The International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned that Zimbabwe could slide back into turmoil if the military leadership and others loyal to Mugabe are allowed to continue blocking reforms necessary for economic and political stability.

In its latest assessment of the country's year old coalition government the ICG said although there have been some achievements made, 'the democratic transition remains at risk, especially from hard-line security officials' fiercely loyal to the 86-year old ZANU PF leader.

The report titled 'Zimbabwe: Political and Security Challenges to the Transition' says it is very possible the country could see a return of the problems that were present one year ago. Africa Program Director François Grignon said the military and other loyalists in ZANU-PF 'are using their symbiotic relationship with the state apparatus to exercise veto power over the transition. A mature political system must develop, so ZANU-PF and the MDC engage as both competitors in politics and partners in government.'

The group said against all odds the coalition started well, 'schools and hospitals re-opened; civil servants were paid and returned to work; hyperinflation was halted; goods returned to store shelves; a cholera epidemic was controlled and human rights activists reported a significant drop in abuses.' This progress is however under threat from a small number of 'securocrats' who oppose reforms, motivated by the 'fear of losing power, wealth and impunity,' the ICG said.

The ICG believe South African President Jacob Zuma and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) need to press the political parties, and Mugabe especially to successfully conclude the transition. 'Western donors should back their efforts, including expanding assistance, keeping targeted sanctions on spoilers but also by ending sanctions on firms important for economic growth,' the group added.