding, inhibits investment as land is either communally or family owned.
In 2009 the government in coordination with WFP and other stakeholders made efforts to address these problems and to boost agricultural productivity by promoting the use of equipment and inputs, extending irrigation, providing post-harvest facilities (storage facilities, drying floors, rice mills and threshers) as well as animal feed mills and abattoirs, setting up community banks and financial services associations and improving marketing infrastructure by constructing and rehabilitating feeder roads and community markets. Despite these moves hundreds of tractors and other equipment are yet to be distributed to deserving farmers and the WFP has warned that Sierra Leone might not be able to cope with the maintenance and upkeep of these equipments.
Sierra Leone also has substantial marine resources with a 560 kilometre-long shoreline. Fishing is undertaken at the industrial and artisanal levels. However, widespread poaching of Sierra Leone's territorial waters was a major problem in 2009 and in what was seen here as a real ridicule to justice, questions were raised on how a magistrate in September 2009 fined a foreign fishing vessel and 26 crew members caught fishing illegally in Sierra Leone waters, the grand sum of $155,000 - which is less than one twentieth of the mandatory fines for fish poachers proscribed by the 1994 Fisheries (Management and Development) Decree. Marine Resources Ministry permanent secretary Paul Sandi was outraged at the small fine and told reporters that such lax enforcement of the Act would only encourage poachers and destroy a potentially saucy part of income for government.
Services accounted for 34 per cent of GDP in 2007. Having contracted by 6 per cent in 2007, services rebounded in 2008 with 5 per cent growth. The financial sector continues to expand in 2009, with the number of commercial banks increasing to 14 in 2009. Though questions have been raised about the strength and efficiency of these commercial banks, one positive thing they have done is to help recruit many of the nation's unemployed graduate.
Tourism is at present very limited but it is growing and shows good potential. The government has a critical role to play in planning and promoting the sector, particularly in improving the country's external image and attractiveness as a tourist destination. More fundamental constraints include poor infrastructure, especially electricity, and the difficulties of accessing the country from the Lungi Airport, which can be accessed only by ferry or by helicopter. Despite some of these actions, the nation is still short of replicating a huge pro-tourism campaign as done by countries such as Ghana and The Gambia in the sub-region. More clearly needs to be done in international promotion and restoration and maintenance of tourist attractions throughout the country.
Industry growth remains constant, slowly increasing. But most of the nation's industries are more of assembly structures in which most of the contents are imported and then packed or assembled here. Manufacturing accounted for just 2 per cent of the GDP in 2008 and was expected to be in the same region for 2009, reflecting the country's low level of industrial development. The sector has not witnessed much growth in 2009 and that means continued reliance on foreign imported goods which is a bad thing for the economy.
Sierra Leone's mineral resources include diamonds, rutile (titanium ore), bauxite, iron ore and gold. The sector's importance to Sierra Leone is understated in national accounts however, as mining accounts for over 90 per cent of export revenues. It is also the second largest employer providing employment to an estimated 300, 000 people. Semi-industrial production of Kimberlite diamonds began in 2003. Before then, diamond production was largely undertaken on an artisanal basis with its attendant environmental and physical risks. A large proportion of artisanal miners still live in poverty in 2009 hampered by problems of access to finance and markets. Establishing secure property rights for these miners and their families is also a huge challenge to address, which the government is establishing a mining cadastre to provide information on land rights and use. But many workers in 2009 still complain just like in the past that the government and Ministry of Labour are not doing much to augment their conditions of service in the difficult working environment they found themselves.
In order to ensure tight monitoring, the government continues to participate in the Kimberly Diamond Certification Process, which aims to combat trade in conflict diamonds. It also participates in the Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative, which seeks to improve the management of mineral resources by publishing information on government revenues from natural resources. Changes to the structure of the Ministry of Mines are planned and the government intends to consolidate regulations.
The mining sector in Sierra Leone still faces several challenges ranging from the legal and regulatory framework. There was a particularly positive news for the iron ore sector as mineral exploration company African Minerals announced in July that it expected $2,6-billion in capital expenditure at its flag-ship iron-ore project at Tonkolili, and forecast production to start in 2013.
The capital expenditure forecast included costs for the mine and the building of a railroad and a deep-water port are all good news as the local economy is set to benefit.
Taxation, which is also a growing source of revenue for the government, hit a serious setback when majority of the nation's business people set up a united front against the government much heralded Goods and Services Tax (GST). They claimed it will lead to an increase in prices of goods and services. One of the business people who criticised the GST, Mr. Ibrahim Sesay warned at a joint seminar with NRA on 15th July, 09 that if the president fails to properly review the GST and avoids what he referred to as the Ghanaian experience, many business people will run away from Sierra Leone to neighbouring countries. The NRA still argues that importers will pay less taxation under the GST, whatever the case will be - the year 2009 can be seen as the year in which the government was forced to backtrack on a taxation system it was about to institute.
Despite the onset of the global recession towards the end of 2008, government statistics and AEO projection believed the real GDP increased 5.4 per cent in 2008, with 6.3 per cent and 5.5 per cent growth anticipated for 2009 and 2010, respectively. In 2008, growth was due primarily to an 8.2 per cent increase in private consumption, made possible by the increases in agricultural production in 2007 and 2008 and this trend is predicted to continue in 2009 and 2010. Gross capital formation is forecast to increase faster than consumption in 2009 and 2010, more than doubling its 2008 growth rate to 12.1 per cent in 2009, and expanding even further by 14.3 per cent in 2010. In particular, public investment is expected to triple in 2009 to rise by 15.2 per cent, with private investment predicted to be slightly lower at 11.1 per cent. As such, gross capital formation is anticipated to contribute 1.1 per cent to real GDP growth in 2009 and 1.3 per cent of growth in 2010, though this remains small relative to the effect of total consumption on growth. On the other hand, the trade deficit widened in 2008 as exports fell 2.6 per cent and imports rose 10.4 per cent, exerting a 3.4 point negative effect on GDP. The global recession is expected to put downward pressure on exports, remittances, and foreign aid, causing the trade deficit to widen further.
The most positive news for the country's economy last year was the announcement of oil discovery in Sierra Leone, although there could be much to come. The Sierra Leone government has already begun to benefit from the discovery with some of the bidding companies already paying up for dimensional surveys (3 D surveys). Controversy has already began to shoot up with critics accusing Anadarko Petroleum of not helping the Sierra Leone economy by going all the way to Senegal to purchase goods and services, which should have been easily done in Sierra Leone. Recent media reports also exposed rift between Anadarko and Oranto Petroleum, a Nigerian company about the share of the carved out area the oil deposits are thought to be located. More importantly however, there was also accusation from the Nigerian company that Anadarko had already begun drilling oil and giving out statistics in the absence of a single Sierra Leonean. They warned that it was a dangerous signal because the staffs on board can give any data or statistics. Although Mr. Raymond Saidu Kamara is said to have joined the oil station, there are still serious questions to be asked and issues to be clarified as 2010 emerges and the majority of Sierra Leoneans will soon start asking where are the oil revenues?
The challenges going forward will be to consolidate growth and to address the enduring risk factors for conflict such as widespread unemployment and poverty. Reining in inflation, which was a massive concern in 2009 is also important, the impacts are far-reaching affecting the majority of Sierra Leoneans who are low income earners. The year 2009 ended up with rising basic good prices simply because the dollar keeps going up and importers are having a field day increasing prices and citing the rise of the dollar as the their reasons for doing so. The year 2009 can be seen as a year of disappointment for the majority of consumers who woke up every morning going to their retailers only to be confronted by a hike in prize.
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