As we know it today, this imagined country - to borrow a certain Benedict Anderson's clever idea on nation-ness - known as Uganda, has roots in violence.
Some may know about the externally imposed religious wars of the 1880s, which tested KabakaMwanga's leadership abilities. That should not be surprising because colonialism was inherently violent, racist and authoritarian. What is somewhat surprising is the staying power of those same vices, with racism becoming ethnicity, in Uganda. 'Independence' did not take those bad things away.
Then there is the particular violence that characterises elections. Which is where Dr Kizza Besigye, the president of Uganda's largest political party, FDC, pops up in the national picture. As he has said before, and it appears as he will say again in the future, the FDC top honcho told the public in Masindi two weeks ago: "In 1980, the Democratic Party, not Museveni's UPM, was rigged of victory; we went to the bush because the vote was rigged. There is a possible return to the bush in case the 2011 elections are also rigged... It might not be Besigye or FDC to go to war, but some Ugandans might opt to use force to dislodge the regime out of power. I have been rigged out twice but I have not opted for war, but other Ugandans shall opt for it." Thank you Observer for the news.
Now, war is a most terrible activity. People kill, maim, rape, and destroy property. You must want power so bad to kill, maim, and rape in its pursuit. There may well be war depending on how the 2011elections are handled. If the electoral process becomes a shamble, Dr Besigye may be proved right.
The not-so intriguing thing is why he does not come out to say he would lead a second Bush War. He wants to flag a war while at the same time suggesting that it will not be him or his FDC party leading such a war.
He deliberately leaves that to nameless and faceless Ugandans - some/other Ugandans. This is a case of being too clever by half. Many in the FDC leadership are opposed to war and it appears Dr Besigye is not amongst them, which is why he must promote his idea - obviously meant to scare incorrigible NRM away from rigging - in a roundabout way. Goes to show that even reformist and progressive-minded politicians do smoke strange stuff every morning.
In any event, Dr Besigye's "some" or "other Ugandans" who "might opt" or "shall opt" (words matter, don't they) for war may want to consider some issues. First, as Mamdani would say, 1981 is not 2011. That is a 30-year gap, the span of an entire generation. The general sensibilities and passions of Ugandans about how much to fight over elections, therefore, may have changed toward opposition to war.
Second, there has been war in Uganda almost the entire period from 1978 to 2006. Surely, even trigger-happy Ugandans may get some fatigue out of all that armed violence and may want some quiet rest.
Third, war requires money and contacts and diplomatic work. Usually, populist politicians talk of relying on support from the peasants in the classic case of the intelligentsia allying with the peasants/masses (as NRM's one-time national political commissar, Dr Besigye is at home with this stuff).
But even the NRM, with its holly alliance of the intelligentsia and the peasants, needed elites in Kampala and Nairobi and elsewhere to raise money and to do diplomatic work. You therefore need the elite as well. Ugandan elites today, however, appear to be very much in a hurry to make a quick shilling, having lost out during those bad days of the '70s and '80s when they came of age.
They may have no appetite to risk their businesses and mansions and the education of their children at Greenhill to support a new war just because some politician was rigged out in an election.
Fourth, Uganda does not have many bushes anymore in which "freedom fighters" engaged in a "protracted people's war" can hide, short of finding rear bases in a neighbouring country. We have degraded the wetlands and the forests. The Uganda Environment Management Authority's sensitivity atlas has all the evidence.
Anyhow, for all those seeking glory in war, good luck. Else, simply decide to settle political quarrels politically, with the war option off the table. But again Dr Besigye is a veteran; he must know a thing or two or three about war and the thing named Uganda.
Mr Tabaire is a media trainer and consultant with the African Centre for Media Excellence

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