Nigeria: Recession - Nigerian Style (1)

opinion

The buzzword all over the world today is global recession, also known as global economic meltdown. In reminiscence of the post-World War 2 experience, all hands are on deck to ensure it does not deteriorate into a depression, when everything goes burst in a socio-economic sense.

This recession came upon the world like a bolt from the blue, even though global macroeconomists say we had it coming, with poor risk evaluation in bank lending habits, a mad rush for stock investments and a laissez faire global consumption pattern. Some even say that with global warming and climate change waiting on the wings to weigh in with their own devastating routine, worse is still to come, especially for the hapless population in the Third World - the garbage bin of the global enterprise.

It must be said, knowingly, that the phenomenon has offered mismanaged economies in endemic recession, such as Nigeria's, a chance to lunge into the global scene with undeserved similitude. Everyone is blaming it for our every woe, even when the truth lies elsewhere.

Being barely above an economics illiterate, forget any suggestions of intellectual swagger, I sought succour from a dictionary to navigate me through definitions. And an Oxford Advanced Learner's English Dictionary defines recession thus: a period when the economy of a country is not successful, business conditions are bad, industrial production and trade are at a low level and there is a lot of unemployment. The reader must by now be seeing Nigeria's image in the mirror, for this is exactly our squat, and has been for decades now. We have been at this sorry pass a wee bit longer than the rest of the world, which explains why we seem to be calm while other peoples are fidgety and scampering.

My smattering economics equates this scenario with declining income. That is, low earning power and, therefore, poor spending power. This, once again, using basic economic parameters, means dwindling demand. If demand, a key variable determining prices, falls then prices are expected to plummet in kind. Price profiles should nosedive. So why are the prices of goods and services not falling in Nigeria? Simple, we do not respond to classical economic precepts. Prices are fixed by variables and factors of voodoo economics. Extra-terrestrial hands run us and our economy. Friends of our government, given full official backing, fix prices for us. Prices that are based on whims than the laws of demand and supply. Or cost considerations. Or even common sense. This is why in this country, quite unlike everywhere else in the world, prices do not obey the well-known gravitational law, which states that whatever goes up must come down. This explains why rather than fall as expected, costs here keep soaring.

I was inspired to do this discourse because of the notice served us, tongue in cheek but not refuted, that by October 2009, Nigerians would begin to pay more for petroleum products. Well, before that October came and went the 'Pontius Pilate' of that grim projection went AWOL, thank goodness. But let us not go into that to save everyone blushes. This is, therefore not an attempt at putting Mr Gooluck Jonathan through his paces.

Then, as now, the hackneyed subsidy removal - some call it appropriate pricing - was at the fore. The reasoning, in sublime wisdom, was that the common people for whom the subsidy was provided have not shown any evidence of benefiting. They, therefore, need to be jolted to life by, wait for it, removing the subsidy, which translates to increasing downstream pump prices. The pitiable people in a receding economy will benefit by paying more for kerosene, inexorably paying higher transport fares and coping with the inevitable inflationary trend. If the eggheads propagating this gospel are not voodoo economists, I would like to know who is.

Now let us take just another implication of this mindset. The whole world, including us, is embroiled in the global warming/climate change scare. Of course, anyone not already feeling the pangs does not stand under our tropical high-noon which is now as hot as Siberia is cold. In Nigeria, everyone, especially those in the Federal Ministry of environment, is in one breath pretending to be worried about deforestation and its impacts on the environments capacity to scavenge greenhouse gases, notably responsible for global warming. A multibillion Naira aforestation program is, in fact, ongoing all over the country. Great official policy thrust! Yet, in another breath, here we are contemplating how to force more people to resort to the use of wood-fuels by making kerosene unaffordable. Any need overstating that it is our normal practice - one Lilliputian step forward, and two mega-strides backwards?

It is expected that now that we have a brand new helmsman, we will also be blessed with brand new people-oriented policies. In fact, Dr Godluck Jonathan, the acting President, in a recent briefing vowed in front of television cameras that all government policies are aimed at benefiting the common people. He sounded so convincing and was nearly believed. Now we know better, the removal of the so-called petroleum subsidy is one of the surefire benefits. In other words our expectation that the coming of this harmless-looking lucky man will herald a new era of respite and a breath of fresh air is a non-starter. It would seem that the new C-in-C does not see a need to get his troubled tenure off to a great start, especially considering how direly he needs the support of all Nigerians in these giddy times. It will be interesting to see how he convinces us that the best way to get Nigerians to benefit from subsidy is to remove it. So much for the 'good-luck' man. But who can miss the purport of Danjuma's recent admonition for Mr Jonathan: Hurry up to act now that there is enough public support. Give it to them. This is it! All the draconian wheels will probably need to be urgently reinvented to underline our support


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