Accra — Ghana's oil find has brought in its wake, growing expectations among the old and the young, politicians and even the clergy. For many of the youth who are currently being encouraged under various government initiatives to take to farming, fishing and other seemingly unattractive vocations, the country's oil and gas development promises an escape out of their jobless trap. Ghanaians, especially residents of the Western Region earnestly await their share of the impending wealth-generating potential of the "black gold". The oil fever was even stoked during the 31st December watch-night services in various places to usher in 2010 when church leaders offered prayers for a successful commercial production which is anticipated to start in the last quarter of this year.

These expectations are founded on the perception that petrodollars create powerful economic incentives for economic growth, social advancement and poverty reduction.

Ghana however, is in no way insulated from the nagging challenges of oil exploitation, such as undesirable social and environmental impacts, the volatile nature of projected revenues, the commodity's tendency to corrupt, the 'Dutch disease', oil's potential to generate social conflict etc.

Of particular worry, is the growing expectation among some Ghanaians that with the onset of oil production they will be kissing good-bye to their poverty status. If the local people, youth and chiefs of the coastal communities in Western Region are expecting a drastic transformation in their lives, then I shudder to say, they will be disappointed. First, it does not look like the convention established in the mining sector, where a share of mineral royalty is disbursed to host communities will be applied here. The NDC administration seems to agree with the erstwhile NPP government's position that because the oil is offshore, no group of people can claim preferential treatment in the sharing of benefits from its exploitation. Secondly, if government does not take steps to add value to the commodity by building more refineries, but resorts to exporting all or almost all the crude, then the expectation that jobs would be created in the upstream sector would be largely unmet. Perhaps, that expectation can be accommodated in the down stream gas sector only.

It is important however, to note that, conflict over resource rents are best addressed when distribution of the accrued wealth bridges the wide gap between the poor and the rich on one hand and underdeveloped and developed regions on the other.

Diversity of expectations

Considering the fact that oil revenues do not necessarily translate into benefits and enhanced livelihoods in the short to medium term, it is imperative for the country to contain the upsurge of these expectations that have even triggered unscrupulous sale of lands by some chiefs. Again, there are reported formations of youth groups with their motives clearly unknown. It is also reported that rents for accommodation have been increasing alarmingly as a result of speculations around investor influx and future increase in demand for land and landed property.

The expectations associated with the oil find naturally may result in forced out-migration and in-migration with its attendant population pressures and environmental toll. Again, the hype of the potential benefits from the emerging oil and gas sector to the communities, in the media will have to be toned down if expectations are to be effectively managed. Government's pronouncements and those of the oil companies' will also have to be moderated, as they account to a large extent, for the unrealistic expectations among communities bordering Ghana's oil find.

Local Content Consultations and Public Education

It rests on the government, non-governmental organizations and civil society groups to educate all or majority of the people on the realities of the oil and gas industry. The education would serve to open the eyes of the people on what really to expect from the sector so as not to act on the dictates of ignorance. Public consultations on the draft Local Content Provisions in the national oil and gas policy document, provides a perfect opportunity to begin such education. Clearly, to enable people take advantage of the Local Content Provisions, they must understand the industry, how it operates, and the opportunities it offers for local participation.

Stephen Yeboah, Department of Planning, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi-Ghana.