Lagos — 2011 election in Yobe State is likely to be determined by two forces thrown up after the gubernatorial primary of the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP)in 2007.

Next year's election is by the corner and politicians in Yobe are strategising on how to secure the mandate of the people. Political forces are aligning and re-aligning, old foes are becoming friends, while associates are becoming foes, all in a bid to actualize their aspirations.

But it is not in doubt that the late Senator Mamman Ali group, now headed by his successor, Governor Ibrahim Gaidam, and Senator Usman Albishir faction would determine what the trend would be in 2011.

The events leading to the governorship primaries of the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) about four years ago are still very fresh. Since Senator Mamman Ali staged a walk-out from the ANPP governorship primaries, the party has been battling to restore harmony and that may affect its fortunes in the next election.

Though Albishir won the primaries, allegation of financial impropriety was leveled against him by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and ANPP's national leadership later gave the ticket to Ali. But this was done at the detriment of the party's unity as ANPP in the state has never remained the same.

Since the primaries, it had been from one courtroom to the other as Albishir struggle to overturn the decision. And until his death, Ali remained his political enemy while their enmity has been passed on to Gaidam, who now heads Ali's political group.

There is no gain saying that the politics of the state, (within the two major parties -ANPP and the Peoples Democratic Party,PDP), is substantially centered around Albishir.

Immediately after Ali lost to Albishir, who was backed by the then Governor, Alhaji Bukar Abba Ibrahim, at the primaries, the face of the politics of the state changed and it became, "how to keep Albishir politically relevant or irrelevant" as the case may be.

Though not occupying any political office since May 2007, Albishir is still believed to be controlling a large followership in ANPP and various actions had been targeted at minimising his influence. One of such actions was the revalidation exercise for party members in the state sometimes last year.

This exercise, according to some political watchers, was aimed at deregistering some of his supporters within the party and it was learnt that some of these people saw the handwriting on the wall and did not make themselves available for registration or revalidation.

The implication is that as it stands, they cannot be said to be bonafide members of ANPP in Yobe. Even the status of Albishir within the ANPP is unknown because the effort to deregister him had been on for quite sometime and at a particular point, he was expelled by members of the party from his local government, before his expulsion was later quashed.

Before the primaries and shortly after, Albishir was firmly in control of the party structure and that accounted for his victory. But for Ali who later emerged as governor to have a firm grip of the party, the leadership at the state level had to be sacrificed. That strategy cut short the tenure of Alhaji Lawan Goroma-led executive and was replaced by Albishir's kinsman, Alhaji Sani Inuwa Nguru, who is still in office.

Albishir was also probed by Ali' government and indicted for supplying farmers in the state bad tractors which caused them to have bad harvest.

But as the next election moves closer, the revalidation exercise for ANPP members may have started changing the face of politics in the state and this is largely responsible for the endorsement of Gaidam to run for office in 2011 without any dissenting voice. Many members of Albishir's group are still believed to be seeking where to contest the next election as it has become obvious that ANPP's platform may not be available for them. There are even speculations that eleven out of the twenty-four members of the State Assembly believed to be close to Albishir are planning to move to PDP.

Already, a member of the House of Representatives representing Fune/Fika federal constituency, Hon. Baba

Gishiwari, has moved to PDP. But different reaction is trailing his movement. The state chairman of ANPP claimed that the legislator was deregistered from the party by his people for poor representation. He told journalists that "the federal legislator who was elected on the platform of ANPP in 2007 was refused registration in the recently concluded membership revalidation exercise by party supporters in his constituency."

He went further to state that "the electorate in the constituency had on several occasions complained about Gishiwari's absence from his constituency and inability to represent their interests in the National Assembly".

Nguru argued further that Gishiwari was locked out of ANPP and, couldn't have defected from ANPP because he lost his membership during the revalidation exercise. Alhaji Lawan Shettima, special adviser to Yobe governor on Political Affairs also corroborated the chairman on the lawmaker's defection.

But the Chairman of PDP in Yobe, Abbagana Tata, at the ceremony where the lawmaker was received into the party, said "the legislator saw reason with his people and followed their advice thereby dumping the ANPP for PDP."

Tata who promised that "the PDP in Yobe will accord everyone equal opportunity to contribute to the desired change in the state after 10 years of ANPP's maladministration in Yobe," claimed that many people who supported the ruling party in the last 10 years were disappointed with ANPP's performance and are yearning for change and improvement in their lives. "It is going to be a political hurricane in Yobe where politicians who have been tested for this long but failed will be swept away by change", he said.

Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Alhaji Jibril Magari, at a press briefing after the meeting of the bigwigs of the PDP in the state late last year, which was attended by officials from the 17 local governments, the State Working Committee and zonal officials, said PDP had thoroughly reviewed its strategies and had also taken stock of its progress in the state. He said the party had taken further steps to consolidate its gains and was ready to produce the next governor.

Maigari revealed that the party had finally tackled its internal wranglings while leaders of various political parties, especially the ANPP were being wooed into the PDP. He pointed out that the DPP senatorial candidate in the 2007 elections in the state, Alhaji Hassan K. Jawi, and all chairmen of the party in the local government areas have joined PDP. Another ANPP stalwart in Bade, Alhaji Saleh Kacha, has also joined the party with his followers, he disclosed.

The minister noted that there was no going back in the efforts to take over power in the state since the people of the state are tired of the Gaidam-led ANPP government.

He also said the Elder Committee of the party in the state that was moribund had been revamped and that consultations were on with the Albishir and his group with a view to bringing them to the party. He expressed strong hope that Albishir would joined PDP.

It was also gathered that the Gaidam's group, aware of the threat of the Albishir's group, are not leaving anything to chances. They are planning to either incorporate them into ANPP or muzzle them out.

The strategy, it was learnt, had been perfected and may be effective as prominent members in the Albishir's group would be approached individually for elective or appointive positions after the conclusion of the court case instituted by Albishir to reclaim what he called "my mandate."

As the state awaits the conclusion of the case, analysts believe the two groups - Gaidam and Albishir - will undoubtedly determine the outcome of the 2011 election.