Lagos — When President Umaru Yar'Adua's government promised to raise the country's power generation to 6000 mega watts (MW), by December 31, 2009, many saw it as a step in the right direction.

This is because it is an incontrovertible fact that sufficient and reliable power supply remains the catalyst for economic development. But while some Nigerians looked forward to seeing the realization of the promise, many did not take the Federal Government (FG) seriously. The latter group perhaps felt there was no need to feel disappointed because it now seems in the character of this government not to keep promises.

For example, the FG earlier promised of declaring a state of emergency in the power sector was not kept. The same government has not been able to fulfill the promise of fixing the refineries, a development that has led to the perennial scarcity of petroleum products in the country.

Many stakeholders dismissed the promise of generating 600MW by December 31, 2009, with the wave of the hand because according to them there was nothing on ground to suggest that the FG meant business. Today the situation has vindicated the many stakeholders who said that the promise of the FG was not backed with adequate back up resources and political will.

President Yar'Adua told Nigerians at a point that a certain cabal had held the power sector hostage. Up till now the issue of the cabal has not been addressed, nor how to extricate this all-important sector from their grip.

Infact, an attempt by the House Committee, of the Federal House of Representatives, headed by Mr. Ndudi Elumelu, was cut short by allegations of corruption and bias leveled against members of the committee and some senior civil servants in the power ministry.

The 6000MW generation target was actually a short-term policy measure to quickly bailout the country from years of lingering darkness. The FG medium term target is to generate 10, 000MW by the end of 2010 and to steadily increase the pool by a sustainable percentage each year, thereafter.

Unfortunately, December 31, 2009 has come and gone with the country not being capable of generating the targeted 6000MW. At moment only 3,700MW of power was attained, according to the Minister of Power, Dr. Lanre Babalola, with the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) being able to supply and distribute less than that amount on account of inadequate infrastructure.

However while many continue to bemoan the FG and indeed power ministry for its inability to achieve the target, experts have argued that it portends grave danger to the economy. They reason that the development poses serious challenge to the economy as more businesses would have to close shops or relocate to neighboring countries with stable power supply thereby increasing the unemployment tally. Add to the above, is the high cost of production, rising inflation and growing mass poverty.

But in defence of the FG's inability to achieve the target, Minister of state for petroleum, Mr. Odein Ajumogobia, said that the gas pipeline vandalism in Niger Delta was responsible. Many think he is standing truth on the head.

The Minister who said recently in Lagos that the FG would not give up on the target also insisted that it was ambitious but achievable.

Ajumogobia noted that government should talk more to the people to explain the true situation of things.

"The 6000MW for example-people have criticized the government for not meeting the target. It was an ambitious target but realizable. What we did not contend with was that on the eve of the deadline would have pipeline vandalism and so we couldn't get gas to power the stations.

But we have a lot of gas. We have done a lot of work in the ministry of petroleum to get gas in the eastern parts. We are working on these issues; some of these issues border on security".

Ajumogobia noted that when a target is not achieved, the solution is not to give up, adding that the FG would continue to try until it is realized.

The statement made by the chief Economic Adviser to the President, Alhaji Tanimu Yakubu at the 15th summit of t he Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) in Abuja at the middle of December 2009, that the 6000MW power target was not realizable contradicted the claim by Ajumogobia, who said that it was the validalisation of the gas pipeline at the eve of the deadline that thwarted the efforts of the FG.

Yakubu "We may not achieve 100 per cent of the target. We have been able to achieve 5, 200MW so far" he said. He however did not give any reason why the 6000MW would not be met. Stakeholders say that Yakubu's claim that by mid December 2009 5, 200 MW has been achieved was not be the true position of things. He may have added up the entire installed capacities of the ailing plants, most of which had been cannibalized to repair others. It is indeed curious that Yakubu could make such bogus claims when Babalola, the minister in-charge of the sector noted that only 3,700MW of power generated by the end of December 31, 2009.

Both Yakubu and National Planning Minister, Dr. Shamsudeen Usman, who also attended the summit, and also insisted that the FG met 5,200MW must be getting the records from elsewhere, perhaps a source with little regard for integrity.

According to Babalola, the current actual power generation is about 3, 700 MW.

Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, had apologized to Nigerians over the failure of the government to meet the target.

He said "At the inception of this administration, we promised to drastically improve access to electric power by the end of 2009. This is because it is a basic necessity in technologically-driven world. Our target, which was modest, was set at generating 6,000 MW of electricity by the year end. While I am happy today to report that we have achieved some sustainable measure of success, I regret to mention that for a number of unforeseen and unavoidable reasons, this target could not be met. Millions of Nigerians are therefore still without power. For this, I render on behalf of government very sincere regrets".

