On March 30, 1981 when John Hinckley shot US President Ronald Reagan [in order, he later said, to attract the attention of actress Jodie Foster], a small drama played out in the White House over presidential succession.

Defence Secretary Caspar Weinberger and other Administration big-wigs were assembling in the Situation Room awaiting the return of Vice President George H.W. Bush, who was in Texas. Weinberger did not notice that his colleague, Secretary of State General Alexander Haig, had slipped out of the room. Minutes later, Weinberger glanced at the television set, saw Haig speaking on it and asked, "What's that old picture of Al doing on telly?"

Turned out that it wasn't an old picture at all but a live one. That was when Haig stunned veteran White House reporters and constitutional lawyers alike by saying, "I am in control here."

The American Presidential Succession Act of 1947 provides a long order of succession to the Presidency so that, even in catastrophic situations, the country will still have a president. The succession line includes the Vice President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, President Pro-Tempore of the Senate, then Cabinet level secretaries in the order in which their Departments were created [making the Secretary of State the most senior, since his department was the first to be created in 1789]. In declaring himself to be in charge, Haig leap-frogged over three offices, causing a world-wide scandal in those days. Let us today remind Messrs David Mark and 'Dimeji Bankole that Nigeria needs a Presidential Succession Act.

Several years after the Haig episode, in 1986, the French Republic was gripped in a struggle for power when the opposition Neo-Gaullist party swept the parliamentary polls of that year and Socialist President Francois Mitterrand found himself in a messy "cohabitation" with his arch-rival, Prime Minister Jacques Chirac.

The French government became a two-headed hydra, tugging in different directions on most issues. The coach of the French national team at that year's football World Cup in Mexico dramatised the situation after his team won an important victory by saying he received congratulatory messages from both Mitterrand and Chirac. He said, "While the President congratulated us on our victory, the Prime Minister wished us success in our next match."

A Newsweek magazine French columnist wrote an article at the time titled "Who is in charge here?" It was a play on Al Haig's famous gaffe, but it is fitting to ask in Nigeria these days, "who is in charge here?"

Tuesday last week's unanimous resolution by both Houses of the National Assembly to recognise Vice President Goodluck Jonathan as Acting President on the strength of President Umaru Yar'adua's BBC interview a month ago has reduced tension in this country. It was a surprise solution to the political stalemate that lasted for nearly 80 days, when a President undergoing medical treatment abroad refused to transmit a letter of medical vacation to the Assembly so that Jonathan can act.

Yet, the National Assembly's resolution, and Jonathan's acceptance of it, was an action of dubious legality, when you remember that the Supreme Court severally said nothing should be added to the Constitution in the course of interpreting it. Remember that in 2007, the Supreme Court quashed then President Obasanjo's attempt to declare Vice President Atiku Abubakar's seat vacant because he became the presidential candidate of another political party, AC. The court said the Constitution listed four ways by which the VP could lose his seat, namely death, resignation, incapacitation or impeachment, and that no other situation can be added to those four.

Now, since the Constitution spelt out in detail how the VP can become acting President, that is when the President transmits a letter to the National Assembly, then it is doubtful if any other situation can legally stand. But who will contest this matter in court? Not many people around have the locus standi to contest it. Those who probably have it, such as the Attorney General, Secretary to the Government or military service chiefs, will almost certainly not contest it.

In other words, a quasi-legal solution has been found to an essentially political problem. Political, because Yar'adua [or at least the few people who have access to him] refused to transmit a letter and clearly didn't want Jonathan to assume his presidential powers.

Even though there is no evidence that Dr. Jonathan lobbied anyone to resolve matters this way, he swiftly accepted the Assembly's resolution and even made a television broadcast to herald it. That could cause political trouble one day. Ideally, Jonathan should have sought the Attorney General's opinion as to whether the Assembly's resolution was constitutional. Instead, he swiftly removed the AG and banished him to the Special Duties Office. The flipside of it was, most Nigerians agreed that Michael Aondoaaka deserved the sack.

As the week wore on, Jonathan consolidated his acting rulership by sitting on Yar'adua's desolate chair at the Federal Executive Council [FEC] meeting and by swearing-in Federal permanent secretaries who were appointed last year but could not be sworn-in due to Yar'adua's absence.

This whole arrangement is however pregnant with political danger. What if Yar'adua, or someone claiming to be acting for him, interferes with Jonathan's rule? A phone call from Jeddah to any minister or other government bigwig conveying a "presidential order" will be enough to cause real confusion, especially if it conflicts with another order given by Jonathan. Legally, Yar'adua has no right to interfere, but this is politics, not law. We can now see that those constitution writers who envisaged a willing transmission of a vacation letter to enable someone become acting President really knew what they were doing.

Now, even though last week's arrangement has eased political tension in the country, it is only a temporary solution. For how long can Jonathan continue to act? There are many big ticket items on the President's plate right now, including the power problem, Niger Delta amnesty, electoral reform and oil sector deregulation, not to mention political preparations for next year's elections. No long-term planning is possible as long as the President is only acting, with Yar'adua's shadow looming in the background.

It will not be long before the clamour begins for a more permanent solution to this problem. The National Assembly may cohabit with an acting President for a few weeks, after which, if Yar'adua does not return, then it will probably ask him to resign or force the FEC to initiate the process of declaring him medically incapacitated. Given the stubbornness with which Yar'adua refused to transmit a simple vacation letter, I personally do not see him ever transmitting a resignation letter.

Maybe, just maybe, Jonathan and the National Assembly leaders as well as the governors who backed them up have credible information that Yar'adua may never be well enough to return to his duty post. That may explain the unlikely courage recently exhibited by Mrs Dora Akunyili, the governors, the National Assembly leaders, and Jonathan himself. For, if Yar'adua were to suddenly arrive at the Nnamdi Azikiwe Airport and walk with a shuffle into the VIP lounge, all the big men in this city will dive into an air raid shelter.