Daily Trust (Abuja)

Nigeria: Why Good Luck May Elude Jonathan

opinion

"It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link in the chain of destiny can be handled at a time.- Winston Churchill

If the elite filmmakers in the world know the first thing on the linkage of providence with the compelling story line, they would be swarming like bees on Abuja at this moment. They will be cutting deals with minders of Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, on how to bring the story of his life to the big screen.

Plucked from relative obscurity to play bit part in the intricate script the most sadistic political monster of our times - Olusegun Obasanjo - destiny has ensured that Jonathan now sits in the director's chair as the elaborate drama of deceit and seamless power plots approaches a dénouement. How the final acts unravel is now entirely up to the acting President.

Jonathan has been entrusted with the leadership of Nigeria at a precarious crossroads in our political evolution. The controversial manner of his emergence, notwithstanding, ordinarily, he could choose to obey the first and original law of power, which almost all potentates did for more than a millennium, by opting to consolidate his power base. It was what motivated Obasanjo to have such a very high turnover in the leadership of the NASS, Defence/security establishment, the PDP, as well as other parties such as the rival ANPP, by proxy.

That could explain the speed with which Jonathan handed the disgraced Justice Minister, Michael Aondoaaka, his just deserts by demoting him to the inconsequential Special Duties Ministry. He could earn even more accolades by dispatching the other clown at INEC, Maurice Iwu, that is, to oblivion. But consolidation of his power base should hardly be the priority of the acting President at this material time, especially given the controversial manner of his elevation. For the same reasons, I hope that the reported moves to change the service chiefs carried by the The Sun last weekend, are untrue.

Jonathan must avoid moves capable of raising suspicions on his motives. In these uncertain times, Nigerians crave for a hero, or another Mandela, if they exist on these shores. The demand improvement in the quality of leadership above the pedestrian level we have experienced in recent times. While the Madiba's shoes may be too big for Jonathan to fill, the expectation is that in the little time on his hands, he can at least set the foundation for a better tomorrow.

What Jonathan has going for him, and may equally prove to be his Achilles heel, however, concerns the awesome powers inherent in the Nigerian presidency. A Nigerian President, even in acting capacity, is more powerful than that of the United States of America, for the following reasons.

In America, the President is perpetually kept on a tight leash. He must defer to Congress at all times, and operate strictly within the confines of the constitution enforced by the Supreme Court, or face instant impeachment. Here, the pathetic weaknesses and impotence of our democratic institutions, and structures of government, means the President can get away with just about anything, including murder.

Therefore, unless God touches Jonathan's heart, the urge to become another Emperor, like Obasanjo, is quite compelling. He could choose to shape the destiny of the nation in his own image in much the same manner Obasanjo did to our collective cost for eight wasteful years from 1999 to 2007. But that is not all.

Ethnic, and religious cleavages, along with a debilitating culture of sycophancy, which, in our peculiar case, easily passes for the 'Fifth Estate of the Realm' -after the Executive, Legislative, Judiciary and the Media - combine to produce despots that always pursue their own agenda, very distinct from what they were sworn into office to achieve.

Already, several solidarity averts have appeared in major newspapers eulogising the acting President for his appointment. In the next few weeks and months, an endless stream of delegations on solidarity visits will also attempt to make the Aso Rock Villa a temporary Mecca. Jonathan must summon the courage to request them to spare him the trouble. The tasks before him are daunting enough, and pandering to the whims of serial sycophants is not one of them.

Nigerians want the long delayed electoral reforms to sail through, along with the cleansing of INEC, to restore sanity and confidence in the system ahead of the next general elections. For his luck to hold, Jonathan must act, and think like a modern statesman. He must resist becoming a hostage of the present, or even the past, no matter what the pressure from his kinsmen on the situation in the Niger Delta. He must be just to them and the nation as well.

In this age of globalization, a fragmented Nigeria stands absolutely no chance of survival. Jonathan must recognize that the steady emphasis on alternative sources of cleaner energy in the West means the over-dependence on hydro-carbons will end sooner, rather than later. The status-quo essentially puts a time frame on the longevity of oil, as the sole bargaining chip of the Niger Delta.

Jonathan must realise in the little time he has in the saddle, that the entire nation is now his constituency. To earn our respect, he cannot afford be regarded as a stooge of Obasanjo. It was nothing that the former President did not accompany the eminent elders that paid two visits to Jonathan in the past fortnight. Even among his peers, it seems that Obasanjo is now regarded as expired currency.

Jonathan can draw useful lessons from how lowly Obasanjo has fallen in public esteem. What should be of primary importance for him is how to steady the ship of state, to ensure that the titanic, in which, most Nigerians are presently reluctant passengers, does not sink in the manner the Americans predicted years ago. Anything beyond that will be pushing his luck too far.

Boko Haram massacre: This outrage cannot stand!

I have seen footages of brutal killings of Nazi SS death squads during the Second World War. When the first Rambo movie hit the big screen, I saw the premiere as a student in New Jersey, along with the sequels as well. But none of these compared to the extra-judicial killings of Boko Haram suspects by the Nigerian Police broadcast by the Al-Jazeera television network last Tuesday.

The Rambo series were just movies, and pure fiction. And while the lead actor, Sylvester Stallone took few prisoners, the villains he dispatched with deadly efficiency, were the aggressors, who were also armed to the teeth. The Nazis, on the other hand, systematically starved their victims to death. When they were no longer useful on labour camps, or Josef Mengele's laboratories, gas chambers exterminated them. Reprisal killings were also frequent, and respected neither gender, nor age. Yet the Nazis at least matched their victims to designated pits for the slaughters.

As bloodthirsty as they appeared, the Nigerian police thugs I saw on Al-Jazeera actually lacked sadistic ingenuity. The shooting of unarmed teenaged cripples, in the back, in broad daylight, after they were forced to lay face-down beside their crutches, was heinous crime. It was a disgraceful affront to humanity, and quickly moved me to tears!

Surely, the authorities have no intention of sweeping this outrage under the carpet. The perpetrators of this genocide, including the incompetent President that gave the 'shoot on sight' order to the murderous cowards in Nigerian Police uniforms must be brought to book, and quickly!


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