The Vice President said that FG will not relent on its efforts in providing sufficient power supply in the country. Corroborating the vice president, Commerce and Industry Minister, Chief Achike Udenwa, said that in no distant future, the power generation target would be met, since supply of gas to power turbines would be uninterrupted due to the restoration of peace in the area. He noted that it was the destructive activities of militants in the area that made it impossible for the FG not to meet the December 31, 2009, 6000MW electricity generation target.

However, the minister of power disclosed recently that an investment of $10 billion must be made over the next 10 years in the power sector if Nigeria must attain the quantity and quality of power needed for development in the country.

He said government's target of about 35, 000MW of electricity generation in the next 10 years would be feasible with "consistent and sustained investment over the years", adding that there was a strong correlation between power generation and economic growth.

But some analysts have said that a major problem facing the power sector is corruption. They argue that given the amount of fund that has been injected into the sector there should have been a better result than what we have at the moment.

For instance Sunday Champion was told that in order to realize the promise of the 6,000MW by December 31, 2009 the FG released some $1.6 billion to International Oil Companies (IOCs) to ensure that they provide the needed gas delivery infrastructure to enable the power stations to stream their plants.

Apart from this some other funds have been sunk in the sector including these released to the Nigeria Integrated Power Projects (NIPPS) through its steering committee headed by the Vice President, Jonathan and the PHCN to ensure that all contractual obligations concerning delivery, accessories, transmission and distribution were fulfilled.

Also over $12 billion was said to have been sunk into the same sector, during the administration of Chief Olusegun Obsanjo.

As part of the strategy to tackle the power generation challenge in the country, Babalola who was speaking penultimate Friday during a one-day seminar to discuss issues and challenges in the power sector in Nigeria, said government was also looking to diversify sources of power generation to include solar, coal, biomas and wind.

"If you are going to build 2, 000MW of power, for instance, you need so much money for the generation, the transmission and the distribution. Power generation is a highly capital intensive project due to the quantum of investment required, and the long gestation period.

"But we need to bear all these in mind; it is not by dreaming about power that it will happen, we need to plan ahead. We also need to know how we can attract that kind of money to the Federal Government"..

The Minister further disclosed that government recently approved a contract for the development of a wind farm in the north, to be located in Kastina state, and is expected to generate wind energy in a couple of years.

Babalola also said that Oji River Power Plant which was being powered by coal has been in use since 30 years ago. He said "is it the time the country looked inwards and exploit some of these resources such as coal which Nigeria is blessed with it will certainly take some years to get these off the ground, but we believe that we must start early; we must start now".

"Giving the high level of commitment of the FG, as well as the unflinching support, I am confident that Nigerians will enjoy a substantial improvement in power supply by the end of the year.

"In the same vein, the National Integrated Power Project (NIPP) steering committee, and the entire sector are working assiduously hard to ensure the completion of the NIPP projects so as to meet 10, 000MW by 2011".

Babalola also disclosed that plans were in t he offing to exploit coal to generate power where there are large coal deposits, while various dams especially in the north are to be harnessed for small hydro plants.

Part of the FG's strategy to boost distribution and transmission of power, according to Babalola would be revolving around rehabilitation and reinforcement of existing facilities, because without adequate reinforcement and expansion in the network whatever achievement that is recorded will not make the desired impact.

Sunday Champion was told that with recent improvement in actual power generation standing at 3, 7000MW, FG has intensified efforts to ensure that various projects in the transmission and distribution sub-sectors of the industry are vigorously pursued to boost electricity delivery to the final consumers. To this end over 1, 106 projects have been embarked upon to enhance delivery of power generated to consumers.

The Minister said that out of the all the projects, 428 have been completed while 678 are now at various stages of completion, and that these projects will support about 2,740MW or 2,349MW in the national grid in addition to the existing distribution capacity.

He explained that the task before the administrators of the power sector was enormous but that it is surmountable bearing in mind that the progress recorded in the sector so far is clear demonstration of the present administration's absolute commitment and resolution to the issue of power development in the country.

"We are tackling the problem in the sector by improving our capacity which is currently over 5, 6000MW and we are also reinforcing both transmission and distribution networks so that we can deliver this power to Nigerians. We have the capacity and with availability of gas more electricity will be delivered" he said.

Babalola noted that activities in the sector is a continuous process as projects takes years from initial concept to design, engineering and construction.

