Peter Obi, the incumbent governor of Anambra State and APGA candidate, has been declared winner of the just concluded gubernatorial election in the State, with Chris Ngige of the AC coming second and Professor Soludo of the PDP coming a distant third. Andy Uba of the Labour Party came fourth, Nicholas Ukachukwu of HDP came fifth and Mrs. Uche Ekwunife of the PPA was sixth.
Though the election was relatively peaceful, the fact still remains that the election was not free and fair for the simple reason that the voters' register was muddled up such that many eligible voters could not find their names on the register. In most polling units, page one of the voters' registers was repeated. Funny names like that of Beko Kuti, Gani Fawehinmi and Nelson Mandela were found in the register while the names of people like Dr. Ekwueme were missing. Ekwueme went to the polling unit with his own voters' register, the one used in 2007 elections, which contained his name but his name was not on the register that INEC brought. He was only allowed to vote on personal recognition. Voters' turnout was low, as only 300,000 of the 1.8million registered voters voted. Security was tight and the police reportedly did a fairly good job of maintaining law and order. But can the police force afford to deploy 23,000 of its men to every state in 2011?
Professor Soludo was the only person in his family who voted as names of other members of his family were not in the register. Same goes for Peter Obi and Ngige. So the issue is not that if PDP loses the election, it is then free and fair. No. The result turned out the way it did because the major candidates, Andy Uba, Chris Ngige and Mrs. Uche Ekwunife, were all in PDP before and they knew some dark secrets of election rigging by the PDP; so they were able to block Soludo, who is a new comer, from taking advantage of that. The scenario, according to allegations against Iwu before the election, was such that there was too much pressure on him that he decided to be neutral though he tried through the register to swing it for a candidate of his choice but it didn't work. Rigging on the field was difficult and figures could not be smuggled in as was allegedly done in Ekiti. So as the Anambra electorate learnt their lessons from the Ekiti re-run, prospective voters from other States have also learnt from Anambra election of 2010 to prepare them for the 2011 elections. Peter Obi was grossly underestimated by other contestants at their own peril, so he was able to spring surprises. If Peter Obi's men engaged in any electoral malpractices, it was clinically done.
The only advantage for the Nigerian electorate in the Anambra election is that if the lessons learnt are put to good use, this can be a starting-point for a free and fair election in the country. The key word is vigilance and mandate protection. Anambra voters were shown on television refusing to leave polling stations after voting, insisting they wanted to witness the counting. Those who couldn't vote protested vehemently but refused to leave the polling units. Above all, Maurice Iwu must be removed for a more credible, controversy-free and trustworthy Nigerian to correct the nonsense Iwu called voters' register. Since the possibility of a total electoral reform before the 2011 election is remote, we can still have a fairly credible election if Iwu is removed.
The result also shows that Andy Uba never won in 2007 as we were made to believe because he ought to have enjoyed sympathy vote as against his very poor performance on Saturday's election. It also shows that Obi actually won in 2007 as confirmed by last Saturday's result. What it portends for the political calculus of Nigeria is that we are going back to the regional bloc of power negotiation with regional-based parties. With the East consolidating with APGA and PPA, the West consolidating with AC in Lagos, Edo and LP in Ondo with Ekiti and Osun still rumbling (and if the two States eventually go to the AC) the foundation for regional politics is being laid. It is only parts of the South South and some parts of the North that would likely remain for the PDP. A large part of the North would have consolidated with ANPP if the party is not degenerating as a result of bad leadership. So the PDP would have been stranded. In all of this, the hold of the PDP on the mentioned regions is waning and it may be forced to become a northern party. Though the PDP still has showings in the regions mentioned, its hold may be drastically reduced before the 2011 elections. The PDP might be the biggest loser or it might create alliances and that is better for Nigeria. If this happens, ideology may take a firm root as the regional parties consolidate.
The winner is the Anambra people as the result may have temporarily laid to rest the contentious issue of imposition and godfatherism, where certain individuals turned the State into their personal fiefdom. While taking cognizance of the inadequacies in the conduct of the election and the court judgment declaring INEC as presently constituted incompetent to conduct any election, it was relatively peaceful. No limbs were amputated; nobody was shot happened during the gubernatorial re-run in Ekiti State. There was little or no report of beating, harassment and chasing away of journalists, election monitors and observers as was the case during the Ekiti rerun. There was no reported incident of chasing away voters by shooting into the air. In Anambra, election took place in 21 local governments and result was announced in less than 24 hours, while in Ekiti, election took place in 10 wards but result was not announced until 11 days after and it was done in such a tense atmosphere that did not allow anybody to sign the result. In Anambra, the result was read in a relaxed atmosphere by the Returning Officer, but in Ekiti it was read by the State Resident Electoral Commissioner sandwiched between an AIG and Director General of the SSS in a militarized environment amidst shouts of ole! ole! (thief, thief) by those who felt cheated and shortchanged. Generally, Anambra result is a statement by Nigerians to the PDP that it would not be business as usual!
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