Food prices are going to keep rising. With a little bit of foresight and investment, you can be in a position to profit. "I want to say one word to you. Just one word: plastics." This is the career advice dispensed to Dustin Hoffman in 1967's The Graduate. But if the movie had taken place in contemporary Uganda, instead of 1960s California, Mr Maguire would have offered a different "one word": food.
Food prices in Uganda have been buoyant the past year and show no signs of coming back to earth. Dr. Chris Ndatira Mukiza, director of Macroeconomics at Uganda Bureau of Statistics (Ubos) announced last week that food prices continue to increase faster than inflation. Food prices shot up 27.5 per cent in January, outpacing the core inflation rate (which excludes food, fuel, electricity and metered water) which dropped to 5.4 per cent from 7.4 per cent in December. That is good news for food producers since it means the prices of their outputs are increasing faster than the costs of their inputs--resulting in higher profits.
Food prices have been supported by exports caused by the drought in eastern Kenya. But even if the climate improves, exports are unlikely to decline, as result of a secular increase in Kenya's demand caused by rising incomes and population growth.
Now that Ugandan exporters enjoy tariff-free access to the Kenyan market, profits will only continue to increase. But even without free trade, Uganda food producers are still competitive with their counterparts elsewhere in the region. In Arua District, the local government is building a large trading centre, hoping to attract Southern Sudanese traders and make is easier for Ugandan food producers to serve the Sudanese market. Strong demand from Southern Sudan and the DR Congo have many farmers switching from traditional cash crops such as tea and coffee, towards food crops. Beans and maize exports alone earned over $35 million in 2009 for Ugandan farmers.
So how can you cash in?
Presumably you have a full time job and don't have time to become a farmer. You also may be worried that you can't afford to invest your money in a venture that may fail due to an unexpected crash in prices or bad weather.
But the venture doesn't have to be risky or expensive. Many people have land lying idle, either in Kampala or upcountry. The easiest way to generate income from fields lying fallow is planting sugar cane. Though farmers complain about the low prices sugar cane processors pay for raw cane, the fact remains that sugar cane can be grown with limited inputs and yields an exceptional return.
You can plant at an initial cost of about Shs130,000 per acre, you can plant sugar cane ultimately worth almost Shs700,000 per acre. You do not need to be a professional farmer to earn this kind of exceptional return: and it beats leaving your land idle. Strong demand from Sudan has sent livestock exports soaring over the previous year.
Though most livestock represents an excellent investment for 2010, several farmers contacted by Smart Money said they predicted poultry would be an especially strong performer in 2010.
Effective poultry production requires very little land and a minimal amount of capital input. 100 broiler chicks can be sustained for a month with just 150kgs of feed. And as tastes in Uganda change, demand for chicken will rise, as will prices. Invest in food--you will feed the region and feed yourself.

Comments Post a comment