He stressed that with effective monitoring of t he activities of contractors handling the NIPP projects there is no doubt that before long Nigerians will begin to see more relief in power supply, pointing out that the head of distribution companies have been given autonomy to take vital decision in addressing the challenges in their respective zones.

The Minister also listed a number of ongoing rehabilitation projects aimed at improving power supply in 2010. The projects include 130MW Afam V, 200 MW in Delta, 200MW Afam VI, 90MW from Jebba hydropower and 440MW from unit 6 in Lagos thermal station in Egbin.

Further he stated that as part of diversification strategies to shore up operations in the power sector, preliminary work has been concluded on the proposed 215MW dual fired-low pour fuel/gas power plant in Kaduna, 3000MW goal fired power plant, 250MW crude/gas fired power plant, 700MW hydro-power plant in Zungeru and 50 MW small and mini hydro-power plants. The projects are expected to deliver power in the next 3-4 years.

According to him, FG has also engaged a consultant to undertake a detailed review of the feasibility study done on the proposed 2, 6000MW Manbilla hydro power station, just as the contract for the tender document in respect of Zungeru power station has since been awarded.

In order to engage the private sector effectively in power business, the Minister said Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) and Gas Supply Purchase Agreement (GSPA) as well as Gas Transportation Agreement (GTA) have been drafted in line with international standards to facilitate private sector involvement in the industry.

Meanwhile, there are indications that the inability of the petroleum ministry officials, with those of Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), the Nigerian Gas Company (NGC) and some other allied establishments to carry out their respective functions were behind the failure of the targeted 6,000mw attainment.

Speaking at the defence of her ministry's budget recently before the National Assembly, Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Mrs. Elizabeth Emuren accused the NNPC of acting independently and behaving arrogantly as if they have nobody to report to. She had claimed that both the Petroleum Trust Development Fund (PTDF) and the NNPC do not regard the ministry as their supervisors and hardly attend any meeting called by it.

According to her, the failure of the country to generate the targeted 6000mw may not be unconnected with the failure of the NNPC to take care of the budgetary provisions for the procurement of pipelines for gas supply to the various Independent Power Plants (IPPs) located in parts of the country.

Chairman House Committee on Gas, Hon Igo Aguma, who presided over the proceedings had wondered why, the NNPC and the NGC could bungle the efforts of the Federal Government to generate 6000mw of power last year and as a result dismissed some of the proposed budgetary allocations as unnecessary.

Many stakeholders have mentioned corruption as the main reason behind failure to achieve the targeted 6000mw. Even in his address the vice president made allusion to the fact that corruption may have hampered the realization of the FG's power target.

Jonathan "All these will require more fiscal discipline, and greater commitment to budgetary implementation. We must also do more to ensure project completion and more visible action in cutting down on waste, especially in the public sector.

We must continue to pursue relentlessly, the national effort to combat corruption in all its manifestations".

Mr. Joe Ajero, General Secretary, National Union of Electricity Employees (NUEE) told Sunday Champion that apart from corruption, that is the key reason another reason why the target was not met was that the FG's ill-preparedness to generate 6000MW. "I told you before December 31, 2009 that the country would not make the target. Today I and many who spoke out that the FG was politicizing with the promise have been vindicated.

Ajero said that it would be impossible for the 6000MW to be achieved, when there was no adequate plan on ground and when some of the obsolete equipments were not replaced, instead money made available for their replacement were pocketed by politicians and government officials.

"The government should go back to the drawing board and come up with a realistic plan for achieving the 6000MW or more in 2010. The problem of shortage of gas should be addressed once and for all. It is surprising that the NNPC that promised supply of enough gas for the power stations could not fulfil it promise".

According to Victor Fagbote, a pubic Affairs commentator, The Yar'Adua administration should do everything within its power to tackle the electricity problem that has become a pain in the neck of our social economic development.

Fagbote also believes that for this administration to do any thing meaningful in the power sector corruption should be tackled headlong and that the cartel that import generating sets into the country must be smashed "The generator cartel in the country should be smashed and corruption especially in the NNPC, other institutions and companies in power sector must be tackled headlong. But I tell you the failure of the 6000MW promise is a very big minus for this administration" he said.

Many stakeholders have said that it is regrettable the Nigeria could not generate 6,000MW when there is an identified need for about 17,000 MW of electricity. This they said is unacceptable when South Africa, with a population of about 47 million people, make over 45, 000MW available to its people, while Nigeria remains the highest importers of generators in the world.