An estimated 3.8 million Kenyans will require emergency food aid this month amid a relentless rally in prices of key cereals.

The latest outlook report by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) shows that the 2009 drought continues to impact on the country's food situation.

"Harvesting of 2009 long-rains season maize crop, which accounts for 80 per cent of total annual production, is about to be completed and production is officially forecast at 1.84 million tonnes, about 28 per cent below average," the report said blaming the situation on erratic and low cumulative rainfall levels estimated at between 10 to 50 per cent of normal.

The failed rains mainly affected maize yields in Eastern, Coast and parts of Rift Valley province.

"This has been the third consecutive season with inadequate rainfall. Dry weather conditions have also been severe in north western and eastern pastoral regions, deteriorating pasture availability and livestock body conditions with consequent increase of mortality rates."

But in what is likely to draw further concern among households, the survey by FAO revealed a relentless increase in local food prices despite recent improved weather conditions over several growing areas.

"Food prices remain at above average levels, reportedly as a consequence of inflated transportation costs for imported maize, due to congestion in Mombasa port," FAO said.

In Nairobi, according to estimates, the January 2010 wholesale price of maize was Sh30,600 ($408) per tonne, compared to Sh23,025 ($307) per tonne 12 months earlier and to Sh16,725 ($223) per tonne realised 24 months earlier.

"The persistent high prices have restricted food access for low-income market dependent households, especially in urban areas where wages have remained comparatively static," the report said.

FAO said although harvesting of 2009 short-rains season crops is expected to start in the coming few weeks, the negative effects of the lengthy dry spells witnessed earlier last year are likely to be felt.

"Precipitations started early in October and resumed after a prolonged dry spell in November that affected south-eastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas and southern and north-western pastoral areas. In these areas, about 20-30 per cent of crop needed to be replanted, likely causing a delay in the harvesting operations," it said.

It further pointed out that during the second half of December 2009, heavy rainfall caused massive flooding in low lying areas of Northern, Central and Western provinces, washing away crops - mainly sorghum and maize, and livestock.

It is reported that some 30,000 people have been affected, especially in the Turkana and West Pokot districts in the North Rift region.

"Overall, some 3.8 million people are estimated to require food assistance through February 2010, when the arrival on market of 2009 main maize crop production is expected to slightly improve the food security situation. The number of food insecure people is likely to increase from April/May when food stocks associated with a poor crop production will be depleted," FAO said.

The projected deficit means that Kenya would have to make substantive imports ahead of April when the existing stocks dry out.

Luckily for Kenya, several targeted import countries such as South Africa, Malawi and Zambia witnessed good harvests in 2009 and may come in handy in offering supplies.

In South Africa, the maize crop prospects remain favourable thanks to normal to above normal rains that were received in the main producing areas from November until mid-January 2010.

The officially estimated area under maize for January 2010 indicates an increase of 8.2 per cent from the previous year--a larger increase than had been anticipated by a previous farmers planting intention report issued in October 2009.

The largest increase at 10.9 per cent is expected in the area under white maize while that for yellow maize is seen to rise by only 3.9 per cent.

Analysts however warned that all might not be rosy in the South African cereals markets because of fluctuations in prices.

"In line with the trend of prices in international markets, wholesale prices of white maize and wheat in South Africa have declined from their peaks in mid 2008 and are below their year earlier levels. In the last three months there has been an increase in maize prices, mainly reflecting normal seasonal trends in the second half of the marketing season and a weaker rand," analysts at FAO said.

In Malawi production prospects also remain favourable after a record maize harvest in 2009 when the country posted 3.7 million tonnes of grain-- a 61 per cent growth above the previous five-year average.

The country is expected to ride on the gains of favourable weather conditions experienced in October- November 2009 that boosted land preparation, planting and germination of the main season cereal crops.

"Conditions of main season 2010 maize crop good overall, larger planting of summer cereal crops (mostly maize) were completed by end December under normal conditions in all areas, except southern parts of the country where rainfall was below average and erratic. Overall, crop conditions are mostly favourable so far," FAO said in its outlook for Zambia.