Johannesburg — JACOB Zuma is no longer just a politician. He is an issue, a lightning rod, a test for this or that -- the judiciary, the economy, race relations, morality and the rule of law.

While Americans are still defined by where they stand on Roe v Wade (the Supreme Court's 1973 ruling on abortion), we in SA are divided by JG Zuma.

But only a fool would attempt to predict with certainty that Zuma is yesterday's man despite his lashing in the media over his latest scandal in which he fathered a baby out of wedlock, says Centre for Policy Studies analyst Aubrey Matshiqi.

Who can forget his spectacular return to mainstream politics after his political obituary had already been written when he was charged with rape in 2006?

But this does not mean that the events of the past few weeks have had no political effect.

Punters, friends and foes all concur that Zuma is politically vulnerable. Even his aides and those in the inner circles of the ruling elite have expressed deep concern over Zuma's messy private life.

The African National Congress's (ANC's) public acknowledgement that the party had taken "strain" over reports involving his personal life is significant. It suggests that the ANC, despite its large majority at the polls, is far from immune to public opinion on matters relating to its leader.

Matshiqi says it is important to remember the "inauspicious" manner in which Zuma ascended to power as it sheds light on the delicate balance of power in the ruling party. A breakdown of votes at the party's 2007 Polokwane conference suggests that about 60% of the delegates cast their ballots in favour of Zuma. The remaining 40% threw their lot in with former president Thabo Mbeki . But even among Zuma's supporters there were the sceptics and opportunists who realised they needed to get behind the Zuma juggernaut when it became apparent the leadership battle was a one-horse race.

"We must always go back and remember ... there were many that were sceptical about his abilities ... even though they knew that he alone could dislodge Thabo Mbeki at Polokwane.

"So the latest development does create opportunities for realignment in the ANC which means we cannot preclude the possibility of a new anti-Zuma coalition emerging," Matshiqi says.

It is Zuma's stature in the fractious ANC-led alliance that will determine if he can survive not only what remains of his term in office as SA's president, but also whether the ANC will re-elect or dump him at its conference in 2012 when the party faithful gather to elect a new crop of leaders.

Matshiqi says Zuma's indiscretions divides an already fracturing coalition divided crudely between nationalists and communists and that his immediate challenge would be to consolidate the forces that supported him before Polokwane.

The cleansing of Zuma's image in the public domain is the first step, but he adds a caveat. "This is doable only to the extent there are no more revelations lurking in dark corners. If there are, the ANC is one apology away from another leadership crisis," he says.

While the election of an individual is never about one person but rather about interests, especially in a ruling party with a tight hand on lucrative state tenders, ambitious ANC leaders who see themselves as pretenders to the throne will no doubt want to exploit Zuma's weakness. Already the whispering campaign has begun about whether the ANC can afford to have a gaffe-prone leader with a parlous private life in the face of upcoming local elections and a tough 2014 poll.

While several power brokers went public several months ago saying they would back a second term for Zuma, even ardent supporters now admit that Zuma's position is no longer unassailable.

"Yes he is vulnerable. Two years (the ANC's elective conference is in 2012) is a long time in politics, much can happen, " a supporter of a second term for Zuma says.

"In the ANC these things (scandals) are not what decide voting at conference."

But theirs is an acknowledgement that Zuma in many ways is holding his fate in his own hands.

"There are people out there waiting for him to make a mistake and he should take it as a lesson, clearly he is vulnerable in the ANC," a senior alliance leader says.

But we should not read what is said about Zuma too literally. Given that he is the incumbent in the party and the state, potential rivals will be hesitant to expose themselves to being part of an emerging anti- Zuma coalition because the balance of forces favours him at the moment. Those who declare their opposition early might get their hands chopped off.

Moreover, given the ANC has acknowledged that sleaze and character assassinations have become weapons that some in the party use to dislodge opponents, anyone wanting to challenge Zuma in 2012 must be certain there are no skeletons in their own cupboard.